The Cruelest Sport staff and a few special guest panelists offer their thoughts and picks on the Miguel Cotto-Saul Alvarez fight.
Joel Calahan, The Cruelest Sport
Cotto versus Canelo promises for once to make good on boxing?s old canard of competitive quality in the ritual event of torch passing from one generation to the one nipping at its heels. Neither fighter holds purchase on the fight?s outcome. Alvarez is Cotto?s pupil in body and counter punching; Cotto concedes physical advantages to the Cinnamon Kid as well as strategic patience and discipline. Cotto is neither grizzled enough to warrant our pity, nor so young that he would worry Alvarez?s grooms and handlers. This is a problem for Alvarez, ultimately. Canelo?s youthful dash may indeed inspire more confidence than the empty dazzle of Cotto?s recent fights against cherry-picked opponents. But Cotto will reveal the younger fighter?s restraint to be hesitation, as Mayweather did before him. Creativity and better movement will give Cotto the angles to land his patented lefts and eke out a narrow points win. Cotto UD12
Andrew Harrison, Boxing Monthly and The Queensberry Rules
Alvarez holds advantages in youth, strength, natural size and maybe power; Cotto is the more intelligent, more experienced and better-rounded of the two. Neither truly belongs at 155 lbs. ? Cotto arrived in his fourth ?weight class? after being ousted from his previous two, while without day before weigh-ins, Alvarez would surely be fighting at super middleweight ? which makes picking a winner in contests with so many unfathomable variables as difficult as counting freckles. Conventional wisdom suggests a fighter boiling down in weight (as ?Canelo? tends to) will prove menacing in the early running before waning down the stretch. If Cotto can ride out the bout?s opening third while chipping away at Alvarez?s body ? he could be in business after half-way. Most picking Alvarez believe he?ll prove too big and too powerful and that youth will be served here ? yet a fighter?s age can virtually be discounted when deliberating over a boxing match nowadays, in an era when the dominant heavyweight champion of the world is 39 and still appears physically superior to any other boxer currently plying their trade. Maybe I?ve missed something with Alvarez but I don?t see him doing anything well enough in one particular area to override Cotto?s more structured all-round game. I?ll take the Puerto Rican to punch out a solid points victory over Canelo in a victory of substance over style. Cotto W12
Michael Nelson, The Cruelest Sport
While Cotto?s last two performances have been impressive, ?Canelo? is probably the better fighter at this point, especially against opponents he doesn?t have to chase. I suspect he?ll eventually have to chase Cotto, but that will be an indication that the fight?s well in hand. Cotto has had the tendency in the past to get on his bike against the sturdy and willing. Is new-found confidence and Freddy Roach enough to suppress that tendency? I?m skeptical. His best shot would be to hold his ground and remain dedicated to his body attack ? one that remains among the most damaging in boxing. While Canelo?s durability has been tested and verified since Cotto?s younger brother had him doe-legged in 2010, he hasn?t faced the KO threat he?ll face Saturday night. That will make the first several rounds tense and intriguing, but I think class will show over time. Alvarez TKO10 Cotto
Joel Stern, The Sweet Science and Head Coach of the UC Davis Boxing Team
In Miguel Cotto versus Saul ?Canelo? Alvarez, the powers that be, at the behest of these better men, have bestowed upon boxing fans a rare blessing?a competitive fight between larger-than-life fighters with a passionate fan bases. Alvarez has proven himself an action-film worthy zombie-slayer who has looked less than heroic against more pure boxers. ?Canelo? will provide the test to see if Miguel Cotto?s resurgence under Freddie Roach is more truth or illusion. If Miguel Cotto can fight the perfect fight, box some, strike quick and move out and maybe find the dead spots where ?Canelo? is unable to move both his hands and feet, he can win a decision, maybe one going away. But I see ?Canelo? gradually wearing Cotto down, and at some point hitting Cotto on a chin that may already be cracked. How long Cotto lasts after that will depend on Cotto?s willingness to absorb punishment and Roach?s capacity to witness it. Alvarez TKO 11.
Sean Nam, The Cruelest Sport
Around the time when the blood was still fresh on Miguel Cotto?s face from his duel with Manny Pacuquiao, Cotto?s brother, Jose, got into the ring with a nineteen-year-old baby-faced prospect Saul ?Canelo? Alvarez as part of the Shane Mosley-Floyd Mayweather, Jr. undercard. It was the Mexican?s first fight on U.S. soil, a celebratory moment for Golden Boy Promotions, which Jose almost spoiled midway through the first round when he landed a left hook that landed flush on Alvarez?s chin, sending the youngster hammock-deep into the ropes. Many a blue-chipper, given the force of the punch and the glitzy platform, would have probably wilted under such pressure. Fourteen fights later, Alvarez is one of the sport?s biggest stars. One reckons that Saturday night may play out in similar fashion. Expect Miguel Cotto to befuddle Alvarez early with his deft movement and control of the ring. The gods, however, have always bestowed their greatest gifts on the young. Eventually, Alvarez?s unfailing composure, natural size, and crisp counter punches will leave the referee with few alternatives but to save the aging Puerto Rican fighter from his own drive. Alvarez TKO10
Andrew Fruman, The Cruelest Sport
I?m surprised at just how many people think Cotto has a chance. Not to mention, that most of those picking him to win, are suggesting Cotto is going to outbox Canelo. Against sturdy, skilled opponents, Cotto has always struggled to get in and out without taking punishment in return. Plus, he?s proven less than durable against smaller men than Canelo. I think Cotto?s going to come out looking to cause damage, get hurt early, and struggle the rest of the way. I?ll take Alvarez by mid-to-late round stoppage.
Michael Baca, Undisputed Champion Network
A Binary Star takes shape Saturday night at the Mandalay Bay. It?s a force so strong in the boxing universe, not even the cluster-fuck of the sport?s measurement of accomplishments, and the inconsistencies that come with them, can take away from the magnitude of Miguel Cotto vs. Saul Alvarez. No, it won?t reach the pre-fight climax of the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight earlier this year, but Saturday?s match is just as important to true boxing fans and is left without the over-saturated coverage of the mainstream media. Contrary to this past May?s ?Fight of the Century,? Cotto-Canelo will actually deliver a fight. After Cotto refused to pay the WBC sanctioning fee for this fight, which led him to being stripped of the middleweight title, Miguel revealed the truth of his current state in boxing. The 35-year old doesn?t need the hardware, but had he been ten years younger, Cotto would be flipping the greedy bill. Canelo, 25, is a huge star for boxing?s standards, but still needs to prove himself and an impressive, longstanding title reign is still missing on the Mexican?s resume. While Cotto?s savvy business decisions may show his true motive, the Puerto Rican has looked rejuvenated in the twilight of his career. With that being said, Cotto?s will has been broken before, and if Canelo can force him into dire straits, will Miguel?s reaction be that of a businessman thinking long term or a fighter seeking glory? Prediction: Canelo struggles early, but eventually finds his range. Canelo TKO11 Cotto
Jimmy Tobin, The Cruelest Sport
Miguel Cotto is a better fighter than Saul Alvarez, which is say there is more to learn from Cotto, more a student would want to replicate, a coach impart. But fights are not settled by a contrapuntal arrangement of gifs, and technical prowess does not equate to victory. In Alvarez, Cotto is facing a fighter with poorer footwork, less wrinkles. Youth, size, power, however, are all advantages Alvarez possesses, and in evenly matched contests?which Saturday is not, if the odds-makers are correct in clearly favoring Alvarez?such advantages have managed to trump craft with daunting regularity. Cotto, who has had his share of long nights, has looked refurbished under Freddie Roach, but how much of that is matchmaking is not clear. It should become so Saturday night. Expect Cotto to start well before wilting over the second half as Alvarez, through bodywork and combinations, wrests control of the fight. And expect scores to reflect Alvarez gaining that control in half the time. Alvarez by UD.
Bart Barry, 15Rounds and Ring Magazine
Neither the Mexican nor the Puerto Rican is particularly clever, and this will not be either. Since, we?re told over and over and over, this rivalry, Mexico versus Puerto Rico, is bigger than either participant, there?s no need to name the participants. The Puerto Rican feels strong and has championship experience. The Mexican feels strong and has championship experience. The Mexican is 10 years younger than the Puerto Rican. As I can?t find a way to make it more complicated than that, I?ll take the Mexican, TKO-10.
****
Oliver Goldstein, HBO and Boxing Monthly
Man of the shabbiest renaissance in boxing?s deep history of shabby renaissances, Miguel Cotto, returns on Saturday night in the shabby fight his run at something sort of resembling middleweight has been leading toward. Neither Cotto nor ?Canelo? Alvarez, his Mexican opponent, is really a 160-pound fighter, indeed Cotto is barely a junior middleweight, and this meeting doubtless carries a somewhat tawdry feel no matter its supposed significance. Nonetheless the Mandalay Bay should be something close to packed, and the PPV numbers will be good, and Canelo can be christened (again) as something like a superstar when he gets through an old Cotto here set up to lose. A shot Delvin Rodriguez, a double-shot Sergio Martinez, and a triple-drained Daniel Geale could do nothing with Cotto, but it was likely not the Puerto Rican most important in affecting those outcomes: against any half-stable fighter, all would have lost. Canelo?s significance should be determined in future years, but watch on Saturday night him be hailed as a hero. Picking the bones off an old and bloated Cotto, the Mexican should land what in boxing might now be the most meaningless bauble of all. Canelo TKO-10
