It’s Monday. Welcome back for another edition of Observe and Fight, The Boxing Observer’s compilation of observations and random thoughts from the week that was in boxing. Get caught up on some of the most recent events you may have missed out on, including the numbers beginning to roll in from the Mayweather vs. Canelo pay-per-view, judge C.J. Ross taking a break from boxing, another David Haye postponement, a preview of this weekend’s tremendous action along with next weekend’s fights as well, and much more. Without further ado, check out the latest observations from the Boxing Observer, David Kassel.
Mayweather vs. Canelo continues to break records. The latest projections from “The One” have approximately 2.2 million Americans buying the pay-per-view at a $65 or $75 clip (depending on HD). On top of the over $20 million in ticket sales and another $2.6 million in closed circuit showings, this proves that boxing is still king of the combat sports. I’m not knocking MMA, but how many fans shelled out their hard-earned dollars to watch UFC 165: Jones vs. Gustaffson? Part of what makes Dana White a genius is he has a stranglehold on the MMA market and all of his fighters are under contract. He doesn’t have to hand out multi-million dollar paydays to his fighters. He puts on a pay-per-view seemingly once a month so he is raking in the dough. Good for him. He found his niche. However, boxing only puts on about 4-5 major pay-per-views each year. Routinely, these fight cards still produce over 300,000 buys, and in some cases they produce well over 1 million buys (when Mayweather fights and when Pacquiao was the 2nd biggest draw). The Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Timothy Bradley pay-per-view on October 12th will not come close to 1 million buys, but I’m willing to bet it does over 500,000 buys (which is more than Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. vs. Sergio Martinez did). Quite simply, fans still love boxing and they know quality when they see it. Marquez vs. Bradley is a quality main event, as is Manny Pacquiao vs. Brandon Rios in November (whether it’s in China or not). No matter how corrupt boxing may be, it will always have a place in fans’ hearts and it’s not going anywhere, even after Floyd Mayweather calls it a career.
Can we please stop with this Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao talk? First of all, anyone who still believes Pacquiao would beat Mayweather is a moron. Secondly, those people saying the fight will happen in 2014 are completely idiotic and don’t understand the fight game. Manny Pacquiao is currently signed with Top Rank Promotions through the end of 2014. In case you have been living under a rock, Floyd Mayweather despises Top Rank chairman Bob Arum from their time working together before Mayweather ventured out on his own, much like Oscar de La Hoya did (who ironically also left Top Rank). Top Rank and Golden Boy Promotions/Al Haymon are not currently doing business with one another to the point that Top Rank only fights on HBO and Golden Boy only fights on Showtime. The ONLY way that fight will take place is if in the year 2015, Manny Pacquiao does not re-sign with Top Rank Promotions. At that time, Mayweather will be in the final year of his contract, Pacquiao may have already retired to focus 100% of his efforts on his political career, and there will be new stars to focus on in boxing. The fight has already lost much of its appeal. I’m willing to go on record and say that Manny Pacquiao is no longer the 2nd biggest name in boxing anymore (I would place Canelo at #2). Mayweather vs. Pacquiao isn’t happening in 2014, and if it ever happens, please don’t expect to see Pacquiao shock the world. He is damaged goods. I think he’ll beat Brandon Rios in November, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he was put to sleep again.
Even Bernard Hopkins wants a piece of the Mayweather pie. B-Hop stated he would make 160 lbs. by May 3rd to take on Floyd Mayweather if Mayweather was willing to make the fight. It might not be such a bad idea for all parties involved. Mayweather is going to have a tough time finding a credible opponent in May (Amir Khan is not a credible opponent), and Bernard Hopkins may be the most low-risk, high-risk opponent Mayweather would take on. First off, at 48-years-old, Hopkins would have to kill himself to make 160. Secondly, Mayweather would have an advantage in just about every category over Hopkins (with the exceptions of experience and power). Third, Mayweather vs. Hopkins would remind folks of Rocky Balboa vs. Mason “The Line” Dixon (played by Antonio Tarver) in the most recent Rocky movie. How many people would be talking about the time George Foreman shocked the world? Most boxing fans who currently steer clear of the sport, because of the corruption, were still huge fans when Hopkins was in the middle of his 10-year run as middleweight champion. I’m telling you right now, Mayweather vs. Hopkins would have the true feel of a Rocky movie and might be Showtime, Golden Boy Promotions, and Mayweather Promotions best chance at a successful pay-per-view extravaganza in May. This fight would not be about the entertainment value in the ring, but rather the old man’s one last chance to knock off the invincible Goliath.
C.J. Ross is taking an indefinite leave from boxing. Hallelujah! No more controversial decisions in boxing…oh wait, nevermind.
I truly feel bad for British boxing fans everywhere. I know I have been completely bashing the David Haye vs. Tyson Fury fight because it is going to be a terrible affair, but England’s boxing fanatics are going bonkers about this fight, and for Haye to suffer a nasty gash over his eye (I saw the picture and I don’t think he is faking it) is tough to swallow. Based on the resumes and quality of sparring alone, I believe Haye would make easy work of Fury, but if the two end up rescheduling the fight, it will be great for British boxing fans everywhere. If HBO is willing to throw down some dough to televise a heavyweight fight between two non-Americans, there had to be some serious buzz in the air.
Is anyone really surprised that Andre Ward vs. Edwin Rodriguez was officially finalized? We all know Ward doesn’t have many options right now at super middleweight and Rodriguez, even though I thought he was crazy for turning down $800,000, is not necessarily a legitimate threat to Ward. Good for Edwin and company for forcing Ward and HBO’s hand in getting every last cent he could. Deep down, we all know Ward is going to dominate that fight and Rodriguez is never going to be on the elite level. Because Andre Ward cleaned out the 168 lb. division, the number of real threats he has are minimal. I’m sure he’ll be rooting extremely hard for Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. on Saturday night in hopes of making a pay-per-view clash with the young Mexican.
Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. is going to have a tough time with Bryan Vera on Saturday night before eventually stopping him in the later rounds. Vera is a solid all-around fighter, but he is a middleweight at the end of the day. Chavez Jr. is a light heavyweight who has been fighting at middleweight by killing himself to make 160. This fight is now contracted at 168 lbs. after increasing several times. We have seen the last of Chavez Jr. at middleweight and this fight will earn him a shot at Andre Ward, but Chavez Jr. is going to look terrible. Vera is going to outbox Chavez Jr. for the first half of the fight, but the size and strength of Chavez Jr. will carry him to victory.
Tavoris Cloud is going to cause Adonis Stevenson some major issues. If Stevenson thinks he is going to steamroll Cloud, like he did Chad Dawson, he is sorely mistaken. Cloud is one of the biggest punchers in boxing and has a very solid chin to boot. Stevenson has been knocked out before (by Darnell Boone) while Cloud has gone through a series of promotional issues (as everyone does with Don King). If Stevenson is going to stand toe-to-toe with the one-dimensional Cloud, this fight will end by knockout…in favor of Cloud. Stevenson needs to use his legs and try to box Cloud from the outside because he doesn’t want to go to war with “Thunder.”
In two weekends, we’ll all get the chance to see if Miguel Cotto still has one more run left in him. Cotto takes on the very formidable and multiple time world title challenger Delvin Rodriguez. If Cotto truly wants a shot at Canelo Alvarez, or Sergio Martinez, he needs to look spectacular because not many people feel he has the goods anymore. Cotto, who began working with Freddie Roach, is looking for a knockout of Rodriguez to make a serious statement. If Cotto looks great on October 5th, he might be able to lure HBO and Showtime into a bidding war for his services. HBO would try to make the Martinez fight while Showtime would try to make the Canelo fight. Both of those fights are pay-per-view worthy.
The heavyweight super-fight everyone has been waiting for is also taking place on Saturday, October 5th. In just 12 short days, everyone will watch Wladimir Klitschko destroy the hype-job that is Alexander Povetkin. Both Klitschko and Povetkin will be getting paid handsomely for this bout, but make no mistake, this will not be competitive. Klitschko will knock Povetkin out. Bank on it!
The Kelly Pavlik saga continues. It’s a shame when someone’s life is going down in flames. It’s even worse when that someone is a well-known public figure because the news media outlets are all over it. Former middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik was arrested again in Youngstown, Ohio this past week for failing to appear in court after he stiffed a cab driver on a $25 cab fare from a local bar in Youngstown near his home. Sometimes, addiction is far beyond repair and the temptation outweighs the positivity of sobriety. For Pavlik’s sake, I hope he isn’t trying to end his life because he has a family and a lot to live for. Boxing fans everywhere are praying Pavlik gets the proper help he needs. Same goes for Oscar de La Hoya.
Each week, I feature an email from a fan on Observe and Fight. This week’s email comes to us from Courtney Buckley, all the way from London regarding Danny Garcia’s lack of respect on most writers pound for pound lists…
“Hi Dave, big fan of your posts. My question revolves around Danny Garcia not been included in the pound 4 pound rankings. Why is this still the case? He has beaten those who have been ranked in the division for the past year (Khan, Matthysse & Judah) and has not even placed in 10th place. Saul Alvarez only fought one legitimate 154 contender in Austin Trout manages to have a position and Manny Pacquiao despite coming off two consecutive losses, however controversial they may be is still ranked pound for pound! Is there something I am missing? Is it based on marketability? Simply because I cannot comprehend how you could be in the pound for pound rankings unless you are a champion of some sort (A case could be made for those competitive divisions where all the fights cannot be made due to promotional wrangles etc.). I guess I am seeking clarity as to what you have to do to be considered because it doesn’t seem like winning fights and being champion is required and that is what Garcia has been doing against decent opposition for a while now.”
Great question, Courtney. In all honesty, pound-for-pound rankings are the most subjective lists in sports. There is absolutely no way to determine who really is the best fighter in the sport because there are so many guys in so many weight classes, they can’t possibly fight each other. One thing I know for certain, I will not look at certain publications P4P ratings because they have their own agenda. For example, I’m not saying the rankings are corrupted at Ring Magazine, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they placed a Golden Boy fighter ahead of another promotional company’s fighter because Ring Magazine is owned by Golden Boy Promotions. Maybe it is based somewhat on marketability. In the last P4P rankings issued by Ring Magazine, Adrien Broner was rated 7th overall, one spot ahead of Top Rank fighter, Timothy Bradley. I’m not saying that Bradley is better than Broner, but I am of the belief that you have to earn your place on the P4P list by defeating top level opposition. Bradley has certainly done that, and more, while Broner’s only significant win came against Paulie Malignaggi. There certainly has to be some sort of bias in these lists because it is based solely on opinion and not some scientific formula. After Danny Garcia’s most recent victory over Lucas Matthysse, that gives him victories over Matthysse, Erik Morales (twice), Amir Khan, Zab Judah, Nate Campbell, Kendall Holt, and Ashley Theophane (who put up an impressive showing against Pablo Cesar Cano). If Garcia is not rated in everyone’s Top-10 by now (or even in the Top-5 possibly) it would be an absolute travesty. Based on merit alone, anyone who still doesn’t give Garcia his just due is just plain ignorant and shouldn’t be considered a credible source in boxing circles. That’s all I’ve got for this week. Observe and Fight will be taking a week off but will return on Monday, October 7th. Email any questions or comments to [email protected] and I will answer them throughout the week. Your email may be featured in the next “Observe and Fight.” Follow me on Twitter @BoxingObserver, and be sure to “Like” The Boxing Observer on Facebook.
