This should be a great fight and from a wagering perspective the value afforded by taking Marquez at +185 is definitely attractive. That notwithstanding, I’m of the opinion that the most likely outcome will be a Pacquiao decision victory.
There’s a strange dynamic at play in this fight as Marquez almost seems overconfident based on what transpired in the first meeting. That’s almost counter-intuitive based on the fact that Marquez very nearly didn’t make it out of the first round, but from the tone in his prefight comments it’s almost as if he thinks he’s got Pacquiao “figured out”. I’m not suggesting that Marquez is underestimating Pacquiao, but I get the vibe that he may think that by executing the same fight plan he did in rounds 2 through 12 four years ago he’ll outbox his opponent en route to a decision win.
Marquez wouldn’t be delusional by thinking this as its basically what transpired in the first fight. He suggests that he was a little too relaxed entering round 1 and underestimated the effectiveness of his opponent’s straight left. After “PacMan” dominated from the opening bell using his straight left from the southpaw stance–knocking Marquez down three times in the process–it became readily apparent that the Mexican boxer would have to negate this weapon.
To the credit of both the fighter and his cornermen, he did just that: after spending most of round 2 trying to shake out the cobwebs and get his legs back underneath him Marquez put on a boxing clinic for the rest of the fight en route to a split decision draw that many observers (myself included) thought he had won.
After Marquez was able to survive his initial onslaught, it appeared that Pacquiao became somewhat tentative (by his lofty standards at least) and allowed his opponent to slow down the pace of the fight. While giving due credit to Marquez’s toughness and chin, Freddie Roach has suggested that his fighter injured his left hand during the opening barrage and was unable to put an end to the fight when he had the chance.
The bottom line, however, was that be it due to injury and/or tactical adjustments by Marquez after the first round Pacquiao’s left hand became a “non factor”. Based on what he experienced between the ropes it would be understandable for Marquez to be confident and to feel that he “deserved” to win–he withstood the best shots of arguably the most explosive fighter in the sport and outboxed his opponent the rest of the way.
The fallacy in this concept is that in the intervening four years Pacquiao has very clearly become a better, more complete fighter while Marquez could very well have just become an older fighter.
Freddy Roach has done an impressive job in re-engineering Pacquiao: he’s integrated the right hand into his arsenal and taught his fighter a greater degree of tactical discipline while not negating the unpredictability of his punching angles. While it might seem that a more traditional- style Pacquiao would be an advantage for Marquez in my estimation it’s completely the opposite–it’ll allow Pacquiao to change up the pace of the fight and keep Marquez off balance. Pacquiao can go on offense in flurries and revert to a more measured approach in between.
Much of Marquez’s success in the first fight came from his ability to dictate tempo. Pacquiao’s insane workrate may have slowed somewhat, but he’s still got the ability to fight at a tempo that more traditional boxers find uncomfortable. If “PacMan” can demonstrate his newfound aptitude with the right hand and push the pace of the fight he’ll be able to keep Marquez on the defensive en route to a decision victory. Conversely, if Marquez is able to lure Pacquiao into a more methodical fight he’ll definitely be in a position to win. Assuming that the Pacquiao braintrust realizes what a significant advantage an uptempo fight affords their fighter I don’t see this happening a second time.
Juan Manuel Marquez is one of the toughest and most technically gifted boxers in the game today. In this fight, however, he’s fighting a younger opponent who’s demonstrated in the ring that he’s learned from the mistakes he made the first time around. The 2008 version of Manny Pacquiao is a significantly improved and more multi-dimensional opponent than his 2004 counterpart. While there’s very few boxers whom I admire more than Marquez, I’m afraid the same can’t be said for him.
