A couple of months ago I was in a Phoenix bar with two of Arizona?s best sportswriters. The subject turned to boxing. Manny Pacquiao?s name surfaced. I told the table I might be the only boxing writer who was ringside for both of Pacquiao?s 2007 fights and Juan Manuel Marquez?s November fight in Tucson.
?And the Pacquiao who fought in San Antonio and Las Vegas couldn?t beat that Marquez,? I said.
The veteran boxing writer beside me shrugged and said, ?It won?t be the same Pacquiao.?
It better not be. Saturday in Las Vegas, when Pacquiao and Marquez fight for Marquez?s WBC super featherweight title, Pacquiao better be a more aggressive man than he was in October and a more serious professional than he was in April. Otherwise, he will not win this rematch.
Yes, it?s a rematch. That?s a point that is sometimes ? and perhaps harmlessly ? forgotten by fans. It has been almost four years, and 15 collective fights, since Pacquiao-Marquez I ended in a split draw. Both guys have gained five pounds. Both guys have undergone stylistic revisions. And both guys have lost once.
Because he has become the brighter star since then, Pacquiao?s technical changes have enjoyed more attention. But Marquez?s new identity shouldn?t be overlooked.
In November, Marquez outclassed and outslugged Rocky Juarez. He was expected to outclass Juarez. Marquez is arguably the best stylist of his generation. But Marquez wasn?t expected to handle Juarez quite as roughly as he did.
After benefitting early from an accidental collision of heads that opened a gash over Juarez?s left eye, Marquez traded punches freely. Then he did something audacious. He threw a right uppercut lead. It was audacity to the edge of recklessness. It was also a complete departure from the cautious tactician Marquez used to be.
Meanwhile, just throwing a right hand, for Pacquiao, marks a complete departure from the fighter he used to be. That fighter, an explosive southpaw with a peerless left cross, tended to use his right hand as little more than a rangefinder. He jabbed with it rarely and hooked with it even less ? until October.
When Pacquiao fought Marco Antonio Barrera last fall, he did more boxing than people expected. Or necessarily appreciated. It was a tough assignment for Pacquiao. He was up against an intelligent man whose sole desire was to hear the final bell. Barrera engaged only when endangered. After struggling mightily to make weight, Pacquiao was all too happy to cruise to a decision.
But Barrera was still Barrera. He was the same guy who?d hurt, and been hurt by, Marquez six months before. That sentence is telling. Boxing Marquez much as he would box Pacquiao, Barrera found himself hurt worse by ? and able to hurt better ? Marquez than Pacquiao.
Then there was what happened in San Antonio. After winning his trilogy with Erik Morales, signing as many contracts as promoters could slide under his pen and launching a congressional campaign in the Philippines, Pacquiao went to the Alamodome in April, expecting an easy night against Jorge Solis.
Things didn?t start well. Pacquiao was at best 75 percent. Leaping in, he occasionally impaled himself on Solis? jab. Then an accidental head butt changed everything. The sight of his own blood made Pacquiao maniacal. He stopped calculating consequences and went straight after Solis. Moments later, he?d stopped him.
In preparing for Marquez, we?ve been told, Pacquiao has encountered none of the distractions he subjected himself to last year. Word is, he?s once more the focused punching machine people called ?Pacman.? He?s had a long training camp in Los Angeles. And he?s had good sparring with undefeated super featherweight Juan Garcia.
As it pertains to making predictions for this rematch, honestly, Pacquiao-Marquez I is not very instructive. Pacquiao knocked Marquez down thrice in the first round. Marquez won most of the 11 that followed. Both men are different fighters today. But their first fight remains instructive in one way.
It was a phenomenal scrap.
A couple of weekends ago I was in a Los Angeles bar ? would you believe I don?t drink? ? with the owners of 15rounds.com. The subject never left boxing. Manny Pacquiao?s name dominated much of the conversation. When Pacquiao?s first fight with Marquez came up, I asked one of the owners if he?d been there.
He nodded. ?The best fight I?ve ever seen from ringside,? he said.
He?s not alone. A number of boxing insiders would list Pacquiao-Marquez I among the best fights they?ve seen from ringside. It began with the surprise of the first stanza ? Pacquiao blowing through Marquez with left crosses ? moved to a momentum swing, saw both men covered in blood and ended in a controversial way.
But in that fight, Marquez was better able to adjust. After being stung by Pacquiao?s crosses, he vowed to take away Pacquiao?s left hand and survive ? or maybe win. With Nacho Beristain coaching him in the corner, Marquez overcame a 10-6 opening round. Quite a feat.
This time, though, Pacquiao has a right hand to complement his left. He also has improved footwork and head movement. He?ll not be as easy to solve in 2008 as he was in 2004.
But Marquez has more faith in his own offensive arsenal. And less faith in judges. Marquez will test Pacquiao in a way Pacquiao?s not been tested since his first fight with Morales, three years ago. Marquez will move better than Barrera and punch harder than Solis. Nothing Pacquiao saw last year has prepared him for Saturday?s fight with Marquez.
But Pacquiao is a special fighter. At least the second best in the world today. He is the favorite until someone beats him. So, since I can?t very well predict a draw, I?ll take Pacquiao: SD-12.
Still, it?s worth pondering what could happen if Pacquiao leaps forward just as Marquez throws a right uppercut lead.
