While we all know that fights aren’t fought on paper, those in attendance in Carson,CA. tomorrow night have odds as high as they get that they are going to see something special in a fantastic doubleheader that features two of the sports better fighters in the main Event and two of the sports best blood and guts warriors in the co-feature. Hardcore fans have had this date targeted since it was rumored and I know we are all doing our part to fill the casual fans. Sometimes that blows up in your face, but ya gotta fight the good fight.
Many people have Nonito Donaire inside their mythical P4P rankings, I am not one of those people. He certainly has the talent, but I honestly consider his matchmaking something that Floyd Mayweather could call safe. That’s not to say he’s been beating stiffs by any means, but with his talent and size the bouts have been carefully orchestrated for many years until recently. Jeffrey Mathebula isn’t a household name, but that was a step up in my eyes and he is taking a step further here when he faces perennial champion Toshiaki Nishioka.
The Filipino Flash is immersed in talent; blinding hand speed, razor sharp reflexes & one punch power. He also has a granite chin so the weaknesses in the package aren’t vast. To me, the only flaw I can spot is his ability to fight inside; Mthalane was really troubling him with his face in his chest but that strategy also means you’re constantly coming forward into his lethal counter hook. Something I can’t call a weakness, just a perception, is he doesn’t appear to have the thought process to break down the fighter in front of him when the style isn’t straight forward. That being said, it’s a fairly weak criticism when those results have been near shutout decision victories. In this fight he is going to need his brain as much as his brawn. Nishioka is an awkward fighter that might not offer up the counter opportunities that Donaire thrives on.
While many fight fans may not have seen a lot of Nishioka, he has been fighting at the championship level for over a dozen years and hasn’t lost a fight since he dropped a unanimous decision in his fourth fight against the perpetually underrated Veeraphol Sahaprom over eight years ago. He is an awkward southpaw with fantastic footwork, speedy hands & underrated power. If there is a hole in his game, besides his advanced age for the weight class, I would say it comes on the inside but that isn’t Donaire’s strength either so I think we’re looking at a mid-range to outside contest.
My gut tells me we are looking at a high speed chess match with a lot of feinting between two guys who are careful not to make a mistake. However, when you have two fighters at the top of their division with an immense will to win you can never tell exactly what is going to go down, Jermain Taylor vs Winky Wright anyone? I also feel there will be infrequent, but explosive exchanges. Nishioka bounces in and out and I think Donaire is going to struggle to time him with his big time bombs but his athleticism will enable him to bother Toshiaki and I do expect Nonito to score to body when he is able to cut off the ring. There should be a nice ebb and flow with very close rounds. In the end I have to go with Donaire by close decision and if that is the case, my objections to his lofty standings in the meaningless P4P debate will vanish.
*****
The co-feature between Brandon Rios & Mike Alvarado is one of those fights that you can’t possibly envision anything but a war. Couple that with it being nearly impossible to predict and I for one am brimming with anticipation. The fact that it is only ten rounds does little to dissuade my excitement because I don’t know that either one of them should have to take two more rounds of the hell that they’re going to endure. It’s one of those bouts that even if it ends early, it’s going to be violent and leave you satisfied.
Brandon Rios is a polarizing fighter whose trash talk had him on the brink of stardom. Since then he has suffered through two debacles on the scales and received a decision in his last fight against Richard Abril that was, frankly, as abysmal as you’ll ever see. That being said, Rios is a proud warrior and his back is against the wall. That’s a dangerous proposition for anyone and I fully expect him to lay everything out in the ring against a style much more suited for him than the slick Cuban.
Rios is the kind of fighter that people call slow and plodding, to me that’s a misconception. His feet are actually fairly quick and he doesn’t waste a step as he comes forward. he wont have any trouble finding Alvarado but his underrated footwork can help set up some of his deceptively accurate punches from range. He has a good straight right hand and is a thudding body puncher, he’ll need all that and then some.
Mike Alvarado is another fighter who has struggled more out of the ring than he has in it. I’m not one to dwell on athletes private lives so I’ll just leave it that some of his progress has been stunted by legal troubles. This is a big step up in class for Mile High, but one that I think he is definitively prepared for after thrilling wins over Breidis Prescott & Mauricio Herrera.
Alvarado has a tremendous will as he exhibited in his final round come from behind stoppage over the aforementioned Prescott. Mike is built like a tank and also is a proficient body puncher with hard uppercuts and right hands to boot. I think if Brandon actually commits to using his jab that could be a problem for Alvarado as he is better versed at in-fighting.
Batten down the hatches, get your popcorn, lock away the women and children, don’t blink or go to the bathroom and “lets get ready to rumble” because “it’s showtime!” Two undefeated brawlers with everything to gain and a lot to lose that do nothing but come forward and launch missiles, it’s not only all they know it’s who they are. I’m quite comfortable saying that this is a can’t miss fight and it WILL be the fight of the year.
Rios tends to start slowly and I expect that to be the case here giving Alvarado the early edge while he bounces heavy artillery off of Brandon’s chin. That should wake Rios up fairly early and then he will start to begin to go to work with his debilitating body attack while they engage in high octane fury nose to nose. Expect them both to get wobbled, maybe even dropped during the first six or seven rounds. I may as well have flipped a coin to be honest, but something tells me that Rios is just not going to be denied. Possibly down on the cards, both battered and bloodied, I am calling for Rios to erupt in the final round and score a stoppage in an epic war that elevates both men’s standing and washes away all of the disappointment in Brandon’s recent career. Right or wrong, I can’t wait to watch it and I hope you all do too.
*crosses fingers that Rios makes weight*
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