Hey, what’s that giant sucking sound coming from Las Vegas?
Megamanny was an over Three Dollar favorite, meaning you had to put down $300 to win $100 and get back $400. But, slowly and steadily, that Pacman position has been eroded.
A check of the latest line has MP at minus $2.95 while Marco Antonio Barrera is at plus $2.35, meaning if you bet $100 on him and he wins you would get a return of $335.
Do the bookmakers know something we don?t? Is that why the price, meaning the odds on Manny Pacquaio, is dropping faster than Britney Spears in a Hollywood bar at closing time?
Not really because the reason the Pacman?s favorite price is being whittled is what happens whenever someone fights a popular Mexican boxer in Las Vegas. Mexican fans usually come into Vegas the day before or the day of a big fight and, when they do, many rush to the legal sports book betting counters to put some money on their man.
This same sort of phenomenon happened when consensus was that a young Oscar de la Hoya was going to batter the older Mexican legend of legends, Julio Cesar Chavez. Thousands of Mexicans flooded into Vegas late and acted as though it was their patriotic duty to make one more bet on JC Superstar. Of course, Chavez did get pounded by ODLH. So much for sentimental wagers.
I don’t want to say I made a haul on that one. Let’s just say I went into the Coney Island Sports Book with 10 shopping bags full of Dead Presidents and, after the fight, left the tiny casino with 20 bags full of greenbacks. I was sad Chavez lost, yes, but my sadness was eased by my bulging shopping bags.
It?s the same reason why you?ll see the price on prohibitive favorite Floyd Mayweather Jr. drop in the final days before his Dec. 8 Vegas blockbuster with Great Britain?s Ricky Hatton. Hatton?s merry band of followers, or ?punters? as they say across the pond, will lay some money on their lad.
Pacquaio is sure to go off at fight time as the betting favorite but all the bets by Barrera backers, even the small ones, cause the bookies to constantly adjust the betting line.
No need to panic, Pacmaniacs. The real smart guys aren?t betting on Pac or MAB in this one anyway. They are betting on whether the fight goes 10 full rounds or not. Some places have made this an over 10 1/2 rounds line meaning you don’t win on the over unless the fight goes to the halfway point or a minute and 30 seconds of round 11.
The Marleymeter says no, no, no. It says bet the under 10 full rounds if you can get it. That?s the way to invest. But always remember, bet with your head…not over it, lol.
Repeating the Michael Marley Boxingconfidential Pacquaio Puglistic Prognostication: Megamanny stops MAB in seven rounds!
