Kelly Pavlik doesn’t give undisputed junior middleweight champion Jermell Charlo 35-1-1 (19) much of a chance at upsetting undisputed super middleweight champion Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez 59-2-2 (3) when they meet at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on September 30.
The 33-year-old Charlo of Texas will be jumping up two weight classes, equal to 14 pounds, to take on the biggest challenge of his 16 year professional career.
Retired former WBC and WBO middleweight champion Pavlik doesn’t think Jermell or his twin brother and WBC middleweight champion Jermall Charlo 32-0 (22) would have much of a hope against 33-year-old Mexican superstar Alvarez.
“I think Canelo is too much for them [the Charlo brothers]. Jermell has shown problems in fights that really weren’t elite-level guys. Can he steal a fight? Yeah. Can he crack? Absolutely,” Pavlik said to MillCity Boxing.
“I see Canelo winning that fight unless he can get Canelo in the later rounds and [Jermell’s] conditioning takes over because we have seen Canelo fade in the later rounds, but I think that really caught up to Canelo when he fought at light heavyweight against [Dmitry] Bivol.”
While he doesn’t expect Charlo to win, Pavlik doesn’t see him getting knocked out and says the scorecards could be somewhat close.
“I think that one will go the distance. I think Canelo will slow him down with body shots and, for the most part, will win that fight by decision,” he said.
“I see Charlo winning some of the later rounds. He’ll keep it somewhat close. Not by a wide margin, but 117-111, something like that. I think Jermall [would do better against Canelo] due to natural size.
“Canelo is used to being hit by 175-pound. Not only that, but in sparring. When you’re talking about sparring some of the light heavyweights in training, some of them might be walking around at 185-190. He’s used to that and that is an advantage that Canelo has.”
Pavlik believes Alvarez’s big fight experience, notably against Gennadiy Golovkin across three fights, will make the difference.
“Canelo fought GGG and Danny Jacobs, who, at the time, was the other top guy at middleweight,” Pavlik said. “He did what he had to do. He [Canelo] went to 168 and did what he had to do at 168.
“Then he went to 175 and fought the toughest guy. We knew how dangerous that was for Canelo to go up and fight a monster like Bivol.
“[Canelo] has by far the best resume in boxing. Canelo has had one of the best careers.”
One of the last remaining challenges for Alvarez at super middleweight is David Benavidez 27-0 (23). The undefeated 26-year-old American contender has a believer in Pavlik.
“Benavidez is a bad dude. He can fight. He’s young, he’s hungry, he’s strong and he’s out there to get his dues. If Benavidez has the opportunity to fight Canelo, he’s not only going to beat Canelo, but he’s going to make a statement,” said Pavlik.
“Does Canelo do that right now? No, he don’t. I think the Charlo fight is a good one because it can possibly shut people up for a little bit.
“Maybe go after the brother after this fight or go after [Demetrius] Andrade. If he does beat a guy like Andrade, he’s a weight bully. I think there are some other fights out there [for Canelo]. If I was him, I’d stay away from Benavidez.
“Part of me wants to see it, being a Benavidez fan. I want Benavidez to get that opportunity and get that payday. But on the other hand, I wouldn’t do it.”
