They are as different as winter and spring seasons. Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images
May weather is renowned for clear winds of coming perfection. Pack east now, you’ll encounter the remnants of furious flurries designed to cast doubt with skies of grey. On the rare occasions when seasons do collide, they do so in a way that divides our thoughts and how we might dress for the occasion.
I don’t know what Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao will wear to the ring on the historic night of May 2, 2015; but under lights that will feel like an August sun only to produce an electrifying autumn storm– only one of them will bask in an eternal spring, while the other will be confined to an abyss of winter.
And so it is, the mystery begins between angels and demons – or the respective camps of Pacquiao and Mayweather – with implications that almost feel as if it will transform the Vatican itself. Such is the pursuit of “The MayVinci Code”, and the race to kill its pursuant(s). But instead of Tom Hanks and Audrey Tautou; Manny Pacquiao and Freddie Roach will seek to prove that boxing’s “Holy Grail” is a lie, and leave him shattered all over an MGM Grand canvas in Las Vegas.
To do this, they will have to win a few key psychological battles in advance of the war, and all signs indicate that they are doing just that.
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REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY
“When a fighter loses once, he never forgets that. If he loses 2 or 3 times, that’s something that stays in the back of his mind. I have the advantage of knowing that Pacquiao has losses.”
Floyd Mayweather
Leonard Ellerbe, Floyd’s longtime manager and confidant, has a master’s degree in Psychology that has served Floyd well. He has played a key role in Floyd’s ability to manipulate opponents by offering subtle forms of doubt. But its not working this time, and the drug testing fiasco has either blown up in their faces or resulted in courtroom losses.
Yesterday, as reported by ESPN and Dan Rafael in this report, Pacquiao advisor Micheal Koncz decided to deliberately needle Floyd about making good a 5 million dollar penalty for a failed drug test by either fighter. Ellerbe completely fell apart about it, and makes himself look like the “idiot” and “moron” he referred to Koncz as.
But which one is it Ellerbe? To Koncz’s point, it was Floyd who wanted to (eh-mm..) “clean up the sport”. It was nothing more than tactical warfare aimed at pulling on the “TBE” cape.
These are games that Floyd has always played and won. He’ll make uncomfortable demands, use innuendo, mention opponents losses as either a detriment or a reason why they aren’t qualified to face him.
Consider an odd example of when none of this was the case: his 2006 face-off with Zab Judah.
Judah was just coming off a loss to Carlos Baldomir and had a devastating loss to Kostya Tsyzu years prior. In Floyd’s mind, this was a much safer fight with a fast southpaw who’d recently loss and was known for stamina issues. In his statement above, he wants you to believe he’s referring to Pacquiao- but he wasn’t.
He was referring to himself and the bronze medal he had to settle for at the 1996 Olympic Games, and any other losses prior to that. By constantly mentioning Pacquiao’s losses, he initially tried to use that as a reason Pacquiao was not qualified to face him. But by that logic, Oscar De La Hoya would’ve never been qualified to face him.
Floyd basically understands Roach now has a much better fighter stylistically, in terms of hand and foot speed from a southpaw stance, to deal with him- and he doesn’t like it.
EXPOSING HIS INFERIORITY COMPLEX
Mayweather simply needs to know he has clear advantages (in his mind) while knowing he’s planted seeds of doubt in his an opponent. For the first time ever, that situation is reversed.
For example, prior to facing Juan Manuel Marquez, Victor Ortiz, and Ricky Hatton; he was sure to study and analyze them in different ways to conclude he’d win. With Ortiz, he watched a fighter flawed enough against a very flawed Andre Berto, to decide he’d qualify. Ortiz displayed porous defense and a will almost as weak as his chin. Still, Ortiz had moments in what looked like a fixed fight.
Marquez was famously brought up to welterweight from lightweight and subsequently cheated by Mayweather on the scales (Floyd weighed in at 146 from the 144lb agreement). He gladly paid Marquez 600K for this, and it paid huge dividends for him in that fight. As for Hatton, he watched Hatton, who was unbeaten at super lightweight, struggle badly with Luis Collazo in a gift decision win. Floyd could see that Hatton’s speed or power wasn’t the same at 147, and thus agreed to a fight.
Part of solving “The MayVinci Code”, is understanding his take on “divide and conquer” in this manner, for it is the apex principle in his art of war with Pacquiao that has failed. When the two parted ways last week one thing was abundantly clear to me – Floyd is intimidated, because he has understood for some time now that he cannot intimidate this man.
THE PRODIGAL SON
“I got my reasons why I do not want my son to face that little man.”
Floyd Mayweather Sr.
Floyd Sr. may say now how easily he thinks Floyd will win this fight, but its hard to believe that he believes that, and Freddie Roach certainly doesn’t believe he’s changed his mind. Floyd Sr. was silent at the press conference and did not sit next to his son for the biggest fight of his life. Any prosecutor would use what he said in an audio tape, where he clearly states he fears for his son’s life against Pacquiao, as proof that he doesn’t believe his son cannot beat him.
Mayweather himself revealed his own candid reservations in this famous video. That thought process, if you adhere to Mayweather’s logic with respect to losses, is a thought process that doesn’t just go away and “stays in the back of his mind”. Semantics and hyperbole aside, what Pacquiao does have is an unusual skeletal density. A heavyweight usually has 8 inch wrists- Pacquiao’s are 8 1/2 inches.
That type of bone density translates to a thicker skull, cavity and overall frame. It has nothing to do with PED’s. Physiologically, he is not only designed to take heavy punches, but he’s built to deliver unusually heavier punches as well with great speed and volume.
This bothers Mayweather greatly.
Scoop Malinowski, owner of ringobserver.com, produced a revealing interview with Chicago native and former lightweight champion David Diaz, who lost his belt to Pacquiao in a memorable 2008 action fight.
“I think his ability to move, his speed. And his awkwardness is also a talent. That in itself is a talent,” said Diaz regarding what makes Pacquiao unique. When asked whether he thinks Pacquiao can beat Mayweather, Diaz was unequivocal in his belief that Pacquiao will defeat Mayweather.
“Yes. Yes, I think he does. I think he can fight Floyd’s style better than Floyd can fight against his style. Floyd’s fought Judah, Mosley, Hatton, Oscar. Manny’s also fought the bigger, tougher guys,” Diaz observed. “I think it will be harder for Mayweather to adapt to Manny’s style. I honestly feel he has the ability to fight and to beat Floyd. I’m going with Pac Man. I think he has the extra speed to beat Floyd.”
Beyond the fact that Floyd has had a recently strained relationship with Ellerbe, his father’s overt objection to former Pacquiao strength coach Alex Ariza is a very clear sign of vulnerability and desperation.
Chopping wood and getting stretched by a guy who was (according to Floyd’s terminology) a “leftover” from Pacquiao, denotes a lack of confidence from Mayweather. Consider this video made by Floyd Sr. when Alex Ariza was brought in. There’s no way those kind of feelings have gone away and hasn’t created divide.
Paying $1000 a-plate for pancakes and a sausage fest while playing up the “Money” moniker, is an attempt at diversion to project himself as a King.
From a psychological standpoint, it tells Manny Pacquiao and Freddie Roach that they can be bold in the face of Mayweather, which would explain Pacquiao’s aggressive posture around Floyd. It also explains why Freddie told the world at the press event to Floyd’s face that “we’re gonna kick your ass”.
I see this as a fight between an angry, southpaw version of Aaron Pryor with a vendetta trained by Eddie Futch, against a new age Wilfred Benitez with a disgruntled George Benton in his corner while distracted by Panama Lewis.
I think I’ve found the Holy Grail.
