Making his US debut on Saturday evening in Atlantic City, IBF middleweight champion Daniel Geale (29-1) will defend his title against the battle-tested Darren Barker (25-1) of England.
Australian Geale, who will enter the bout as a near two-to-one favorite, will be making his fifth defense after capturing the belt from Sebastian Sylvester in 2011.
For Barker, this will be his second attempt at a version of the middleweight championship. Barker was last seen on American soil in October of 2011, when he admirably tested, but ultimately succumbed to WBC champion, Sergio Martinez in 11 rounds.
Head to Head Geale and Barker are strikingly similar in most measurable categories; particularly age, size, and knock-out percentage, with a slight edge to Barker in height and reach, and to Geale in experience (rounds).
Since neither man has extraordinary punching power, the smart money is on a distance fight, with the typically busier Geale likely holding an advantage in output, and Barker in accuracy.
While the Aussie is not a precise puncher, Barker’s style and frame leave him susceptible to body shots. Against Sergio Martinez, Barker spent the majority of time charging forward with a high double-guard, leaving his long torso open to punishment.
Even an inaccurate volume worker like Geale should have little trouble finding this target. As a counter puncher, Barker has shown an ability to land consistently, so the outcome could be decided by which style most pleases the judges ? activity and work rate or clean, accurate punching.
The bottom line is that these are two fairly nondescript boxers, though one owns a title and the other, at one time, came close enough to warrant a second opportunity.
The Significance So, what’s the appeal here?
Good question.
In order to understand the significance of this fight, one must take a step back in order to analyze the middleweight landscape. Since 2010, Sergio Martinez has been the recognized champion at 160lbs, but he is unlikely to re-enter the ring until mid-2014 due to injury. WBA middleweight champion, Gennady Golovkin, who is tentatively scheduled to fight on November 2nd, is considered, by many, as the future of the division, and has certainly received his share of hype from writers and commentators.
It is clear that a Martinez vs Golovkin match-up is the ultimate goal for the sport’s marketers, but it is important to consider timing, and the chain of events which must lead up to such a mega fight.
Martinez, 38, is growing longer in the tooth and, after a period of inactivity, will likely take a tune-up fight before facing Golovkin. Even if Maravilla returns in the first quarter of 2014, the target date for a GGG bout cannot, realistically, be earlier than the summer of 2014. In the meantime, Golovkin needs to stay busy and, perhaps more importantly, will need to build a reputation in the ring that, at least, approximates what the media has portrayed. Assuming that Golovkin faces Curtis Stevens in November, as some have speculated, he will still need one more fight with a reputable opponent before a potential meeting with Martinez in mid-late 2014.
Hopefully this is starting to crystalize.
The Business of Boxing As we ponder viable Golovkin opponents for early 2014, we are reminded that boxing, unfortunately, is more about which fights are makeable rather than which make the most show-business sense.
Translation: Matches that can be made without network or promotional barriers. This is where the rubber meets the road.
Martinez, Golovkin, Barker and Geale each have a network television relationship with HBO and collectively, hold three of four middleweight belts. In addition, none of the four are involved in the Top Rank/Golden Boy promotional cold war. The only other belt holder at 160lbs is Peter Quillan who is promoted by Golden Boy, whose fighters are presently banned, contractually, from appearing on HBO.
That leaves the belt-holding winner of Geale vs Barker as the ideal candidate for a title consolidation match with Golovkin in early 2014.
For the many who sip HBO’s kool-aid and believe that GGG beats Stevens and the Geale/Barker winner, the stage would then be set for a pay-per-view, three-title unification bout with Sergio Martinez in 2014.
So, there you have it; Geale/Barker is just another brick in HBO’s Golovkin pedestal.
Saturday’s fight might be competitive, possibly even exciting, but truthfully, it does not matter who wins. The victor will just be a pawn in HBO’s one year plan.
Patience, everyone – we need to take the long view here. It’s a business and there’s money on the table.
———————- Geale vs Bearker Time: 9:45 pm ET (U.S.), 11:45 am Sunday (Sydney, Australia), 2:45 am (London, England)
Broadcast: HBO (U.S.)
