In the classic NES game Zelda II: The Adventure of Link, an NPC famously gave the advice ?If all else fails, use fire.?
All else has failed in the boxing pay-per-view universe this year. Mayweather-Pacquiao was a classic example of the sport cashing out rather than growing. Golovkin-Lemieux was a dud. So HBO, running out of options, trots out Miguel Cotto (40-4, 33 KOs) and Saul ?Canelo? Alvarez (45-1-1, 32 KOs), headlining what is, frankly, a serious dog of an undercard, and promising fans a good old-fashioned Puerto Rico-Mexico rivalry fight with a shot at being the Fight of the Year.
The televised undercard features a title fight (Takashi Miura and Francisco Vargas) at junior lightweight, a potential snoozer involving Guillermo Rigondeaux and Drian Francisco at feather, and Jayson Velez getting a crack at Ronny Rios (bout list provided via HBO.com.)
Let’s take these one at a time, working our way to the main event:
Jayson Velez (23-0-1, 16 KOs) vs. Ronny Rios (24-1, 10 KOs)
Velez is a guy on the rise. He fought for a world title against Evgeny Gradovich and gave the champ all he wanted on his way to a draw. His power followed him up off the hobo circuit; in his last five fights, he has scored five knockdowns en route to a 4-0-1 record with 2 KOs. He pretty much put a stop to any talk that Salvador Sanchez Jr. was in any way whatsoever the equal of his father. He effectively ended Miguel Soto’s career (Soto, in four fights since Velez knocked him out, hasn’t been past the fourth round, losing every time.)
Meanwhile, Ronny Rios just lost by knockout two fights ago to a guy who was 19-10 (Robinson Castellanos), and it’s not as though Castellanos is Conan the Barbarian out there; his next fight was against a completely shot to hell Rocky Juarez, a Juarez who has been down three times in his career, and Castellanos couldn’t put Rocky on the floor. He’s supposed to beat a guy who came within a drawn card of winning a world championship?
This has all the makings of a showcase fight for Velez despite the records. Velez has picked better fighters than Rios out of his teeth; the same should be on display here.
Guillermo Rigondeaux (15-0, 10 KOs) vs. Drian Francisco (28-3-1, 22 KOs)
So what’s the angle here? Rigo appears to be headed up to featherweight after spending the past five years as a champion in some form or fashion at 122 pounds. This is his dip-the-toe fight, an audition tape for a possible fight with someone like Vasyl Lomachenko. He couldn’t ask for a better opponent.
Rigondeaux suffers from a bit of Mayweather’s Disease; he’s a guy who’s so fundamentally sound as a boxer and a counter puncher that people think he’s boring. His fight with Rico Ramos was a stinker; his schooling of Nonito Donaire was brutal television even as it was great boxing. Wheedling his way onto this card may just be his last chance to establish himself as a television draw, since boxing is an entertainment business and Rigo just plain isn’t entertaining.
Drian Francisco, on the other hand, is the perfect patsy. He got pasted in one round by Jason Canoy two fights ago. He’s lost badly every time he’s fought someone with a pulse. Yet he thinks he’s a knockout artist because of the beatdowns he’s been able to give Philippine club fighters.
You see where this is going. Rigondeaux’s promotional team want desperately to make their guy look like Golovkin so they can sell him down the road as a draw and get more money for him. To do this, they have to convince the public that Rigo can put on an entertaining fight. So why not throw him in against a guy he can walk into a counter and lay flat with a YouTube highlight?
Enjoy the con, but don’t read too much into it. This is a set-up.
Takashi Miura (29-2-2, 22 KOs) vs. Francisco Vargas (22-0-1, 16 KOs)
Miura has held the WBC junior lightweight championship belt since 2013; this is his fifth defense of that title. Vargas is an up-and-coming prospect masquerading as a major league contender whose lone signature win was over a badly faded Juan Manuel Lopez in July last year; he has never once fought anyone who gave him the kind of test that Miura will give him. His last opponent, ?Wild Will? Tomlinson was a game but severely overmatched Aussie club fighter whom Vargas stopped in eight.
Vargas has never been scheduled for 12 rounds, and he’s only been past the fourth round five times?an eighth-round TKO, an eight-round decision, and three ten-round decisions. Miura can drag him into deep water and finish him late. Miura could outclass him and knock him out early?Miura knocked out Billy Dib in three in his last fight, and Dib’s fought a lot better than Vargas ever fought.
Either Vargas is a special talent who will fight out of his mind and shock the world, or he’s just not ready yet and Miura will cash him out for an easy defense of his title. Smart money ain’t on Vargas.
Miguel Cotto (40-4, 33 KOs) vs. Saul Alvarez (45-1-1, 32 KOs)
Forget all the jibber-jabber about Cotto getting stripped of his WBC middleweight title?the WBC wants to hold the seat open to elevate Golovkin to full rather than interim champ, it was just a question of what excuse they were going to use. Forget the 155-pound catchweight; this should surprise nobody since Cotto was never a natural middleweight and Alvarez has shown no inclination toward moving beyond 154.
This is about an old, clever Puerto Rican dog in the ring against a still-young Mexican legend-in-the-making setting himself up for a bright and lucrative future.
It’s also a terrible style matchup for Cotto. Miguel struggled against Floyd Mayweather. He couldn’t solve Austin Trout. When a guy can out-box him, Cotto doesn’t quite know what to do with himself. When he gets into a slugfest, he’s not that much better off (ask Manny Pacquiao, who knocked Cotto out in 2009.)
Canelo put Trout on the floor en route to a wide unanimous decision. He solved Shane Mosley. He wrecked James Kirkland and Alfredo Angulo. Any fighter who’s remotely going to remind you of Miguel Cotto, Canelo’s already beaten and usually stopped.
Styles make fights, and this is a dangerous fight for Cotto, who is going to have to play the role of boxer-puncher, fight out of his mind, fight flawlessly, and even that may not be enough. For Cotto, “if all else fails, use fire”?he’s going to need to catch Canelo clean and capitalize on the moment.
Some guys are just built in a way that says ?this guy’s gonna have the other guy’s number?, and that’s why Alvarez should outlast Cotto en route to a late stoppage or unanimous decision.
The Cotto-Canelo PPV airs at 9 PM Eastern/6 PM Pacific; contact your cable or satellite provider for ordering and pricing information.
