“You have your moments. Not many of them, but you do have them.”
Princess Leia, to Hans Solo after doing what he knew wasn’t the impossible
You know, its funny reflecting on that remark from Leia. In a moment of some sort of deja-vu, my Princess, Racheal Blaze, actually said that to me not long ago after my work in the kitchen. I laughed, recalling where the line came from and the personality it was directed at.
It was Han who also said: “Never tell me the odds”.
I knew the odds concerning what Miguel Cotto wasn’t supposed to do against Sergio Martinez, who he proceeded to beat the hell out of in his historic middleweight championship win. I knew he would do it, and was one of the few writers who cover the sport to proclaim this publicly for months.
I found myself really proud of him.
[re: see my prediction piece on this fight right before it took place here.]
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs. Miguel Cotto was a fight I’d actually thought about after Cotto beat Delvin Rodriguez in October 2013, and it is a mega-fight in May 2015. While “GGG” would be an attractive option for Cotto, a fight with Alvarez would would actually be the most viable for him – and a safer one competitively (he cannot beat Golovkin).
Alvarez, who outlasted track star Erislandy Lara, has returned to HBO and is embroiled in rather intense negotiations with Cotto to make the fight happen. There’s the venue, weight (155lb catchweight), and what’s at stake to be considered (Cotto’s WBC middleweight title), but none more important than the date itself. What happens over the next few weeks are important for the 2015 landscape of boxing, because these negotiations can actually impact the fight the world wants to see:
Manny Pacquiao vs. Floyd Mayweather
“I… AM MEXICAN MOTHERF***ER!”
As I write this, at nearly 11AM on this chilly December 4th day in Chicago, Alvarez (who actually said the above privately and has an intense hatred of Mayweather) remains firm in his desire to stage a huge fight with Cotto on Cinco de Mayo, a date Mayweather has turned into his own Superbowl of sorts.
The only way Floyd can trump the negotiations and preserve this date, would be by getting a deal to face Cotto in a rematch, or by finally coming to terms with Manny Pacquiao. There’s no way around it.
But whenever this fight – Canelo vs. Cotto – takes place, I’m fairly sure of what would happen. Considering Cotto’s renaissance under Roach and what I think I’ll see from Alvarez, what I predicted last fall in what you’re about to read I’m still sure of.
For now 😉
T@z
***** ***** ***** *****
I admire the spider.
He carefully cultivates and spins a network of silky thread with a devastatingly delectable design of precision. It?s produced to catch small prey, but it all too often ensnares much bigger prey.
Us.
Often times, this will annoy and make one rather uncomfortable for awhile, and we?ll try to avoid walking into this ?trap? if we can see it. And if you can do both- you might stop and stare. For not only did you not ?see him do it?, but you may pause to wonder how he even created something so dangerously beautiful, while focusing on what he?s captured and about to kill.
Alcatraz was once home to the most notorious killers in the nation. Located off the coast of San Francisco and now a world renowned tourist attraction, it was known more for being on an island no one could escape. Much like the aforementioned spider – once entangled in its web ? you were doomed.
When Saul Canelo Alvarez faced Floyd Mayweather last year, he tried to out-spider the spider. The problem for him is he could not design a web faster or better than Floyd, and wound up being out-styled and trapped in one of his own. When Miguel Cotto challenged Floyd in May 2012, he did so as a creature who tried to prevent him from being able to design anything, until he got ?stupid? (as Team Alvarez famously stated in an episode from Showtime?s ?All Access?).
Interestingly enough, who looks smarter than Miguel Cotto now?
He brought in Freddie Roach, much to the chagrin of many (including myself), and the two proceeded to make a smashing debut out of Delvin Rodriguez. Depending on who you ask (don?t ask Brandon Rios or Robert Garcia- who said Delvin ?fought like a little bitch!?), this fight didn’t really prove much, and didn’t offer definitive proof as to whether or not Cotto isn’t reaaaaally shot.
I don?t agree with that.
Just using the eye test, the Miguel Cotto I saw in October 2013 and then the one I saw with Martinez in June 2014, would’ve beaten virtually anyone at 154lbs. He has morphed into a bigger version of what he was at a dominant 140 with Roach. Freddie has now proven beyond any doubt that he’s not only a bona-fide great trainer, but he’s one of the best of all-time.
So how does this translate to beating Canelo Alvarez? Could he employ the same strategy he unveiled against Rodriguez and Martinez to escape the island that is Alvarez?
Here’s what I think..
SAUL CANELO ALVAREZ VS. MIGUEL COTTO
I always marvel at how one fight can so change the perception of a fighter, both in ways good and bad. Many times these perceptions are false, and I staked my entire reputation on the line by telling you that so many would be wrong about the negative perceptions surrounding Manny Pacquiao.
I thought he would pound Brandon Rios and re-ignite talks of a superfight with Floyd Mayweather in the process.
He did.
I thought he would comprehensively beat Bradley to reclaim the title and shutout a delusional Chris Algieri.
He did.
He’s simply too great of a fighter to not reassert himself and I hope May 2015 gives us the fight with Floyd to really show just how great of a fighter he is. He would destroy Mayweather.
Miguel Cotto is about to go into the 3rd fight of his renaissance, and like Pacquiao, he’s silenced a lot of doubters. In the process, he has seemed to be a devil of a different kind following his possession of Rodriguez and annihilation of Sergio Martinez, but I believe that?s misleading.
Freddie Roach is very good at determining the psychological make-up of a fighter and what may leave him undone, and he inculcated this into the mind of Cotto. He never relented or waited on Rodriguez or Martinez, and correctly advanced them in ways that called their stylistic bluff.
Let him try that with Alvarez.
Many misinterpreted Canelo?s performance against Mayweather to be some sort of indication that he’s ?overrated?. This isn’t fair to him- or to Mayweather, because Floyd understood who he was and executed after staunch preparation. Canelo is a ?trapper? and a counter-puncher by nature. He wants to lure you into exchanges and in his range, so as to engage you with sneaky power shots and damaging inside combinations.
In a sign of greatness, he showed the type of forward aggression against Alfredo Angulo that would serve him well against Cotto, and he did not allow Lara to box effectively while running. Miguel Cotto does not possess Floyd?s escapability, defensive prowess, movement or overall boxing ability.
No one does.
He would ultimately realize his punches would not have nearly the same impact on Alvarez as they did on the very frightened Rodriguez, or the technically deficient Martinez; while immediately understanding that Canelo can hurt him badly. The fight would be a scintillating one, featuring fierce exchanges and heavy action. I believe the tense nature of it would be similar to Miguel’s 2007 duel with Shane Mosley.
For awhile.
Then Canelo would start to break Miguel down, change his features and get him into retreat. And once Miguel starts backing up- the fight is OVER.
Alvarez is just the kind of fighter to remind us all of what happens to Cotto when he’s in with another fighter that matches his skill set, speed, and has greater will than he does. This is who he would face in Alvarez, who also has a better chin. Saul Canelo Alvarez would patiently and methodically overwhelm Miguel Cotto with a faster and more overall lethal attack, subduing the game Puerto Rican great in the 10th round of a terrific action fight.
