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Pacquiao?s risky early return

It appears that amid concerns about his health and lack of focus, Manny ?PacMan? Pacquiao will lace on the gloves again in his bid to avenge the devastating sixth-round knockout loss he suffered in the hands of Mexican Juan Manuel Marquez in December. The only question is whether or not Pacquiao will take a tune-up match before confronting Marquez for the fifth time.

If trainer Freddie Roach would have it his way, Pacquiao should skip any tune-up and jump straight into the cauldron with Marquez. This kind of thinking is dangerous, if not suicidal. Marquez did not just beat Pacquiao; he left him nearly decapitated. The knockout loss Pacquiao suffered in the hands of Marquez is the type that instantly trims down the confidence of the losing boxer to the size of a hobbit. History further shows that a great fighter who loses badly in a high-profile fight and hankers for an immediate rematch ends up getting knocked out again. In some cases, the beating in the return encounter is more brutal. This is because the psychological trauma that follows a numbing knockout loss takes longer to heal. It is no different from what the victim of a heinous offense goes through when he returns to the scene of the crime. The victim is likely to break down in a wink of an eye because the memory of the incident is still fresh in his mind.

If Pacquiao wants to be the lord of the ring again, he will have to start from scratch. Pacquiao has been previously knocked out before and he was able to return with a vengeance. But it is different this time because he is older (34 years old) and, in the opinion of some astute observers, shop-worn. Even before the Marquez fight, there were already loose whispers that Pacquiao was no longer his old, explosive self.

Given the situation Pacquiao is in, a tune-up is mandatory. He needs to work up a sweat against a low-profile adversary to fine-tune the loose edges in his arsenal and get his confidence back. Reports have it that Pacquiao is mulling on a return in April and is eyeing either American-Mexican Jessie Vargas or Ukrainian Vyacheslav Senchenko.

Senchenko, 35, is a former World Boxing Association welterweight champion and is best remembered for sending Ricky ?Hitman? Hatton back to the retirement pasture with a ninth-round knockout victory in November. The tall (5?10?) and lanky Senchenko, 33-1 with 22 knockouts, was losing to Hatton when he caught the tiring Briton with a perfect body shot. Former Olympian Senchenko packs decent power, but is tough to sell because of his age and lean fan base.

In contrast, the 23-year-old Vargas is a hush puppy who parades an unbeaten record of 21-0 with 9 knockouts. Vargas, who learned how to box at age six, is easier to sell because he fights for Top Rank Promotions and has Mexican blood running in his veins. Moreover, with only nine knockouts in his resume, Vargas figures to be a safe foe for Pacquiao. Vargas holds victories over former world champions Vivian Harris and Steve Forbes, but remains untested. He has not scored a knockout victory in his last five fights and was lucky to escape with a split decision victory over Mexican Josesito Lopez in September 2011. The only time Vargas displayed a noticeable jump in his killer instinct was in October 2008, when he hit his opponent Trenton Titsworth off a break after the latter kissed him on the neck.

Pacquiao will remain the favorite if he ends up fighting Vargas or Senchenko, but it will be tough to bet the entire rent money on the PacMan. While Vargas and Senchenko are far from being world-class boxers, the possibility that Pacquiao may already be past his prime narrows the odds. Truth be told, as his return to the squared circle looms, Pacquiao has not shown anything to convince his followers that his attention is now solely fixed on the sport. Not a few even believe that Pacquiao is returning ahead of schedule because he wants to recapture the image of a winner before he dips his fists into the political jar again in the May elections.

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