LAS VEGAS — The last time we saw Tyson Fury and Deontay Wider inside a ring together, all hell broke loose. For most of the night, Fury’s superior boxing skills took Wilder to school. Then, in less time than it took you to read this sentence, Wilder graduated — not with a whimper but with a tremendous bang.
Fury was a master boxer over most of the fight. Then, in the 12th Wilder landed a right cross and dropped his left hand. Wilder threw a vicious right to the head and followed with a left hook, but Fury was already on his way down. The giant fell with a crash and hit his head against the ring floor. It was a small miracle that he was able to pull himself up and finish the fight, which was ruled a draw.
So, they fight again Saturday night for the WBC, The Ring, and lineal heavyweight titles, and we will learn how that knockdown plays into the rematch. Wilder says, “I’m a fighter and I know it’s still on his mind. He will remember it, and that’s going to beat him.”
Conversely, Fury says, “I got up. And that has to be on his mind now, because he threw the best punch he ever threw, but with all his power, I got up.”
One of them learned the lesson of that sequence and figured it right.
But which one?
If you lean toward the boxer, then understand that in the first fight, Fury connected on 36.5 percent of his power punches. He was ahead on my scorecard and the scorecard of judges. For most of the night, Wilder was a fairly easy target. Fury did it because the one weapon Wilder never displayed was the jab. Traditionally, the way to beat a jabber is to jab him first and continually.
Wilder ignored that advice. In so doing, he let Fury control the fight. Except for two sequences, Wilder’s deadly right hand was neutralized.
But if you lean toward Wilder, be aware that Fury calls him a one-trick pony. Maybe so but what a trick he has in his arsenal —the best right hand in all of boxing.
What it comes down to is that Fury has absolutely no margin for error, round after round. Wilder, on the other hand, can make multiple mistakes and wipe them out with a single right hand. He and Fury know it. The blueprint for each is simple:
Fury (29-0-1, 20 KOs) must fight the perfect fight to win a decision, All Wilder (42-0-1, 40 KOs) has to do is throw the perfect punch once. That’s a lot more than a puncher’s chance.
Then there’s the biggest intangible
Fury’s right eye.
Fury fought twice after the draw. The second opponent was Otto Wallin. In the third round, he opened a cut over Fury’s right eye. By the sixth, It grew wider and deeper. The blood was running into the eye and down the side of his face. Then, in a clinch, Wallin rubbed his glove over the wound.
Fury soldiered on and won the decision to save this rematch with Wilder. But they had to put mesh into the wound. It took 47 stitches to close. That was just a little under five months ago. Fury says he is not concerned about it, but he hired a legendary cut man, Stitch Duran, to work his corner.
So who wins?
Look for the fighter who controls the geography of the ring. Fury can’t afford to wind up with his back on the ropes with no escape route as Wilder throws the right. Wilder can’t afford to let him keep the fight in mid-ring. Fury has the jab to control Wilder and pile up enough points to win.
Wilder carries the hammer of Tuscaloosa, Ala., in his right hand, and if he earns the punching room, turn out the lights because the party is over.
Who wins it?
I gave you the blueprint, now it’s on you.
I’ll take a rare hedge on that: a decision will go to Fury, while a knockout belongs to Wilder. And if Fury’s right eye passes the test, on paper, it should be a great fight.
But the last time I looked, they don’t fight on paper.
