Having split their two prior bouts as junior welterweights, Brandon Rios (32-2-1, 23 knockouts) and Mike Alvarado (34-3, 23 KOs) will meet for the third time as welterweights on Saturday at the 1stBank Center in Broomfield, Colorado, in a bout that is being televised on HBO.
Alvarado has stated that he will be out for ?redemption,? while Rios has said that he is just going to ?fight until somebody gets hurt? during the rubbermatch, but the winner may come down to which of the two has the most left.
A former lightweight titleholder, Rios is 2-2 in his past four fights. The 28-year-old slugger is coming off a ninth-round disqualification victory over Diego Chaves in August to bounce back from a unanimous-decision loss to Manny Pacquiao in his welterweight debut in November 2013.
The 34-year-old Alvarado is 3-3 in his past six fights, starting with a bloody 10th-round knockout of Breidis Prescott in November 2011 that was followed by a unanimous decision over Mauricio Herrera in April 2012.
After his second fight with Rios, Alvarado was dropped twice in the eighth of a 10th-round stoppage loss to Ruslan Provodnikov in October 2013 before swapping knockdowns with Juan Manuel Marquez en route to a unanimous-decision loss in his last fight in May.
There are many who are also awaiting what effect, if any, Alvarado?s recent weapons charge will have on the fighter.
RingTV.com sought the opinions of 25 boxing insiders as to what will transpire in Rios-Alvarado III [Fight-pick records are for 2015 only]:
Brian Campbell, ESPN.com
Brandon Rios TKO 9 Mike Alvarado: Both fighters will be extra motivated for the third installment of this all-action trilogy based upon how damaging a loss would be at this point to their respective futures.
But Brandon Rios is simply the younger and fresher fighter. At 34, Mike Alvarado has not only lost three of his last four, but he has endured the toll of having been in six consecutive Fight of The Year candidates. Alvarado has also faced distractions with the law in the lead-up to the fight. Give me Rios by stoppage.
Record: 0-1 [Last pick: Bermane Stiverne KO 4 Deontay Wilder]
Stephen Donatelli, guest/fan, Pittsburgh
Brandon Rios KO 10 Mike Alvarado: If this fight goes to the judges, Mike Alvarado has an advantage in boxing, Brandon Rios in power. They?ve proven capable of hurting one another and able to throw punches in bunches. But did Manny Pacquiao take more out of Rios or Juan Manual Marquez more out of Alvarado?
Each is in need of a win to remain relevant. My gut tells me that Alvarado will not be able to resist slugging to prove a point, as he did in the first bout. That bodes well for ?Bam Bam,? who I believe wins another action-packed fight by 10th-round stoppage.
Record: 1-0 [Last pick: Wilder KO 8 Stiverne]
Jake Donovan, BoxingScene.com
Mike Alvarado W 12 Brandon Rios: I no longer know what to think of this fight, so I?ll just stick with my gut instinct on this one. Both are worse for the wear these days. Ironically, Mike Alvarado enters into a career-bailout fight having been bailed out of jail in order to keep the fight alive.
It?s perhaps a big IF in stating that Alvarado should once again prevail if he can properly put the distractions aside for 12 rounds or less on fight night, given his run-in with the law, getting caught up in fighting close to home, etc.
But I really don?t like what I see in the welterweight version of Brandon Rios. Look for Alvarado to brawl enough to keep Rios honest, but box enough to win comfortably on the scorecards.
Record: 1-0 [Last pick: Wilder KO 4 Stiverne]
Norm Frauenheim, THE RING magazine, www.15rounds.com
Brandon Rios TKO 9 Mike Alvarado: Drama sells a trilogy. Attrition defines it. The second element favors Rios. There?s wear and tear on both Rios and Mike Alvarado. They specialize in scars. But Rios has the advantage of time.
At 28, Rios is about six years younger than his business partner, whose string of recent brawls took a toll. Add legal problems, and Alvarado faces a combo ? age and distractions ? that will be his undoing against a single-minded Rios in a desperate third fight at a career crossroads for both.
Record: 1-0 [Last pick: Wilder KO 4 Stiverne]
Jeffrey Freeman, www.KODigest.TV
Brandon Rios UD 12 Mike Alvarado: If six consecutive wars in the ring don?t finally catch up to Mike Alvarado against Brandon Rios in this, their third fight, then Alvarado?s hard-living outside of it surely will.
When I think about ?Mile High? Mike, I am unfortunately reminded of another talented but troubled welterweight, the one-time ?Pride of Lowell? Dicky Eklund. The label ?wasted talent? was the one that fit Eklund best, and it would appear Alvarado is going down the same road with similar results.
Professionally speaking, Rios understands his back is against the wall and that he must win this rubber match to stay Top Rank relevant. Rock-em-sock-em robots with full guns-a-blazing is what we?ll see, as always, with these two.
I think Rios shows up in better physical and mental condition than Alvarado and doesn?t allow himself to get outboxed this time. A close unanimous decision for ?Bam Bam? is the pick.
Record: 0-1 [Last pick: Stiverne KO 2 Wilder]
Tom Gray, RingTV.com
Brandon Rios TKO 8 Mike Alvarado: I would normally have picked Mike Alvarado, but the distractions ? and that?s putting it mildly ? he has encountered during the buildup should give Brandon Rios a serious edge.
I expect Alvarado to get off to a good start, as he is superior technically. But it?s doubtful that he can maintain the attack. Rios, as he has done so many times, will begin grounding his opponent down after four or five rounds and punch the fight out of him by the eighth. I?m just hoping for the rubbermatch lives up to expectations.
Record: 0-1 [Last pick: Stiverne TKO 9 Wilder]
