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Juan Manuel Marquez’s No-Win Situation Against Manny Pacquiao

COMMENTARY | On December 8, when Juan Manuel Marquez steps into the ring with Manny Pacquiao at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, he’ll be forced into a situation where he’ll likely have to change his fundamental style and fighting temperament if he wants to stand a chance of winning. This is obviously something that has been weighing heavily on the mind of the 39-year-old former four-division world champ from Mexico City.

“Anything can happen if the fight reaches the distance,” Marquez told Ernesto Castellanos of Boxingscene and Notifight.com. “This time I’m going to fight in a way that will certainly erase any doubts [on who the winner is]. It’s going to be very difficult to rob me in the fight. The strategy will be to look for a knockout.”

Marquez has already fought three prior contests with Pacquiao, with all three ending in close decisions. Officially, the Mexican is 0-2-1, but there’s no small number of people who feel that it could very easily be Pacquiao without a victory in the well-fought series. And, whether one believes that Marquez should’ve taken any (or all) of their previous battles, nobody can argue the fact that Marquez tests and stumps the Filipino icon like no one else.

Part of Marquez’s success is that he calmly, coolly approaches the battle with his arch-rival, not allowing temper or ego to push him into a frenzied firefight.

With a calm mind, the Mexican future hall of famer can focus on his game plan and on doing all of the little things that have made him successful against Pacquiao.

Using simple, basic footwork to negate Pacquiao’s offensive surges, Marquez has been able to control the perimeter of the fight, keeping Manny from darting in and out to launch his two-fisted attacks. As a result, unlike any fighter to ever face the 8-division former world champ, Marquez has been able to almost completely control the pace of their bouts.

To make sure the pace stays right and the fight perimeter remains established, the Mexican, of course, has to make Pacquiao respect his power. And Marquez just happens to be, possibly, one of the two best counter-punchers in the game (the other being Floyd Mayweather).

So, with enough power to earn respect and the technical, tactical mind needed to devise the proper strategies, Marquez has become the perfect Pacquiao opponent. Unfortunately, with the focus and energy Marquez has to devote to nullifying Pacquiao, there’s little time left to launch his own sustained offensive surges. Given this situation, it’s completely understandable how each of their bouts has been a close decision and how any future bouts, fought under similar conditions, would likely be close tactical chess matches as well.

For one to gain a significant edge over the other he’d have to alter his fundamental style and/or mindset. However, in a bit of a Catch-22 situation, if one of the two were to change anything, the other would be able to execute their own, usual, and comfortable way of fighting.

Given Marquez’s obsession with the perceived robberies in his last fights with Pacquiao, it’s understandable how he may want to avoid hearing a judge’s scorecard in this upcoming bout. An offense-minded Marquez will be less able to focus on the finer points of his game. As a result, he will also become more vulnerable to Pacquiao’s attacks.

In other words, while pushing for his own knockout, he becomes infinitely susceptible to being knocked out.

For the record, Pacquiao has also promised to be more aggressive in order to avoid another close decision. But this is Pacquiao’s natural mindset and disposition. In a frenzied back-and-forth, Pacquiao will be fighting in his natural element and that could make all the difference.

Marquez has to be aware of the inherent risks involved in going for the knockout, but with one last shot at removing the Pacquiao chip off his shoulder, he’s apparently willing to roll the dice.

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