Human emotion can sway a person’s outlook and thought process if not kept properly in check. This simple dynamic plays itself over and over again in the lives of billions of homo sapiens each and every day.
As we approach Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez’s long awaited return bout Saturday night many fans, experts, gamblers and writers are allowing their emotions get the better of their fight prognosticating.
I have read and heard many times in the recent weeks about how Juan Manuel Marquez will out box and counter-punch Manny Pacquiao; how this victory will be the crown jewel on Marquez’s professional resume.
Warm feelings of admiration for Marquez, who has toiled in the shadows of the names Barrera and Morales for the majority of his career, and disdain for Pacquiao’s fanatic supporters might be getting in the way of good judgment.
Juan Manuel is somewhat of a tough luck story in boxing. The majority of Marquez’s career was spent with a promoters (Top Rank and Forum Boxing) who did not position him into the marquee bouts he deserved during his prime. Four years ago, at the age of 30, Marquez got the call against a rising Pacquiao. The first round is a thing of legend with Juan Manuel hitting the canvas three times via the Filipino’s left hand. Juan picked himself off the mat and managed to brilliantly fight himself to a draw.
In a fight where Marquez was at his physical peak and Manny had not reached his, being 25 at the time of the bout, the parties had to live with a controversial tie. Marquez survived a violent scare and Pacquiao hung on to a draw by the skin of his teeth.
Since then Marquez has had seven fights (six victories and one win), including a victory over Marco Antonio Barrera, but going into Saturday night, Marquez is on his last legs as a prize fighter.
It feels good to pick Marquez. He is not a braggart, but a gentlemen. The majority of his talking is done inside the ring under the watchful eye of no nonsense trainer Ignacio ?Nacho? Beristain. In a perfect world ?Dinamita? would have been atop the featherweight division eight years ago, but that was not and is not the case. A victory over the now dominant Pacquiao would help wash the bitter taste of opportunities which never were for Marquez.
You cannot write the bureaucratic and political wrong of the sport by picking a clear underdog and unlikely victor as your dog going into this fight. And that is exactly what is being done by many who are picking Marquez.
Pacquiao is in his prime, having honed his skills with trainer Freddie Roach over the last five years. While the hell like fury which characterized Manny prior to the first fight is still there, the fires have been tamed and are a controlled burn. The reckless aggression which served him well in his youth is now unleashed on his opponents in selected spots. Once a primarily left-handed fighter, Pacquiao has introduced a right-hand into his arsenal, as well a much more balanced stance before and after his punches.
So are these experts who pick Marquez looking at the Mexican solely looking through the lenses of rose-colored glasses?
Maybe, but that would simplify the dynamic a tad.
Pacquiao is one of the prime figures in the sport today and nobody likes a winner, all the time. The Boston Celtic of the 1960s, the New York Yankees in different eras, and the San Francisco Giants of the 1980s are all examples of fine athletic teams who were hated by many and picked to loss at every possible corner because of their success.
While boxing is not a team sport, Manny Pacquiao is the closest thing to a team. He is Team Philippines. The support he receives from his countrymen across the globe is something rarely seen in boxing. While in the United States, pound for pound maestro Floyd Mayweather is novelty to the general public, Pacquiao is an icon in the Philippines.
Success, accompanied by a loud and at times, boxing ignorant fan base, has fueled a strong sense of disdain for Pacquiao by some. Many believe that Manny’s followers discuss Manny and boxing with out a strong knowledge base of the sport. These boxing blue bloods, who love their sport, feel like the high society at a golf match when Tiger Woods is playing; their beloved sport has been intruded on by the low lifes and simpletons. Yes, boxing does have an intellectual elite, visit any highly visited message board focusing on the sport for a taste of the snobbery.
More so than by technical analysis, I argue that many who have picked Juan Manuel to win are allowing their feelings for Juan Manuel and Manny’s brood get the best of their judgment.
As for me, I see Manny knocking out Juan Manuel in the late rounds. Having already outlined Manny’s improvement, another point to consider is each mans’ bout with Marco Antonio Barrera last year. Juan Manuel squeaked out a victory and was even knocked down by the faded Barrera. Manny, while cautious, easily dominated ?The Baby Faced Assassin? If Juan Manuel was still prime time in his abilities, his victory should have looked more like Manny’s display.
