There are some things I know and some things I don’t about this week’s top sports events.
I don’t know who the Eagles are going to draft in Thursday’s first round. And by the way, neither does anyone else.
I don’t know which horse is going to cross the finish line first in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.
I know who is going to win Saturday’s Floyd Mayweather Jr.-Manny Pacquiao megafight.
Mayweather.
Not only will he beat Pacquiao, he might even knock him out.
No disrespect to Pacquiao (57-5-2, 38 KOs), who is one of the top five pound-for-pound fighters in boxing and has been for years. He’s a marvelous mix of power and speed. But the 36-year-old lost two of his last five fights and the startling image of him laying unconscious on the canvas after getting hit by Juan Manuel Marquez two and a half years ago remains vivid.
Mayweather (47-0, 26 KOs) is two years older, but has far less tread on his tires. He’s never been beaten, and he’s rarely been tested. There is no better defensive fighter in the sport, and his hand speed is unmatched. Pacquiao will surely challenge him, but it won’t be enough.
Take off their gloves and it’s a mismatch in the other direction, though the disparity is not as large as some people believe. Up until three years ago, when he turned his life around with the help and support of his wife, Jinkee, Pacquiao was a drinker, gambler and philanderer.
Mayweather has yet to change.
He’s still cocky, crass, classless and has a disturbing history of abusing women. He has already served time in jail, and no one will be surprised if he winds up back behind bars.
But once the bell rings at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas on Saturday night, their personalities and their behavior out of the ring won’t matter.
The first rule when it comes to predicting fights, is that you can’t let your heart overrule your head.
I made that mistake once before and paid for it.
Almost exactly 10 years ago, on June 25, 2005, Mayweather came to Boardwalk Hall to challenge WBC super-lightweight champion Arturo Gatti.
In the weeks leading up to the fight, Mayweather taunted, teased and insulted Gatti, labeling him nothing more than a glorified club fighter who didn’t belong in the same ring with him.
After covering many of Gatti’s thrilling fights and spending some time at his training camp in Florida, I secretly hoped Gatti would shut him up and boldly predicted Gatti would stop Mayweather in 11 rounds.
I couldn’t have been more wrong.
Mayweather delivered as promised, battering and punishing Gatti, who died in 2009, at will until Gatti’s trainer, Buddy McGirt, mercifully stopped it after six rounds. Mayweather landed 168 punches to Gatti’s 41 while a sellout crowd of more than 12,000 – 11,999 of whom were rooting for Gatti – groaned.
I’m sure the majority of fans lucky and/or rich enough to land a ticket will be pulling for Pacquiao on Saturday, even though Mayweather lives in Las Vegas and has fought his last 10 bouts at the MGM Grand.
That also figures to be the case in other venues. (Speaking of which, if you don’t want to shell out the $100 to buy the fight at home, you can join me at Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa for $30, or watch it at Golden Nugget casino hotel for $30 or Tropicana Casino Resort for $35).
It doesn’t matter. Mayweather is the favorite with Las Vegas oddsmakers for a reason.
He may be a despicable person, but he’s still the best fighter in the world.
Mayweather will win.
I know it.
