Let?s not even try to count the times that a smug boxing intelligentsia played the role of human centipede, feeding on its own crap en route to a laughable miscalculation. Hardcore boxing fans and media pundits are (in)famous for feeding into their own talking points and winding up with egg on their faces as the ?impossible? proved to be quite possible.
Remember when people were legitimately concerned for the health and well-being of Bernard Hopkins before his bout with Kelly Pavlik? Remember when Oscar De La Hoya vs. Manny Pacquiao was going to be a cynically one-sided cash grab in Oscar?s favor? Those with good memories will also recall more than a smattering of ?Oh Jesus, he?s gonna get hurt? remarks before an aged Shane Mosley met fearsome Antonio Margarito.
These are just three examples in recent history of fans and ?experts? being so sure of something that they failed to notice some key elements pointing the other way.
That brings us to the March 16 bout between IBF welterweight champ Errol Spence and Mikey Garcia.
On the surface, this appears to be a mismatch. Spence is a big, powerful welter who could eventually find his way to middleweight and Garcia is a former featherweight, super featherweight, and lightweight champ who seemed to be stretching himself as far as he could go when capturing a junior welterweight title last year.
Media voices and armchair experts have written this fight off as a pointless endeavor and, to add injury to insult, as a cynical matchup put together so both can avoid the fights they really should be having.
And, yes, it?s going to be an uphill battle for Garcia to beat Spence. As a matter of fact, this writer talked about the uphill battle last year when giving an early preview of the bout:
?A smaller world class fighter beating a larger, stronger world class opponent is not all that unusual. Speed and precision trump brute force and a case could actually be made that in a battle of elites, a smaller, quicker fighter may actually have an edge over a bigger, but slower foe.
But this is not necessarily a case of the quicker, slicker small man versus the mighty, lumbering giant. Garcia may have the edge in hand speed over Spence, but he?s not the kind of moving stylist/speedster best suited to overcoming the disadvantages he?ll be facing March 16.
The four-division world champ typically fights tall and long, using his assets as a ?big? fighter (relative to his opposition) to his advantage. He works the long jab and works well off that jab, throwing an accurate right hand and turning over the left. The sharp jab allows for him to use distance well, creating space not only for issuing offense, but also for facilitating a solid defense based more on timing and space than speed and mobility.
Overall, Garcia is a tremendously well-schooled, efficient offensive fighter with patience and a level-headed calmness that allows for a high level of precision.
But nothing Garcia does well, nothing that has made him a special pound-for-pound fighter will be of much use to him against Spence, someone who is also an extremely efficient offensive boxer who uses his size and physical assets to his advantage.?
Garcia will have to make some fundamental changes?both in style and temperament?to come away with a victory. As I wrote, he?ll have to change just about everything.
But if there?s anyone capable of such a task, it?s Garcia, someone with a high ring IQ and an impeccable work ethic who has shown himself to be utterly unflappable in the face of adversity and supremely focused at all times.
Those dismissing Spence-Garcia as a mismatch are also overlooking the fact that Spence is mostly an untested entity. And on the one occasion when he faced someone in Kell Brook, who could box and think on his feet, he was held to a standstill right up until the very end of the bout.
Mikey Garcia may not need to be Pernell Whitaker to puzzle Spence and keep him one step behind the entire night. We won?t really know how much Garcia can change or how much Spence can adapt until we see both do some of these things they haven?t ever done before.
If you plug all the raw info from Spence vs. Garcia into some sort of boxing simulation program, Spence will come out as the guaranteed winner. But boxing is a thinking man?s sport and, as history has shown us time and time again, it?s always a mistake to rule out a thinking man?s chances of pulling off the supposedly impossible.
