Though the build-up for Mayweather-Pacquiao owes itself largely to sports fan awaiting the match-up of arguably the best two boxers in recent time to finally fight some five years in the making, and though this bout will set several boxing-related financial records, boxing itself will never return to former glory for a variety of reasons (e.g. credibility issues, structure of the sport, concussion concerns, too many alternative entertainment options, the growth of mixed martial arts, lack of likable stars, impact of media?s proliferation to the decline of sports like boxing and horse racing).
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It?s particularly fitting the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight is taking place this Saturday just hours after the completion of the Kentucky Derby because of the parallels between both events and their respective sports.
They each represent the shining event for their respective sports in the 2015 calendar year, and yet, each sport respectively has seen its national popularity drop precipitously over the last 3 decades?with no rebound forthcoming.
No one is questioning either the money-making or hype-generating ability of the two camps involved with the Floyd Mayweather versus Manny Pacquiao fight in Las Vegas on Saturday, May 2nd. From a financial perspective, numerous records are likely to be set:
– Estimated total revenue from the fight between $420-440 million;
– Estimated record-breaking $300 million in pay-per-view revenue from a forecast of 100 PPV purchases at $100 per buy;
– Record sponsorship revenue for a single fight exceeding $13 million, with Tecate over $5.6 million;
– Estimated record-breaking $75 million in gate receipts from the sale of 18,000 seats at the MGM Grand (record for ticket sales for a fight at MGM);
– The average secondary ticket price on StubHub as of Tuesday evening was approximately $6800, with the cheapest available at $3,500 and the most expensive listing for over $350,000.
All that said?
You can huff, and you can puff (both camps have for years), but there is absolutely ZERO percentage chance the aftershocks of this fight will somehow revive the significance of the sport in the public?s eye.
There is ZERO percentage chance this fight will spark a national flood of young men and women to boxing rings all over the country to become the next star of the sport.
There is ZERO percentage chance the sport will see massive increases in national television rights deals.
Bob Baffert?s horse, American Pharoah, is currently the favorite at Saturday?s Derby in Louisville, KY. If American Pharoah wins the Triple Crown (a feat which hasn?t been accomplished in 37 years since Affirmed in 1978), the industry will get a small shot in the arm?and it?s a great year for them. But it?s not going to somehow revive national interest in the sport.
Suppose Manny and Floyd fight a spectacularly entertaining and close fight, and a rematch is set for 2016. Will this boost interest among the American sports consumer to buy PPVs of other matches involving guys not named Manny or Floyd? Absolutely not. ZERO percentage chance.
Boxing and horse racing were more popular in American society when those sports received romanticized attention through radio broadcasts. If you go through this list of heavyweight champions and specifically WHEN they reigned, what else did people have to listen to or watch?
Over a 20-year span from the mid-1930s through the mid-1950s, Joe Louis and Rocky Marciano dominated the heavyweight class and became household names. We didn?t have ESPN, CNN, or the Internet. Of the 4 major sports leagues in America today, only baseball was prominently available via radio. Boxing matches and horse races were perfect for radio entertainment, the dominant form of mass media at the time.
And though television and professional sports rapidly grew during the 1960s, it only helped boxing as Muhammad Ali?s charisma and social/cultural significance was made for prime time. He, along with his rivals (most notably Joe Frazier) helped carry the sport through the 1970s.
And though boxing stayed relevant in the 2 decades after Ali (e.g. Sugar Ray Leonard, George Foreman, Mike Tyson, Oscar De La Hoya), slowly but surely the popularity waned.
Why?
– Credibility of the sport
Are the athletes clean? Is there match fixing? For a sport so often associated with the gaming industry, it?s likely hard for some to honestly believe they are consistently getting the real deal.
– Confusing organizational structure of the sport
Here is the link for information about the World Boxing Association. And though it?s the oldest of the four major organizations recognized by the International Boxing Hall of Fame which sanction world championship bouts, the fact there are FOUR such organizations is confusing.
Furthermore, there are 17 different weight classes. That?s a lot of champions to keep up with.
– Greater media options present greater access to more sports entertainment
Too many other options for sports entertainment, both from a cable viewing perspective and simply having more events one could attend and/or participate in. We?re not wed to our radios as our grandparents were. We have options.
– Concussion concerns
It doesn?t take a Nate Silver to know that getting punched in the skull repetitively for years isn?t good for one?s long-term cognitive functionality. But the media attention on the medical research in this field (including scares associated with CTE which have been widely chronicled in the NFL and NHL) have likely further reduced the number of people wanting to get into the sport.
– Mixed Martial Arts and Ultimate Fighting
Those who do like pugilistic endeavors from the younger generations of sports consumers seemingly prefer the more varied fight forms offered vis-a-vis mixed martial arts. Boxing is limiting in this sense. You can only strike your opponent with your fist. MMA, conversely, is part boxing, part wrestling, part karate.
– Lack of likable stars
In my late teens when Mike Tyson ascended to the heavyweight thrown at roughly the same age, in some way I was watching a peer.
And then Mike happened. Abusing women and drugs, going to jail, and being mentally unstable in public settings.
Fast forward to the present day, and the highest-earning athlete in all of sports – Money Mayweather ? has a long history of domestic violence which has sent him to jail and forever made him a cancer as either a role model or corporate endorser.
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Saturday night at the MGM Grand in Vegas will be a money making proposition for both boxers, their respective promotional teams, and others involved with the event.
But boxing, like horse racing, will never be what it once was.
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Dr. Rishe is the Founder and President of Sportsimpacts, and has been an Economics Professor at Webster University since 1999. Starting in June 2015, he becomes the Director of the Sports Business Program within the Olin School of Business at Washington University in St Louis.
