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Will Overconfidence Kill the Manny Pacquiao Comeback?

According to reports emanating directly from Manny Pacquiao?s training camp, the eight-division world champ is looking weak and tired in preparation for his November 5 bout with WBO welterweight titlist Jessie Vargas. Is age finally catching up with the 37-year-old Filipino icon or do Manny?s poor showings in camp have something to do with the fact that he is totally uninterested in the challenge of his upcoming opponent?

Pacquiao is heavily favored over the under-experienced, moderately skilled Vargas?and the widening odds are very justified. On paper, Vargas does not belong in the ring with a Pacquiao who has the edge in almost every single category, except age. The bout has been widely slammed by critics and fans and rejected for the airwaves by longtime broadcast partner HBO. Just skimming through social media, the overall consensus is that Pacquiao-Vargas is a farce of a mismatch, so much so that it?s not even worth watching.

So, one could hardly blame Pacquiao if he finds it hard to get motivated for the upcoming bout. Manny, a man who has fought the very best and has gone to war countless times over twenty years of career, has very little to motivate him when it comes to a bout with Jessie Vargas.

Overconfidence could easily set in as Manny faces someone who, in the opinion of many analysts, would barely be good enough to be a top sparring partner. And this IS boxing. For all the talk of a mismatch, any professional fighter can beat any other professional on any given night. One punch or one thirty-minute stretch of inspired excellence is all it takes for the biggest underdog to become a one-time hero. Vargas is not without ability and grit, so it wouldn?t be that much of a stretch to see him score an upset on his best day against a Pacquiao having his worst day.

Pacquiao has said that his plan is to have two more high profile bouts in 2017 and rematches with Juan Manuel Marquez and Floyd Mayweather loom large as possible options for a huge coming year. With Marquez and Mayweather on his mind, it?s going to be even harder to give Vargas? challenge full attention.

If Manny comes in to the ring November 5 overconfident and looking towards 2017, he could be leaving himself wide open for an upset. If that happens, there?s no Marquez, no Mayweather, and, for that matter, no more career.

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