The Cruelest Sport staff and a few special guest panelists offer their thoughts and picks on the Floyd Mayweather, Jr.-Manny Pacquiao blockbuster.
****
John Scully, Trainer And ESPN Classic
Although I think Floyd could run into some real trouble early on with the speed and unorthodox punching angles of Manny, I think he will gradually figure things out and come away with the decision. I will assume that Floyd will have to work harder than he?s had to in any of his most recent fights, but I?m sure he knows that this is going to be in store for him. Mayweather W12
Springs Toledo, The Sweet Science
Manny Pacquiao?s style is the foil for Floyd Mayweather Jr?s style. In fact, the ?A-Side?s? ambivalence about this fight over the past several years strongly suggests that he himself knows this. This isn?t to say Mayweather is afraid of Pacquiao or doesn?t believe he can beat him; it is to say Pacquiao represents a serious X-factor for the risk-averse Mayweather.
In order for Mayweather to win, he is going to have to fight unlike Mayweather. He must either hurt Pacquiao early and often or he will have to quickly adapt to a style that is very unlike what he has seen. Mayweather is an evaluator; he tests, probes, and gauges his opponents to find patterns and weaknesses to exploit. The problem with Pacquiao is that he doesn?t fight like Maidana or Canelo or Guerrero. Their styles are comparatively simplistic. Pacquiao?s is a high-energy, dynamic style that is as whimsical as the man himself. At his best, Pacquiao fights like Matrix. Those strafing attacks at angles, the ability to simultaneously evade and counter, as well as the varying speed, number, placement, and direction of his punches may force Mayweather into a defensive mode for too long to win. Pacquiao, in other words, may short-circuit Mayweather?s computer. All those drills with Uncle Roger may have actually hurt Mayweather?s chances in this fight.
Look for Mayweather to come out strong with his legs spread, shooting right hands to chin-check the Filipino. He?ll try to bait the southpaw into a right hand or a left hook going away, but I think he?ll find that Pacquiao won?t do what is expected?he is something else altogether; something new. And Pacquiao is inspired-not in a dark way like Duran was in the first Ray Leonard fight, but in a way that makes him just as difficult to deal with. If Pacquiao doesn?t knock Mayweather out in 7, he?ll take a split decision that should be a unanimous decision.
Clifford Rold, Boxing Scene
My anticipation is growing and I can see ways Pacquiao can win. I just think Floyd WILL win. Both men have slowed down from their peaks and that favors the more technically sound Mayweather. This could be a lot of fun in spots but Mayweather has had the better chin; a knockout for Pacquiao isn?t a safe bet. In order to pick Pacquiao, it has to be assumed he can win enough rounds to score a decision. It?s not farfetched, but I?m going with the most likely scenario. Mayweather W12
Steve Kim, Undisputed Champion Network and Boxing Scene
Admittedly, I am picking with my heart( hey, Im allowed), I?m tabbing Manny Pacquiao?s activity, angles and foot-speed to upset Floyd Mayweather over 12 tense, sometimes action-packed, rounds. Pacquiao W12
Sean Nam, The Cruelest Sport
What this fight loses in entertainment value when it couldn?t be made five years ago, it makes back twofold in narrative significance, which is to say: there?s more money stirring in the pot now and Saturday night may be a total bore. When Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao meet in the ring tomorrow night, it?ll be something like a final waltz (if only they were fighting outside under the moon) straight out of a Disney flick between two late styles, one based on timing and precision, the other, on activity and pressure. Though Pacquiao has shown that he can still dart successfully around the ring, his punches have lost most of their pop. This won?t bode well for the Filipino against the bigger man in Mayweather, who?ll most likely evade his opponent?s approaches for six rounds and eventually look to place his hard counters. Old habits die hard. But make no mistake, called out for his matchmaking woes, Mayweather finally faces an opponent he has not been able to hand-pick. And that should give this potential downer of a match,enough sliver of intrigue to excite ? at least for a round or two ? even our most cynical of observers. Mayweather UD12
Bart Barry, 15Rounds and Ring Magazine
Anyone else notice every press-release photo of Mayweather and Pacquiao facing-off is shot from roughly a toddler?s angle? It almost feels like there?s a significant size disparity the event?s promoters have invested in hiding. It says here Mayweather, come Saturday night, will appear two or three weight classes bigger. That will be the difference. Pacquiao will hit Mayweather plenty, but much like Juan Manuel Marquez before him, Pacquiao will dent Mayweather almost not at all. I?ll take Mayweather, UD-12.
Kim Francesca Martinez, Undisputed Champion Network
If history is inclined to repeat itself, then surely ring intelligence, agility, and uncanny defensive instincts will culminate in Mayweather?s arm being raised a 48th time come Saturday. However, it would be reckless to count out one Congressman Pacquiao, who, even at the ripe old age of 36, still sits atop the welterweights owing to an indefatigable offensive arsenal whose punches defy the laws of physics. Manny has more than just a puncher?s chance, but he?s gotta bring the heat and engage his opponent?preferably, in the opening stanzas before Floyd solves his riddle.
Ultimately, I think this dance will come to a decision, the X-factor being Manny?s killer instinct (on extended vacation, says everybody). Unless Manny finds a way to shellac Floyd, the latter will box and elude and frustrate his way to another W. And for the record (though it?s been said ad nauseum as of late): ?My head is with Mayweather; my heart, Manny.? Mayweather W12
Joel Stern, The Sweet Science and Assistant Coach of the UC Davis Boxing Team
Floyd Mayweather will dominate this fight from the beginning to the end. Superior in every way, Floyd will gradually beat up Manny to the point where Manny?s most ardent supporters will just want the fight to end. Floyd and Manny may both leave the ring ridiculously rich and with hearts full of God?s love, but fans will feel the emptiness of the mark who placed all his hopes in the hands of a con. And thus will end this era of boxing. Mayweather wide UD or late stoppage.
Andrew Harrison, The Queensberry Rules and Boxing Monthly
One fight that hasn?t been touched upon much in the buildup is Pacquiao?s second fight with Marco Antonio Barrera. Old hand Barrera?outgunned at this late stage?managed to contain Pacquiao through the bout?s opening plays behind an educated left hand backed up with the threat of his patented short hooks and uppercuts. It?s fairly easy to envisage the Filipino becoming lost again when faced with an even cannier left jab?especially if Alex Ariza has managed to add oomph to Floyd?s right hand. Evenly matched summit meetings that have gone the full 12-round route over recent years have tended to go to the aggressor: Felix Trinidad over Oscar De la Hoya, Joe Calzaghe over Bernard Hopkins and Pacquiao over Juan Manuel Marquez (in fights II and III); even Evander Holyfield and Julio Cesar Chavez managed implausible stalemates against Lennox Lewis and Pernell Whitaker respectively. Maybe this was all a reaction to Ray Leonard?s David Copperfield routine against Marvin Hagler in 1987? Who can tell? I fancy that the popular underdog in Pacquiao is awarded the benefit of the doubt based on his more spirited intent in a bout where, ironically, both men struggle to separate themselves. Pacquiao SD 12
Joel Calahan, The Cruelest Sport
Only in America, as Don King might say, could we reach the spectacle of Saturday night: crowds of regular working folks around the country shattering their piggy banks and counting out one hundred stacks of one hundred pennies for the privilege of watching two multi-millionaires punch each other in the face for thirty-six minutes. The irony of the gladiatorial theatrics would be too much even for Commodus. However, the main pleasure of watching Floyd Mayweather, Jr. and Manny Pacquiao fight will be seeing each of these greats required to do more than he ever has before. Mayweather, the man with more to lose, may unveil a new weapon at the opening bell: he may search to refute his reputation as a defender alone by going on the offensive early to keep Pacquiao reacting rather than initiating. His accurate darts will land here and there all night. Pacquiao will smooth over any new wrinkles of Mayweather?s by throwing restrained combinations with the sneak right hooks that solved Timothy Bradley. There won?t be sustained action, as Mayweather spoils with strategic holds. Mayweather is used to discouraging his foes, but Pacquiao won?t get discouraged. Debatable rounds will keep it close. Mayweather will deserve a close decision but Pacquiao will get the judges? nod. Pacquiao by controversial SD.
Andrew Fruman, The Cruelest Sport
He?s 38 and looked less than spectacular in his previous two outings against Marcos Maidana, but I think the style match-up favors Mayweather here. Pacquiao should be able to land the occasional straight left, but will likely struggle to find a comfortable rhythm against Mayweather?s movement and clever counters. I hope I?m wrong and we see some fireworks, but I think the fight is going to be a bit of a snoozer, with Mayweather taking few chances and pecking his way to 117-111 type scores. Mayweather W12
Oliver Goldstein, Boxing Monthly and Inside HBO Boxing
More than any other fighter, Floyd Mayweather seems to have fans tearing up the form book when it comes to predictions and pronouncements. So: despite the absence of genuine challenges on his record, Mayweather is, to more than a few, the ?TBE?; likewise, despite increasingly obvious signs of physical decline, he is also the surefire winner for Saturday night. But the form book might be a worthwhile record to consider before discounting Manny Pacquiao?s chances of victory. Indeed, in the real world, the ?TBE? has in fact not looked himself in some time; in the real world, he took 24 rounds to dispatch bloated and gauche Marcos Maidana; and in the real world, his legs seem considerably slowed. Mayweather?s best outing in years, against Canelo Alvarez, came unsurprisingly on a night when Alvarez seemed to mistake the fight for a who-can-stand-stillest competition, and allowed ?Money? to slide in and out of mid-range with brief, subtle changes of angle and position. Pacquiao is likewise a depleted force, but then his style was always predicated on depletion, such was its reliance on extraordinary outbursts of energy leading to cumulative, or sudden, stoppages.
Ultimately, both have deteriorated notably in recent years, but after a dreary few years for boxing, what with a hypothetical ? will Mayweather fight Pacquiao? ? dwarfing the actual in mainstream attention, the reality of this fight will surely provide succor for even the most inscrutable campaigners. As it is, I?m going to take a punt, and have Pacquiao prove busy enough to take a disputed decision over a too-stationary Mayweather. Then let the next hypothetical ? what would have happened if they?d met in 2009? ? begin. Pacquiao MD-12
Michael Nelson, The Cruelest Sport
Pacquiao is unorthodox enough to tag Mayweather more than many think. Mayweather?s a brilliant defender, but Pacquiao?s equally brilliant at putting together ineludible combinations. He?s the most talented offensive fighter Mayweather has ever been in the ring with.
Mayweather?s reach is an issue, though, and I think will be the decided advantage in a close fight. He?s an expert at keeping smaller men at bay with an active, well-timed jab, and unlike Timothy Bradley, he has the arm length to reach Pacquiao with it without much trouble. In between explosive moments where it would appear Pacquiao?s turning the tide, I expect stretches reminiscent of Erik Morales? work in his first bout with Pacquiao: entire rounds dominated by a constant jab in the mouth, steadying the ship. Nevertheless, recent history won?t lie. Neither man will seriously hurt the other. Mayweather SD12
Jimmy Tobin, The Cruelest Sport
Floyd Mayweather, Jr., has held a conjectural victory over Manny Pacquiao ever since Juan Manuel Marquez nailed Pacquiao to the canvas in December of 2012. The rationale being that Mayweather beat Marquez (at a catchweight only Marquez adhered to), and that if Pacquiao could be knocked cold by Marquez, surely Mayweather (who fights little like Marquez, and has never stared down his own destruction like Marquez did in lining up that legendary killshot) would have his way with the Filipino dynamo as well. This is troubled logic. Marquez showed that Pacquiao could be stopped with the type of punch that arrests the sporting world for weeks. But which prizefighter is immune to such a fate?
?Money? Mayweather, stupid! Never beaten, or even knocked down (sorry Zab Judah), he has adjusted to age and opposition with equal success. Mayweather hasn?t been really imperiled since he reached the tax bracket befitting his self-styling, nor has he faced anyone like Pacquiao. With the fight only days away, it might be wise to revisit the reasons for Mayweather?s safety, for his avoidance of Pacquiao to this point, and to consider the relationship between these reasons (which you may have already done since you are reading this). Given Mayweather?s home canvas advantage?Las Vegas delayed his jail sentence long enough to profit from his fight with Miguel Cotto?it might be naive to reduce Saturday?s outcome to what either man can impose on the other. But the thinking here is that Mayweather loses the early rounds measuring his opponent only to find himself in the unhealthy position of having to bring the fight to Pacquiao to win. And while Mayweather will have some success in that regard, Pacquiao accomplishes enough to overcome any groupthink from the judges and secures both a victory over Mayweather and a chance at another one. Pacquiao W12.
