Upset predictions for 2005 from Gilad in Israel and a well thought-out argument for ranking Manny Pacquiao over Marco Antonio Barrera in my P4P rankings from Mike in Canada start out this week’s MMMB. Read on for your questions and comments and my responses on a variety of subjects.
UPSET PREDICTIONS IN 2005
Hey Doug, As we all know 2004 was full of upsets and every year has it’s own. Here are 3 pretty big upsets I predict in 2005, if 2 of them happen I’ll be proud of myself (a true gambler predicts without knowing the fight setup!) :
1. Hatton outpoints Kostya, getting up from a knockdown or two
2. Roy Jones returns for a career ending bout and beats Bernard Hopkins (168 weight)
3. John Ruiz stays unbeaten in 2005, including a W over Chris Byrd
What’s your say on any of those happening and do you have any upsets predictions of your own? Thanks and take care. – Gilad from Tel Aviv
If any one of these scenarios comes true, you’ll become the Nostradamus of boxing, but I can’t see any of this happening. I think John Ruiz has a decent chance of staying undefeated this year, but not against Byrd. Then again, it’s not all that far fetched that the Quietman’s jab-and-grab style throws the Byrdman off his rhythm. Remember the frustrating time Byrd had with Fres Oquendo? Shoot, vs. Ruiz, he’d be in with the Clutch-master. However, if that fight were to be made – and let’s all pray that it doesn’t – I would favor Byrd by close decision. Byrd can out-work Ruiz even if the Quietman’s ugly style makes it hard for him to out-box the New Englander.
After your no. 3 prediction, I’d say your no. 1 has the best chance of actually happening. Although, I think Tszyu would chop Hatton’s face into ground hamburger, it’s possible that the Russian-Aussie could get old over night. Hatton’s got the will power, physical strength and buzz-saw style to give any of the top 140 pounders a hard day’s night (sorry, I had to toss that nod to The Beattles since the Hitman hails from Britain).
The no. 2 prediction is kinda out there, dude. I’m not saying Roy won’t return to the game, but if sweating down to 175 pounds was supposedly the reason for his back-to-back KO losses you gotta figure that making 168 would have him out cold at the weigh-in.
Do I have any early predictions for this year? Not really. I’m still recovering from Danny Williams fever. But I will predict this: we will have a fight of the year candidate before mid-April, and it might not be a major title fight showcased on HBO or Showtime’s championship boxing series as ESPN and ShoBox have recently stepped up their game (although Castillo-Corrales can’t miss).
AN ARGUMENT FOR PACMAN OVER BARRERA
I know your p4p list is your own personal ranking systems and I tried to understand how you could have ranked Barrera over Pacquiao even after the Morales win but I just can’t see it. In reference to one of your replys to an email by a fellow named Jasper, you threw a challenge to make decent arguments why the rankings should be otherwise. Here are my thoughts.
The first argument I’d like to make is to keep in my mind the definition of pound for pound. We’re looking at a fighter’s accomplishments regardless the weight rank he is in. Therfore we are looking at the available opponents and, as you have pointed out, how he has challenged himself throughout his career. Although I wouldn’t rank JMM above Morales, Pac’s performance against him is still very significant. We have to admit that if it wasn’t for the judge’s scoring error, Pac would be holding those titles. We also have to remember that this is only Pac’s THIRD fight at featherweight in which he destroyed MAB in his SECOND fight at the weight class. That’s a pretty aspiring goal that Manny set himself. “Burn a path through Mexico”, Barrera, Marquez, Morales. That’s gutsy and you can’t get any more challenging than that considering the fact that 126 was virtually untested waters for him.
Now if you want to look at Barrera’s record in the last 4-5 years, although it looks impressive on paper, I would look closer. Tapia, Kelley and Ayala were all well passed their primes when they fought Barrera. His second fight with Morales should’ve gone to the latter but he got away with a win. The only impressive wins that I can give him would be Hamed and Morales3 in which I give him full credit for.
Manny Pacquiao last lost came at the hands of Singsurat when he was 21. A body shot on his badly dehydrated body was all it took. On his very next fight, his first at a new division, he took a title. He took out a very good prospect in Ledwaba in 6 rounds in which he was a late substitute, 2 weeks before the bout. Now I don’t know if you saw the Sanchez fight to criticize Manny for the draw, but it was clear that he should have been ahead specially with the dirty tactics of his opponent. How a judge scored Sanchez ahead of Manny after 6 is mind boggling. Though he was dropped by Yeshmangetov, Pacquiao knocked him out the next round. Hey, people get lucky shots in once in a while. To shorten the argument, Manny Pacquiao has been knocking out guys left and right. His last win on points was back in 1997. He started as a flyweight, who fought his way to 126 and he rumbled with the very best of them, destroying the myth of Marco along his way.
The bottom line is both fighters are tremendous champions with their respective accomplishments. However, November 15 came the X factor at the Alamadome in San Antonio Texas. Despite being the overwhelming crowd favorite, Marco Antonio Barrera was dethroned in his own backyard, in front of his own people. That alone in my opinion should have given Pacquaio the edge on any list. If you we’re to make an argument about the caliber of competition, I wouldn’t give Barrera that much of an edge. In any case, IF caliber of competition beats consistancy, Hopkins shouldn’t be number 1 on your list (although I have him ranked 1st in mine as well). Regards – Mike, Montreal, Canada
If you recall, I asked our friend Jasper to make an argument that Juan Manuel Marquez deserved to be ranked higher, pound-for-pound than Erik Morales was when Barrera beat him. And then I asked him to make an argument that Manny Pacquiao has had a more accomplished career than Barrera, especially in the last four or five years. Jasper never replied to my challenge, so I must give you your props for going for it.
You’ve made a great argument for why PacMan should be a top 10 pound-for-pound fighter, and indeed he is, but you’ve haven’t convinced me that he should be ranked over Barrera in a pound-for-pound sense.
You believe Pacquiao should have won that fight with Juan Manuel Marquez. Fine. But you have to realize that just as many fans think JMM should have won it and I thought it was legitimately a draw, but for the sake of argument let’s say that Pacquiao did beat JMM and won the WBA and IBF belts to go with his Ring title. Hands down he’s the best featherweight in the world. But Barrera stepped up from 126 pounds this year to take on the top dog at 130 pounds, old rival Erik Morales, who had won both the WBC and IBF titles in ’04, and he beat him. What’s the bigger win? Out-pointing Marquez or Morales? I think the Morales win should hold more weight. Why? Like you agree, ‘El Terrible’ is a better fighter, pound-for-pound, than Marquez. Anyone who wants to dispute this should ask themselves two simple questions: Who has Morales beat? And who has Marquez beat? Compare the ledgers and you have your answer on who the better Mexican fighter is. So if you talk about what both PacMan and Barrera have done THIS YEAR, I have to give the edge to Barrera.
Now let’s go through the last couple of years for both fighters. Last year, of course, PacMan had the better year. He kicked Barrera’s ass up and down that Texas ring. But the year before, 2002, Barrera beat Morales in their rematch. On the same card, I believe, PacMan exploded onto the scene with his KO of Lehlo Ledwaba – a good solid pro title holder, but who had the South African beat? John Michael Johnson? A Mexican journeyman named Carlos Contreras? There can be no debating that Barrera beat the better fighter that night. However, you don’t think Barrera won that fight (sheesh, you probably think Morales won the first fight). In fact, you don’t think Barrera’s had any significant wins in the last five years aside from his 2001 undressing of Naseem Hamed and his recent win over Morales. OK. I totally disagree with you, but let’s say for the sake of argument that all Barrera did in the last four years was beat Naz and El Terrible in the rubbermatch. That STILL outweighs everything PacMan has done since 2001!
At the time Barrera fought Hamed and Morales, both were considered to be Top 5 pound-for-pound fighters (look it up if you don’t believe me). In fact, they were in the Top 3 on many lists. Now I ask you this, Mike: Has PacMan defeated TWO Top 5 P4P fighters in the past five years? No he hasn’t. He’s defeated one – Marco Antonio Barrera. Two beats out one, Mikey. Edge in recent accomplishments: Barrera.
Now let’s look at their quality of opposition. You yourself admit that Barrera has a “slight” edge in this department, but I beg to differ. I think Barrera has taken on MUCH better competition over the course of his career. Barrera has fought 15 world champions, and has only lost to Junior Jones, Morales and Pacquiao. How can you fault him for that? (How can ANYONE of sound mind fault that!?) It’s not like Barrera has ever been beat up by some bum. Only MULTI-division champions have bested him in the ring. Meanwhile, Pacquaio got starched by a journeyman named Rustico Torrecampo early in his career. The guy who beat him for the WBC flyweight tile (Medgoen Singsurat) was, and still is, a darn good fighter, but he lost the belt in his second title defense and has been KO’d three times since beating Manny. (By the way, don’t make such a big deal out of the fact that Manny started out as a flyweight – so did Barrera. Both guys turned pro when they were teenagers. Barrera probably could have won a title at 115 pounds if he was given the opportunity, but that’s back when the WBC and his old manager were hating on each other.) And as for that Agapito Sanchez fight back in November of 2001, I was ringside. Sanchez did fight a dirty fight (when does he NOT fight a dirty fight?), but he was also nailing PacMan with right hands with his eyes closed. PacMan was frustrated all night with Sanchez and almost got himself DQ’d with his histrionics in the corner after he got cut in the face. There was a ton of Filipino fans who were there to cheer their countryman on, but many of them told me after the fight that they thought Manny was crying too much and seemed about to quit before the ref stopped it and took it to the scorecards. The bottom line is this: Torrecampo, Singsurat and Sanchez do not come close to being in the same league as Junior Jones, Morales and Pacquiao. Barrera has not only beaten the better fighters (Eddie Cook, Jesse Benevides, Kennedy McKinney, Hamed, Tapia, and Morales), he’s LOST to the better fighters. Edge in quality of opposition: Barrera.
So there you have it, Mike. You may still disagree with me – and you are certainly have a right to do so – but that’s my reasoning for raking Barrera ahead of Pacquiao on my most recent P4P list. Hopefully, a rematch can be made at 126 or 130 pounds this year and the two can settle it in the ring.
THE HITMAN VS. THE BULL
Juan Roldan Vs Tommy Hearns…can you get it for us? Could we get that on X-files? – MO
That would be a great one for the X-Files. It all depends on who promoted the bout and whether or no they are willing to work with us, MO. I’ve never seen the fight, so I’d love to watch for the first time on my own website. X-Files is due back at the end of this month with another Arturo Gatti scrap from the vault.
EVIL RESPONSE IN THE FFMB
yo dougie, whats with your response to that carmen guy in the mailbag, did i read it wrong. he wasnt insulting or anything, did i miss something? – Ian Keogh
Ahhhhhhh that dude was trying to be sarcastic. He’s written me before. He thought I was trying to discredit Vitali Klitschko’s win over Danny Williams by saying the big-ass Brit was fat (which I never stated). At any rate, a lot of cats are hating on Valero just because I think so highly of him as a fighter. They can keep hatin’, too. It’s a moot point if the kid can’t get his license back. But if he does, oh man, the s__t I will be talkin’ will make that response to Carmen seem like a Hallmark greeting card. Hey, speaeking of talkin’ s__t, look who’s back:
THE INCOMPREHENSIBLE WRATH OF CHUCKY
toney weight lose to jones dumbass. for many reasons and you no them michael morre. I guess you forgot what jones did to guys like Johnson before he moved back down from heavyweight. Tarver sucks any fighter in the top p4p mayweather, hopkins, etc, dominates guys like the glenn johnsons. So stop all this tarver justifcation talk okay. thank you and by the way i love all the excuses you made for barrera when he got stretched by pacman from the distraction from his camp being moved to the plate in his head. lol but when jones odviously looks different since moving down in weight you fell to always mention that like johnson and tarver beat a great fighter. hey doug did you have trevor berbick and leon spinks, and larry holmes in you top five p4p in the early 80’s for beating up a shadow of himself ali. Of course you did not your such a joke and a manipulating asss bitch. Lol – Charles
Happy New Year, Chucky. Now kiss my half-breed ass!
MIGHTY MIKE ANCHONDO
How did Mighty Mike do against Valero in sparring? What are his chances against Morales or Barrera? Thanks for your time – Juan
Mighty Mike’s my man, but I heard that he had to run for his life when he was in there with Valero. I can’t verify that report since I wasn’t there, but I trust my sources. As far as personalities go in boxing, Anchondo is one of the best, but as a fighter, he’s still got a lot to learn. Most of what he’s accomplished thus far has been from natural talent and strength of will. Anchondo has John David Jackson training him now, so he should improve a lot in terms of his technique and defense. I think Anchondo is a very good young fighter and I believe that he will beat the very tough Jorge Barrios this Spring, but I don’t think he’s ready for Barrera or Morales yet. However, youth is on his side. However, let’s see how he does vs. Barrios before we even talk about Anchondo vs. Barrera or Morales.
JACK JOHNSON DOCUMENTARY ON PBS
Doug, Happy New Year to all MaxBoxing staffers and members. I want to alert everyone that Ken Burns has made a documentary about Jack Johnson, entitled “Unforgivable Blackness: The Rise and Fall of Jack Johnson” and its scheduled to be shown on PBS in January. If this documentary is of the same calibre as Mr. Burns’ previous work (Civil War, Baseball) boxing fans are in for a rare treat indeed. – Thanks, Jody Dubick
I’m not much of a Civil War buff and I think the people who are interviewed for EVERY baseball documentary get way too mushy about the subject, but I enjoyed Burns’ series on jazz that came out a few years ago. I have no doubt that he will present a fair, balanced, accurate and compelling profile of Johnson (and the era that he dominated) with the kind of class and high production value that the great champion deserves.
PAYIN’ P4P DUES
DOUGIE, THANKS FOR EXPLAINING YOUR CONCEPT OF RANKING POUND 4 POUND FIGHTERS BASED ON WHAT THEY HAVE DONE OVER THE PAST 3 YEARS. BUT TRY TO UNDERSTAND THAT 3 YEARS IS A DAMN LONG TIME AND A FIGHTER CAN GO FROM GREAT TO S__T IN THAT PERIOD. NEXT TIME, YOU OUGHT TO PUT OUT A TOP 10 LIST FOR THE FIGHTERS AS THEY STAND TODAY, NOT UP TO 3 YEARS AGO. IF YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT THE LAST 3 YEARS THEN ROY JONES STILL DESERVES SOME RECOGNITION, BUT HE’S NOWHERE NEAR THE TOP OF THE HEAP NOW.
I WAS BUMMED OUT THAT MY E-MAIL DIDN’T MAKE THE MAIL BAG. WHAT DO I HAVE TO BUY A MEMBERSHIP TO GET SOME RECOGNITION? (P.S. WHAT HAS TSZYU DONE IN THE PAST 3 YEARS OTHER THAN BEATING AN OLD AND INFLATED LEIJA AND BEATING MITCHELL (AGAIN)? WHAT IS HE 2-0 IN THAT TIME FRAME? ) – THE SHO
You are exactly right, SHO, a fighter can go “from great to s__t” in three years. That’s why the fighters who stay on top of their game and at the top of their divisions for four and five years straight – like Bernard Hopkins, Floyd Mayweather and your hero Kostya Tszyu – should be recognized for their accomplishments and continued excellence.
It generally takes two or three years of blood, sweat and tears for a fighter to work his way up to the elite level of the Top 10 pound for pound. I explained all of this in my P4P mail bag (using Nard as an example). To not factor in what a fighter has done in recent years allows one-hit wonders to get inside the Top 5 and 10 and that messes up the entire rankings.
SCORING QUESTION
What up Dougie; while reading the mail bag, I noticed that you agreed with the 10-7 score of one of the judges for the pac-man marquez fight (who by the way, admitted he made a mistake)….. Are you serious? Knocking a guy down once will give the fighter a 10-8 round (unless the guy that got knocked down was kicking the other guys azz most of the round) and scoring a 2nd knock down will the fighter a 10-7 edge for the round. Scoring 2 knockdowns in a round vs. scoring 1 will give the fighter a better score for the round; so why wouldn’t scoring 3 knockdowns vs. scoring 2 give the fighter a better score for the round? There’s no logic in that. That’s like saying scoring three knockdowns is the same as scoring two. Please explain yourself. – Chad
Point deductions for knockdowns are not automatic or mandatory – though many fans and some judges think it is. In truth, it is at the discretion of the judge.
I don’t always make a round 10-8 when a knockdown is scored. It depends on the type of knockdown. If it’s a flash, or more of a slip, and the guy who was dropped isn’t hurt and he still fights back or boxes well, I will only take one point from him. And I sometimes score a round 10-8 when there is no knockdown at all if one fighter is beating the hell out of the other fighter for three minutes without any sort of resistance.
Regarding the first round of Pacquiao-Marquez, I’ll just say this: not all knockdowns are created equal and you have to score all three minutes of a given round, not just the knockdowns.
People forget that Marquez was doing quite well in the first minute and half of that opening round before he was caught by a lightening bold of a left from PacMan. The first big left landed by Pacquiao caught JMM by surprise. He got up steady legs. The second knockdown busted his nose and shook him up a bit. The third knockdown was more of a push after JMM got trapped and tangled in the ropes. Marquez was more concerned with keeping PacMan from nailing him in the back of the head then keeping his balance. I don’t have a problem with anyone scoring that round 10-6, but I think 10-7 was justifiable. And I could care less if the judge who made it 10-7 said he screwed up.
Fight fans these days seem to have no memory of fights that took place three or four years ago, but if you recall the Mayweather-Corrales showdown back in early 2000, Pretty Boy Floyd dropped Chico three times in the seventh round. Corrales did not land one significant punch during that entire round (in fact, he didn’t land a decent punch all night), yet all three official judges scored that round 10-7. In fact, I believe HBO’s un-official official Harold Lederman scored that round 10-7 (despite saying after Pacquiao-Marquez that you HAD to take a point for each knockdown). Did they all screw up? No. Like I said, it’s up to the judge’s discretion.
