To win on May 2nd, Manny Pacquiao (57-5-2) will need to impose his will on Floyd Mayweather, Jr (47-0) and not let the undefeated boxer disrupt his attack and rhythm. As mentioned in our prediction article, Floyd will use his quick legs to run away from Pacquiao–to pot shot the Pinoy idol and score easy points from a safe distance.
In short, Mayweather will try to bag a few rounds by taking the fight and initiative away from Pacman and try to make the superfight a dull chess match–similar to what Sugar Ray Leonard did to Marvin Hagler in 1987.
Who controls the tempo and pace will win on the scorecards. One could argue that this is less of a fight, and more of a contest of footwork, timing, and evasive maneuvers.
Here are Pacquiao’s three keys to victory: 1Shorten the distance so Mayweather can always be within punching range. Floyd will constantly run. Therefore, Manny must continually be faster and cut off the ring so he can unload his famous punch combinations. 2Before Pacquiao can unload his five- and six-punch combinations, Mayweather will try to score a head blow in the first one or two punches, so Manny can’t finish his combination. If Floyd can reduce Manny’s volume, he can win easily. Thus, this is the critical pattern for most of the 12 rounds: Can Floyd stop Manny in his tracks by constantly interrupting Pacquiao’s punch volume with accurate counters? (Similar to what Erik Morales did back in 2005.) If Manny can’t finish executing his six-punch combinations, Floyd may likely cruise to an easy decision win. In military terms, Floyd needs to be an accurate sniper, and Manny needs to avoid getting peppered by that distant sniper. Mayweather needs space, Pacquiao needs to rumble up close. 3Manny needs to dig deep and find ways to unnerve and unsettle the calm and calculating Mayweather. Throw the holy bible out. Pacquiao needs a dirty streetfight near the ropes and corner to instigate a flurry of exchanges. Fireworks need to occur or Floyd will be content to collect his Olympic-style points.
Without blood and/or injury between these two gladiators, Pacquiao will lose. Manny may be a man of God, but on May 2nd he’ll need to be a ruthless warrior and bring out his inner Tazmanian Devil.
Blood. Tears. Broken Bones. That’s what propelled the Pacman to the zenith of the “hurt business.” That’s what he needs now: to be the Typhoon from the Pacific.
Our prediction remains the same. Mayweather wins by a controversial 12 round decision. Emotion doesn’t win battles.
