CHICAGO – If you have a spare car, precious jewelry in a safe box, or anything of value, sell it quick. And once you have the cash, fly to Las Vegas this Oct. 6 weekend and bet everything on Manny Pacquiao.
Your investment, however, won?t have a fair return. Because the odds on Pacquiao beating Marco Antonio Barrera is a very oppressive -350, which means for every $350 you risk, you collect only $100.
But if there ever was a sure bet, you?re staring at it right now. This fight is robbery with the use of boxing gloves. It?s as close as you?ll ever get to a winning lottery ticket.
This is why I have been relatively silent on the upcoming duel at the Mandalay Bay Events Center.
The outcome of Pacquiao-Barrera II is a foregone conclusion, no wonder the needle in my excitement meter isn?t moving the way it crazily did during the Pacman-Erik Morales trilogy.
While on a self-imposed column-writing hibernation, I?ve pondered often about Manny?s next fight. I examined all the angles, the possible strategies, the cruel twists of fate.
Many scenarios were conjured in my blotted, Rum ravaged mind, but never?not even fleetingly?did the thought of a Barrera upset ever occur.
The only way for Barrera to beat Pacquiao, I surmise, is to fight from a distance and box magnificently like he did last April 2001 against the mouthy Arab from England, Naseem Hamed.
But that 12-round masterpiece happened six years ago. Barrera, the Baby-Faced Assassin, is now ancient at 33, a little too spent after 69 pro fights. The magic has left, and those weary arms could no longer recreate the fistic spell cast on Hamed.
I thought about a lucky punch, too, like that liver stinger Gerry Pe?alosa delivered on Jhonny Gonzalez last Aug. 11 at the World Cup. But for that to happen, Barrera must be willing to engage Pacquiao.
And that wouldn?t be smart. That would only be disastrous.
Going toe-to-toe with Pacman is like standing naked in front of a blistering tornado. It will blow Barrera from Las Vegas to Guadalajara.
Which leaves us to a wiser, safer option?hit and run.
Sure, Barrera can backpedal and outfox Manny. Easily, he can also frustrate and anger Pacquiao, take the GenSan warrior out of his element.
But Barrera cannot do so successfully for 12 full rounds.
At age 28, in the zenith of his athleticism, Pacquiao is too fast, too quick, and too nimble for anyone in Barrera?s age bracket to elude unscathed for a dozen 3-minute rounds.
Having trained like an animal the past seven weeks, sparring furiously and climbing hills with maniacal zeal, Manny is cresting, eager to exhale. He can?t wait to inflict pain, administer punishment.
Barrera can run, but he can?t hide.
Inevitably, sooner or later inside that roped jungle, the Pacific Storm will unleash its wrath, and once it does, the once-mighty Mexican can?t do anything but fall like Iwo Jima.
Recah Trinidad of the Philippine Daily Inquirer, who is currently embedded with the Pacman in Los Angeles, shares the opinion that Barrera?s chances of triumph against Pacquiao are as slim as supermodel Giselle Bundchen.
Trinidad, a best-selling, award-winning novelist, told me over the phone from the Wild Card gym yesterday that Pacquiao will only lose if he gets injured, or if he cannot rectify his ?susceptibility? to short right hands..
But don?t fret. Manny?s defensive flaw was already detected by his trainer?s hyperactive radar. Nothing the great Freddie Roach can?t fix.
If Pacquiao throws his rights with more freedom and confidence, he should be fine, too, adds Trinidad.
Boxing scholar Hermie Rivera, a ringside witness to countless Pacquiao wars, also sees no light at the end of Barrera?s tunnel, saying ?I?ve never seen Manny so loose and carefree, a restive state which belies the rumored distractions around him.?
The Barrera camp, meanwhile, is very quiet. Dead as Good Friday.
Calm before the storm?
I don?t think so. The silence is more serene surender like preparing for the inevitable demise.
Pacquiao in 7 rounds. Or less.
