Welcome to my mailbag boxing fans. I hope everyone enjoyed watching the Super Bowl, perhaps in the company of friends at a Super Bowl party. Super Bowl parties are one of my favorite kinds of parties to go to. To me Super Bowl parties are all about hanging out with friends, chips, salsa, beer, pizza, gambling…I mean watching the game is completely optional. When I do watch the game I find myself thinking of how much better boxing is than football as a sport.
But enough about American Football, we are all here to talk about boxing. Next Saturday the gap of major televised fights ends (kind of) with the HBO telecast of Paul Williams vs. Carlos Quintana for the WBO Welterweight Championship. I say kind of because Quintana is not the ideal opponent for Williams. In the best and deepest division in boxing today you would think that the matchmakers could have found a more appealing opponent than unranked Miguel Cotto leftovers. We will also get a glimpse of top prospect Andre Berto when he goes against veteran European patsy Michael Trabant. The real next major fight is going to be the week following when boxing fans are treated to Jermain Taylor vs. Kelly Pavlik for the undisputed Middleweight Championship.
Before we get to this week?s questions, I would like to once again laugh at the fickle retirement speeches that Floyd Mayweather proclaims. After his last three or four fights he has said that his career was either over or he was going on a 2-3 year hiatus. Each time, in less than a year he has a fight set up. This time, Floyd is going to fight Oscar De La Hoya in a seemingly unnecessary rematch, set up for September. Hopefully Mayweather sticks around long enough to fight the winner of Bob Arum?s welterweight round robin that will go on this year. We will touch more on this subject in the mailbag. Now, onto the questions:
Three Great Fights
Hi Brian, I just like to agree that the three upcoming fights that you (as well as I) cannot wait will really continue the good line up of fights boxing has given fight fans last year. I’m sure that those three fights (Pavlik-Taylor, Vazquez-Marquez and Pacquiao-Marquez) will give the boxing fans all the DRAMA and EXCITEMENT that they could ask for.
Here are my predictions for those fights:
On Pavlik-Taylor rematch, I’ll go for Kelly Pavlik because I still feel that he has the key to beat Jermain Taylor any time with his pressuring offense. I think that Taylor will again be out hustled by Pavlik and knock him out in later rounds.
For the rubber match between Rafael Marquez and Israel Vazquez, this fight is close and unpredictable because of the great effort of both fighters. Their last two fights were (hands down) two of the most memorable fights in 2007. This fight will go down to the wire but I think Israel Vazquez will again prevail because I think he has the harder chin. Vazquez will put an end on the fight via TKO in the later rounds.
And lastly, on Marquez-Pacquiao rematch, this fight has all the characteristics of a Fight of the Year award. I think the two warriors have the same amount of pressure on their shoulders to win this fight. For both fighters, this would be the fight of their career because who wins this match will establish their names to be one of boxing’s best. I’ll go for Pacquiao because I think the age factor will affect this match. Marquez, though known for his counter punching style, was has slowed and is lacking those stinging punches he had years back that shows with his KO numbers. I think Pacman will still dominate this fight with overwhelming pressure and speed, because Marquez can’t catch all of those punches if thrown successively. But this fight could still go either way, I think the boxer who trains more and is more focused will win the fight.
That’s it, how about you Brian? What’s your latest predictions?
-Ren
Ren,
Jermain Taylor found success against big names (Hopkins, Wright, etc) by chasing them around and trying to make them stand and fight. He did that against Pavlik and Pavlik was more than happy to exchange missiles with Taylor. Taylor found that he was outgunned for the first time in his career. All Taylor knows how to do is go after his opponent and fight, but that is bad news because Pavlik wins a slugfest every day of the week.
I cannot give you my solid prediction on Vazquez vs. Marquez right now. You are correct in saying that Vazquez has the better chin. He has been able to stand up to the punches better in the first two fights. Marquez is more skilled of the two though. I am on the fence.
Pacquiao is a dynamic offensive fighter, but Marquez is just as dynamic of a counterpuncher. A good boxer usually beats a good puncher if they are on the same level. However age could very well play a factor in this fight as you suggest. If age catches up with Marquez my prediction of Marquez by decision would not come true. Juan Manuel cannot afford to lose any bit of speed or reflexes against Pacquiao.
Can?t Wait For Marquez/Vazquez III
Hey there Brian. I concur with the 3 fights you are anxiously anticipating, particularly Vazquez/Marquez III because I already got my tixs for that fight. The beauty of this fight to me, is I like both fighters. Both of whom represent my native country, so may the best man win.
-Jorge
Jorge,
Vazquez vs. Marquez 3 is a “can’t miss” fight. I am glad that you have your tickets because there is no better way to experience a fight that seeing it in person, especially if you know the action is going to be intense. You are sure to get your money’s worth when these two men step in the ring together. The only way I can possibly see this fight disappointing is if it ends prematurely by either a cut or a quick stoppage. You are in for a treat. Enjoy the fights my friend!
Abstaining Boxers
Hey Brian, I can say that I’m a boxing fan, but I only watch the lower divisions because I noticed that their fights are so action packed and exciting, unlike those in the heavyweights these days. I also noticed that there is so much preparation before the fights in lower divisions; like those divisions where Pacquiao, Floyd, Marquez, and David Diaz belong.
I read somewhere in the internet that trainings and preparations before fights in lower divisions are so strict and hard that some were not allowed to have sex before the fight. Is this true? Now if this is true, shouldn’t Manny Pacquiao be taking that into consideration since his wife is with him during these days of his preparations? I remember Pacquiao saying on TV once, that he sacrifices sex before he fights. I think it would be impossible for them not to have sex if they are together. Just wondering. I just hope I am not talking nonsense. I don’t know much about boxing. Sorry, just asking.
-Aliguyon
Aliguyon,
No need to be apologetic, I welcome your question with open arms a bottle of lube. Sorry, that last line was too gross; even for me. To answer you question, it is wise for any serious athlete to abstain from sex before a competition, especially boxers, so there is truth to what you have heard. The extra built-up testosterone comes in handy during a fight. So you are not talking nonsense. Freddie Roach probably does suggest that his fighters abstain while training although I do not have first hand knowledge of this. The trainers of former Heavyweight Champion Primo Carnera not only barred women from the training camp, supposedly they wrapped a rubberband around his penis to prevent nocturnal emissions. Now that is dedication!
Have Faith In Pacman
What Rodel mentioned last week about blisters and hand injury was also mentioned on another chat site. Manny always says things when the fights end, but they are true. For example, he was not wearing the punchers glove when he lost to Morales the first time. I believed him and look what happened to Morales in the 2nd and 3rd when he wore those Reyes Gloves? Get the picture? Now I have a faith in what he said after his classic fight with Marquez. Pacman never said those reasons for an excuse. When he said Marquez got lucky I believed him again, Marquez really got lucky.
But what I like about you is your honest opinion the only thing is you don’t have enough faith for the Pacman. Manny will not give him a chance to beat him, NEVER, unless he gets lucky. No freaking way Marquez will win. This will be a mismatch.
Thank you kindly for your time!
-Supermandie
Supermandie,
I admire the unconditional support you have for your guy, Manny Pacquiao. Perhaps my faith in Manny Pacquiao is lacking, but I think Manny beat Morales in the rematches because he had a great game plan and diversified his attack enough to the point that Morales could not fight the same way he did in the first fight.
Let us say that Pacquiao blows Marquez out of the water and Marquez vs. Pacquiao is a mismatch as you predict. My analysis of the fight will not be ?it looks like Pacquiao really did have blisters on his feet the first time.? If Manny wins it will be because he trained hard, was in peak shape, had a great game plan, and improved since the first fight.
I know that Manny is very confident in himself, saying that Marquez got lucky. But sometimes even the fighters can be wrong about themselves. In 1974, everyone thought that George Foreman was going to demolish Muhammad Ali, especially Foreman himself. Big George believed more than anyone else that Ali was going to get flattened. Yet he lost, despite his confidence and despite thinking that the only way Ali would win was to get lucky. I know this is a bit off topic, but it is something to think about. I hope you enjoy the fight.
Manny?s Conditioning
I see that you pick Marquez over Pacquiao in their rematch. Some other boxing writers also have the same feeling. Well, that’s not a bad prediction because, though I’m a die-hard Pacman fan, I’m aware that Marquez’s style will be very difficult for Manny to figure out. But I think Manny can overcome this style-barrier if he makes Marquez work every second of every round wearing the older man out.
Eventually (and hopefully!), Marquez will submit to Manny’s pressure. I don’t see Manny winning by counter-punching an expert counterpuncher. So conditioning is the key. Do you agree?
Though you favor Marquez over Pacquiao, am I right to assume that you still see this as a fight that can go either way? What do you think Manny should do to pull this off? And one more thing, talking about conditioning, do you think Justin Fortune became a significant loss in the Pacquiao camp? Thanks and more power.
PS. This mailbag is great. What day of the week does this mailbag come out? I think I need a dose of “not-too-biased” boxing opinions like this one has.
-Ronchimata
Ronchimata,
First off, thank you for your support of my mailbag. My mailbag comes out on Monday usually although sometimes on Sunday or Tuesday depending on what stories the editor has on deck.
I agree with you that conditioning is the key. Pacquiao needs to make Marquez work every minute of every round. If he attacks for twelve rounds, not recklessly but with precision and skill, he has a shot to outwork or overwhelm the defense of Marquez. Freddie Roach will have to come up with some feints or a strategy that Manny can use to surprise Marquez and land some power shots. Not only does Manny have to throw a volume of punches, he has to hurt Marquez as well if he wants to win. All of this is entirely possible even though I favor Marquez to win a decision.
And no, I don’t think that the loss of Justin Fortune will affect this fight at all. Roach called him a conditioning coach, but in reality he was another trainer under Freddie Roach who worked with Manny when Roach was busy. But Roach is the main trainer so as long as he is there, Pacquiao will be in good hands.
Upcoming Fight Predictions
Hey Brian, wassup? I?ve been checking your mailbag. Good call regarding Povetkin, everyone was really on to him being the next big thing. I really do think he will be great but as you said he might not be ready for Klitschko yet. I seriously think he needs to fight a big puncher in the division before taking on Klitschko, he is just too green in my opinion.
There are a lot of fighters out there I could recommend to his team. Golota, Tua, Rahman, Mesi, Briggs, Mccall, in fact I can see him losing against a guy like Valuev. What do you think?
We have the same pick in Marquez-Pacquiao (Marquez by decision). Pacquiao is doing his regular training for 8 weeks while Marquez started training last year and is so serious about this compared to Pacquiao.
Anyway who do you think would win in:
Cintron-Margarito II Marquez-Vasquez III Pretty Boy Floyd-Oscar De La Hoya II (w/FM sr. as trainer) Roy Jones against the winner of Hopkins-Calzaghe (although not yet confirmed a lot of people are saying that this is bound to happen) Katsidis-Casamayor
-Cian
Cian,
Good to hear from you again Cian. The list of heavyweight boxers that you listed would be perfect opponents for Povetkin to challenge at this point. I’m sure they could get Hasim Rahman into the ring. The Rock is never one to shy away from a challenge. Valuev vs. Povetkin would be interesting. As long as Povetkin’s chin held up (again I don’t know how Povetkin would handle a big puncher) I think he would outwork Valuev much like Chagaev did.
Here are my predictions on those fights:
Kermit Cintron vs. Antonio Margarito ? Cintron is a member of RSR and I enjoy reading his mailbag, but real talk, I have to be unbiased. You have to make Margarito the favorite here based on their first fight and the just okay showing that Kermit had against Jesse Feliciano.
Rafael Marquez vs. Israel Vazquez ? My prediction on this fight changes with the day. On one hand, Marquez is the better boxer, punches just as hard, and is more accurate with his punches. Because of that my original prediction for the first two fights was in favor of Marquez. But backers of Vazquez say that their man can absorb the punches better and has a sturdier chin. And they have a point. Marquez has been unsteady on his legs when a punch connects cleanly. All it takes is one slip up or one landed haymaker and the fight ends in favor of Vazquez. Someone is getting knocked out, that is all I will commit to right now.
Oscar De La Hoya vs. Floyd Mayweather ? Mayweather takes it again in the rematch, by decision of course. However, I predict that Floyd will try to mix it up more to please the fans. When he heard that criticism that his fights were boring to watch, it stung his pride. Standing and fighting will make the fight more exciting and more dangerous for Mayweather at the same time, but Mayweather is too skilled to lose to an old De La Hoya.
More Thoughts On The Welterweights
Brian I’ve been thinking about the April 12th card and how Bob Arum put them up together. The winner of Cotto-Gomez vs. the winner of Cintron-Margarito will fight each other, perhaps on Puerto Rican parade day. The overall winner has two belts and will have more attraction. I really think Bob Arum is looking at a scenario like this, if perhaps Cotto wins (which is very likely) and Cintron wins then it will be an all out Puerto Rican battle on Puerto Rican day in New York.
And do you think Mayweather would fight the overall winner? I think he’ll lose his belt, and its going to be a vacated soon enough.
-Cian
Cian,
That is an ideal situation for fans of boxing all over the world. Welterweight is the best and deepest division in boxing. The perfect scenario is if all of them fight each other to see who reigns supreme, and hopefully we get a couple classic wars along the way. Absolutely throw Floyd Mayweather in there, especially if Cotto wins that unofficial welterweight tournament. If Miguel comes out on top, he will have essentially cleaned out the division. Mayweather will have no choice but to fight Cotto when/if ?Money? Mayweather decides to continue fighting. Cotto vs. Mayweather is a superfight if there ever was one.
Cunningham, Hopkins, De La Hoya
Hi Brian, it has been a while since my last email. Just want to ask if you have any updates on when Steve ?USS? Cunningham will fight. I just watched his fight with Marco Huck, and knowing his odds and profile and everything, it was a dramatic win and performance for the IBF Cruiserweight Champ. And it?s so easy to like the guy, since he is a dedicated conditioned fighter. For the Hopkins-Calzaghe, I do agree with you that B-Hop will emerge victorious. But I have to admire Hopkin’s desire to still claim further his stake as one of boxing’s greatest, getting the fight with Calzaghe is an example. For DLH, I would say he has a better chance now in defeating PBF on the rematch, just as long as he doesn’t forget his jab.
Thanks and more power to you Brian.
-Richard Lopez-Pozas
Richard,
Good to hear from you again Richard. I have not heard anything about Cunningham’s next opponent. He does not have many options for the bigger names either. Cunningham has already fulfilled his mandatory requirement, Bell and Mormeck seem to be in semi-retirement, and Haye already has a fight lined up. It is a wait and see situation for USS, but I am eager to hear whom he is going to fight next because I enjoy watching him fight and think he is one of the best cruiserweights around, if not the best.
You must have misunderstood my prediction because I think that Calzaghe is going to handle Bernard Hopkins, pretty easily too. It will be interesting because Bernard is such a smart fighter that I am curious to see how he is going to fight. But Calzaghe just has too much output and energy for Hopkins to match at this stage and age of B-Hop’s career.
I am not really excited about Mayweather vs. DLH 2 because I see the rematch being very similar to the first fight. I enjoyed the first fight but the outcome of the fight did not warrant a rematch. Even if De La Hoya sticks with the jab, Mayweather will still find a way to win a decision because he is such an intelligent and gifted fighter. De La Hoya has a chance because he is an excellent fighter, but he has to be an underdog here.
Thanks for the question. Take care.
Suffering a Pac-Lash
Hi Brian, first I would like to apologize for the subject title. But after reading your last mailbag I had to respond to the Pacman comments (backlash – paclash, get it?). I have read several comments from Pac fans demanding you be a man and admit you were wrong when Manny does the inevitable and beats Marquez. But the hypocrisy of this really irritates me. Every time they mention a loss for Pacquiao it is always accompanied by the excuses. He had toncilitis, he hurt his hand, he didn?t have his favorite gloves. Give me a break, it?s not as if hurt hands is a new phenomenon. Has Calzaghe ever finished a fight without sore hands?
One mailer, Rodel, says there is no way that Marquez can out box Pacquiao! And then mentions the Morales trilogy but leaves out the first fight. I watched this fight and that is exactly what Morales did – he out boxed Pacquiao for the majority of this fight. Landing his punches and moving, staying away from the ever dangerous left hook of Pacman. Granted Pacquiao won a few late rounds but this is due almost solely to Morales? desire to entertain the fans. Morales always wanted to give a blood and guts performance, always enjoyed standing toe to toe. After doing enough to win the fight on points, you could see he wanted to prove a point to everyone that mentioned Manny?s fearsome punching. He stood in front of him and took his best shots. This macho streak was why I loved Morales and consider him the greatest Mexican fighter I have ever seen, and I also consider it a huge factor in his loss in the second fight. All we heard were excuses from Pacman?s camp about gloves. Morales decided to trade, which was the wrong decision as I believe with the longer reach he could have boxed his way to a decision.
But I do admire Pacman and think he is a great boxer, I just wish his fans had some more humility and a lot less arrogance. If Marquez wins I’ll be expecting a flood of mails from the Philippines praising Brian Wilbur for his oracle-like knowledge of all things boxing. I feel better now…
-Gerard McLaughlin
Gerard,
Good to hear that someone other than myself does not buy into the excuses that a fighter gives after a fight. So if Marquez wins I should expect a flood of emails praising me? That will be that day! I am sure that some respectful fans would, but more likely, if my prediction comes true and Juan Manuel Marquez finds a way to come out victorious, I will expect a flood of emails, but they will not be Pacquiao fans telling me that I am a prophet. Instead I suspect that they will have a new excuse of why Pacquiao lost and/or say that Marquez got lucky and Pacman would surely win by KO in the rematch. Being a Pacquiao fan first and a boxing fan generates biased perspectives. Not that there is anything wrong with that. I am in no way saying that one way to support boxing is better than the other. Even though I do take abuse from time to time from the Paclanders, I thoroughly enjoy and appreciate their emails. My mailbag would not be the same without their enthusiasm and undying passion for Manny.
Missing Ingredient at Featherweight
I have seen a couple of fights of the two current Featherweight Champions Chris John and Jorge Linares. I thought they were good but I feel there is not much excitement on this division now compared to the time of Barrera, Morales, Marquez and Pacquiao. I am just wondering what is missing in today?s featherweight division to make it more interesting and exciting as that of the today’s super featherweight and super bantamweight divisions.
-John
John,
You answered your own question. The reason why the featherweight division is not as exciting is because the superstars are no longer in that weight class. The only significant fight that can be made is Linares vs. John (which would be a great one) but the likelihood of that happening is very slim. Robert Guerrero is an up and coming force but he is not ready for the big time. The featherweight division needs more talent and better-marketed boxers. John and Linares are two of the best fighters in the world, but talent alone does not make a star. A boxer also needs charisma and exposure to become a real well known star. The world does not get excited about fights involving fighters in which they are not very familiar with.
That concludes my mailbag for this week. Send in your questions and I will feature them in next week?s edition of Brian?s Boxing Mailbag. Have a good one!
