CHICAGO – In their infinite wisdom, here’s how Las Vegas oddsmakers have pegged Randy Suico’s chances of winning the WBA lightweight title from Juan Diaz tomorrow at the MGM Grand Garden Arena – slim to none.
Diaz, the 22-year-old champ from Houston, has been installed as a ridiculously prohibitive minus-800 favorite, which means that an $800 bet for Diaz only yields a $100 return.
Meanwhile, the 26-year-old challenger from Mandaue City was relegated to a seemingly hopeless plus-500 underdog, which means that a $100 dollar bet for Suico will net a handsome $500 harvest.
At its surface, the line seems disrespectful, if not totally dismissive, towards Suico. But it really isn’t. The oddsmakers just don’t know enough about Randy to give him a fat chance against the unbeaten Diaz (29-0, 14 KOs).
You see, Suico has fought only twice here in the US – a fourth-round TKO win over Juan Carlos Garcia on Sept. 13, 2002 in Las Vegas, and a 10-round split decision loss to Javier Jauregui last Sept. 23.
When Suico fought Jauregui at the USC Lyons Center in Los Angeles, he only had five days to recover from a long flight and was obviously groggy from jet lag. That explained why Randy was slow as Sunday morning that Saturday night. His blows lacked the oomph that they are notorious for, and he quickly tired.
In the eyes of the oddsmakers, therefore, Randy Suico is a lost and easily-worn challenger, who will need a map to find Diaz inside the ropes tomorrow night.
I have no qualms about Randy being such a low underdog. Odds are not perfectly reliable anyway, and that’s precisely why it’s called a gambling bet. But I don’t agree that Randy’s chances of beating Diaz are as narrow as an 8-1 line. Having said that, if there’s one golden underdog bet to seize, this would be it.
“Randy is the underdog because of his two losses, while Diaz is unbeaten. But the long odds don’t bother us one bit,” Juanito Ablaca, Suico’s trainer told me last night from their MGM hotel room.
Meanwhile, Ablaca wasn’t particularly pleased by the calls made by some quarters lobbying for Team Suico to hire the services of Freddie Roach for the championship tiff.
“I have utmost respect for Roach. He is my idol. But having him in Suico’s corner after just 10 days’ notice isn’t the smartest idea. Besides, Randy’s inability to grasp the English language will provide a communication gap that might prove fatal to Randy’s title hopes,” explained Ablaca, who has trained Suico for the past seven years.
JAMPACKED. After a quick phone call to the MGM Grand box office, I discovered that only 1,600 tickets are left for tomorrow’s card, which is headlined by the Shane Mosley-Fernando Vargas rematch.
Ticket prices range from $100 to $800 and organizers expect that when the arena doors open on fight night, all 14,500 tickets will be sold. If the card sells out, Randy said it will be the largest crowd he will perform in front of.
“Nerbiyos ko gamay, pero ana man jud na. Wala sab ko manumbaling nga biya kaayo ko sa pustada (The expected large crowd makes me a little nervous, but that’s normal. And I’m not worried about the odds),” Randy told me last night.
Needless to say, the long odds notwithstanding, Randy Suico is ready to throw his hands of stone.
