THERE?S an adage in boxing which I subscribe to when making a prediction. It?s when they say, ?You?re only as good as your last fight.?
Well, not religiously anyway, as I usually tailor it to a boxer?s last three or four fights.
A lot of things have happened since the last time Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez met. The former has fought eight times, losing once. Marquez wasn?t too shabby either, compiling a 7-1 record since that controversial draw.
Fighters learn a lot from these fights. And so, it?s probably safe to declare that Marquez and Pacquiao are not the same fighters that they were four years ago. Having said that, the level of opposition that these fighters have faced will be a telling factor in the rematch.
Rocky Juarez and Chris John, the best names on Marquez?s list, are pretty decent, but I?ll pick the Mexican pair of Erik Morales and Oscar Larios anytime.
MANNY BY KO IN TEN. To me, the first fight proved two things. First is the fact that Manny?s left hand can take Marquez down and there?s no reason to believe things will be any different in the rematch.
Unless of course, in the interim period, Marquez underwent dental surgery to implant cement in his jaws.
That being said, Manny?s job is 50 percent easier in the rematch. All he has to do is to properly place his punches to get the job done. Like an ardent suitor on viagra, his left hand will be hounding Marquez?s jaw all night long.
Second is that Marquez is a better boxer than Manny. You don?t overhaul a 10-6 deficit in the first round (on two judges) and salvage a draw if you can?t fight a lick.
Taking the foregoing into consideration, I see a very competitive fight with plenty of two-way action. But Manny?s power and volume punching will wear down Marquez in round 10.
EMAIL. My last column on the three possible scenarios for a Pacquiao win elicited a generous cache of responses.
Byron Baker ([email protected]) says he liked scenario No. 2 best.
Harold Villarin of Cordova, Cebu ([email protected]) says, ?If Pacman?s defense will answer counterpunches of Marquez, Pacman will land the harder punches and win via ninth round stoppage, and if Marquez survives for 12 rounds, still Pacman will take home the clear cut decision.?
An interesting feedback that I received was from Michael Lopez, a Mexican-American based in Cebu who says, ?You?re looking at the fight as a Pacquiao fan. That?s cool. Now here is my prediction, not because I?m Mexican, but because this is what I saw in the first fight. Marquez underestimated the outside punch of Manny, but he turned it around and fought smart, which a great fighter will do. Marquez will fight inside and pressure Pacquiao and he will panic. Don?t get me wrong, Pacquiao is great, but he will go down in Round 10! But Marquez must fight inside, anything else is suicide.?
Thanks for your email, Michael. However, I believe a clarification is in order.
I wish I could, as it would simplify matters, but I cannot make my predictions solely based on the fact that I?m a fan of a certain boxer. I was denied that luxury the day I started penning this column.
So just like you, who?s making a prediction not because you?re a Mexican, I have to transcend my inherent biases brought about by my nationality or a fondness for a particular fighter. I?m picking Pacquiao to win this fight based on my impassive assessment of both fighters? capabilities.
PREDICTIONS. Prosecutor Bienvenido Mabanto: ?Pacquiao must win by knock out, otherwise Marquez will outbox him to win the decision.?
Atty. Joselito ?The Muhammad? Alo: ?Pacquiao by KO in 5 rounds.?
LAST ROUND. It?s on lovely couple Roel and Erdith Mayol who are celebrating their 8th wedding anniversary today. Their union has been blessed with two wonderful kids, Marie Raphaelle and Jose Raphael. Cheers!
