As the Hopkins-Dawson rematch approaches this Saturday night, billed as ?Once and For All,? I believe that Dawson has a better chance this time around than I had concluded regarding their initial foray. And although in reality this is more a continuance of unfinished business rather than a rematch, though abrupt, the first encounter between Hopkins and Dawson would be somewhat revealing as to what could possibly transpire in the ring at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey this weekend. First off, Bernard Hopkins, even though dedicated to the sport of boxing like few others are, complete with his high level training regimen and the disciplined dietary habits which have enabled him to become the oldest fighter in history to capture a world title, Bernard isn?t getting any younger. The other side of the coin is that perhaps, just perhaps, Chad Dawson has become a little wiser. After a wound up Dawson would rant post fight about how he had earned his new but temporary position as the WBC light heavyweight world champion after their first debacle of a match up, and how Hopkins took a dive to get out of that fight after clearly having executed against him what could only be looked at as a take down move, quite possibly ?Bad? Chad has calmed down a bit. And if he doesn?t allow Bernard to win a psychological battle before the actual physical encounter takes place, something Bernard is quite well known to do, then Chad may be able to execute against ?The Executioner.? This scenario is possible only if ?Bad? Chad Dawson lets his hands and feet do his bidding, while he keeps his wits about him, as opposed to allowing his emotions to get the best of him where he want?s to take Hopkins head off. Otherwise this will play right into the hands of the Hall of Fame bound fighter who likes to think he?s ?crazy like a fox.? Another potential revelation, aside from the fact that perhaps Chad Dawson will avoid anger and focus on the task at hand, is that he was able to do at least one thing he needed to do in that first bout which would enable him to have success against Hopkins the second time around. Specifically, Chad was able to land a few short punches on an incoming Hopkins, against whom it is totally necessary being that Bernard makes a living by getting in close to smother, as well as rough up opponents. Other than this demonstrable asset for ?Bad Chad,? the downside is that he would seemingly dispense with an all important jab early on during their brief encounter last October, a move which in combination with Bernard? dogged determination to get in tight, would allow the Philadelphia fighter to close the gap as early as round 1. This may in fact have led to frustration on the part of Dawson which prompted, and/or contributed to, Chad throwing off his opponent in the first place. Dawson? trainer John Scully knows the jab is an indispensable item, which when utilized with proper timing and some lateral movement, would keep Hopkins at bay and allow his quicker handed charge to follow up with combinations. This scenario will force ?B-Hop? to use his older legs more, which may take a toll on the aging fighter who is prone as of late to come on strong in the second half of his fights. And with the reality being that Chad Dawson is not a big puncher to begin with, talking about he is going to knock somebody out, if indeed he does pursue this course of action, he may be setting himself up for disappointment as had Jean Pascal when the Canadian based Haitian fighter all but wore himself out trying to put Hopkins down and out. If there is a good sign for Dawson, then it seems to come out of some recent statements made by New Haven, Connecticut resident. ?Bernard?s 47 years old. If we keep our punch output up he?s going to have to keep up with me or else he?s just going to lose a 12 round unanimous decision. The more he works the better it?s going to be for me. At the end of the day, I?m going to outbox him, outpoint him, do everything I?ve got to do to win the fight. On the 28th I?m coming out to fight. I?m not coming out mad or to try to knock this guy out. I?ll take the win anyway it comes. I just want to get rid of Bernard Hopkins.? If indeed Dawson can stay true to these words, his chances at victory will rise markedly. Of course easier said than done. Bernard is not only a master of mind games, but he is also a master boxer by virtue of being solidly grounded in fundamentals all the way around, both defensively and offensively, from which he is able to execute with the expertise and precision he has gained over time throughout his legendary trek. And if there is further motivation in this fight for ?B-Hop,? besides looking to silence his younger counterpart, it could be that Bernard is perhaps looking to set another record by becoming the oldest reigning champion ever, chasing ?The Old Mongoose? himself Archie Moore, who made his last title defense at 47 years and seven months old. Should Hopkins emerge triumphant on April 28th, he will move one step closer to reaching that goal. One thing is certain though, and that is, it would no doubt be a wise choice on the part of Dawson to look for a decision victory by virtue of the fact that the he possesses all of a 51% knockout ratio compiled against other than top tier fighters. To boot, with the exception of his loss to Jean Pascal and the no-contest verdict issued in his first bout with Hopkins last year, Dawson hasn?t stopped anybody lately, going the distance in his last several fights. So unless he uses the ring and whatever smarts he has, he is liable to become victim to the ageless warrior that is Bernard Hopkins. With that said, outside of what I?ve already mentioned in regards to Dawson possibly having a better chance in making a second go of it, it?s perhaps relevant to compare the common opponents of both Chad and Bernard which I have done below. But before I do that, I want to reiterate that Chad Dawson was for all intensive purposes touted to be the future of the light heavyweight division. However, in moving up from the middleweight ranks, it?s apparent that ?Bad? Chad didn?t bring whatever power he had with him, nor the expectations of many observers who claimed he was the next big thing. Since moving up, Chad has only gained three stoppages in his last eleven fights, which came against little known fighters, while he went the distance in all other confrontations against high level opponents, amongst which included victories over Tomasz Adamek and Adrian Diaconu once each, and two wins each over faded fighters Antonio Tarver and Glen Johnson, all by unanimous decision. This is despite the fact that I and many others had Glen Johnson outworking Dawson in their first fight, as ?The Road Warrior? kept up the pressure to seemingly outpoint a fading Dawson. Chad, undefeated throughout his career, would suffer his first professional loss to Jean Pascal in August of 2010, wherein which the bout would be stopped in the eleventh round due to an accidental head butt initiated by the tentative Dawson, who was all but reluctant to press the action or take chances for most of the bout, allowing Pascal to build up an insurmountable lead to defeat Chad handily in a less than worthy performance. This is a revealing bout in that Pascal is a common opponent of both Dawson and Hopkins, as well as are Antonio Tarver and Glen Johnson. So let?s look into these previous match ups to perhaps gain some insight as to what may play out during the Hopkins/Dawson title rematch. Let?s look at Johnson first. Glen Johnson in his first fight with Chad got the best of Dawson by far on the inside, while Chad no doubt escaped with a controversial unanimous decision victory, which upon the verdict being read drew an overwhelming reign of boo?s from the attending crowd. Dawson would experience his best success in the mid rounds in that fight by getting on his bicycle to box from the outside, while using angles and lateral movement in a contest that could have, and perhaps should have went Johnson?s way. Glen by all accounts appeared to land the more effective punches throughout, rocking Dawson in the tenth round. On the other hand, and although it was way back in 1997 when Glen Johnson and ?B-Hop? were pitted against one another, Johnson, who fights stylistically just as he had in the past, was battered by Hopkins in all phases of the bout, as Bernard would gain the only stoppage ever suffered by Glen over the course of a 68 fight career, ending by a TKO 11. It is also revealing that Johnson, in his prime when he fought Hopkins, was much more agile and athletic then, as opposed to when he met Dawson much later in his career in April of 2008 . In referring to the third common opponent of both Dawson and Hopkins, Antonio Tarver, when Hopkins mixed it up with Antonio in ?B-Hop?s? light heavyweight debut back in 2006, Tarver had no answer for Bernard? mixed attack, and was simply outclassed and overwhelmed to by fights end applaud Hopkins workmanlike performance. With Bernard coming out of his crouch to land his vaunted right hand, Antonio, similar to Dawson in that he keeps his head on a platter while throwing his punches, would prove to be an easy target for Hopkins. Bernard in contrast moves his head and rotates his shoulders while he punches, making the veteran fighter an elusive target while he is able to land repeatedly in what many refer to as an unconventional style. In Chad?s two bouts with a beyond his prime Antonio Tarver in 2008 and 2009, Chad was assisted in his victories by virtue of the fact that Antonio not only allowed Dawson the space he needed to get off his punches, but Tarver rarely used his jab, as well as failed to put his punches together, instead rather looking for the knockout punch. This will not be the case against Hopkins who?s smothering style will create fits for Dawson who will find it difficult in many instances to get his punches off the way he would like.
Dawson? main asset is his hand speed, which when he let?s his hands go, he becomes a formidable foe, mixing punches to the head and body as well as anyone. However, Chad? tendency is to fight in spots rather than in a consistent manner, which is all the more bewildering since he is totally effective when he throws quick combinations and uses his footwork. These of Dawson? attributes also serve to be his best defense, because a good defensive fighter he is not. Dawson lacks discipline and know how in the defensive department, and that will cost him in the Hopkins fight if he hasn?t shored up on it. ?Bad? Chad is also a momentum fighter, where if things are going his way he is effective, especially when he gets his punches off first and controls range. But in not having effective power against the division?s best, he can be discouraged when he doesn?t get the desired effect from landing his shots. ?Bad? Chad becomes even more discouraged when he takes punishment, as his demeanor changes, with the result being that he can have the fight taken out of him. Not only did Pascal take some of the starch out of Dawson, but specifically engaging Glen Johnson on the inside took the fight out of him as well, and it will assuredly spell disaster against the savvy ring veteran Hopkins if Chad were to pursue that course of action. The keys to victory for Dawson in facing Bernard Hopkins are thus, he must keep Hopkins at range first of all with a stiff jab so he can get off his fast combinations and avoid counters, after which he must use his feet to prevent Bernard from getting inside where Hopkins would dominate. Not only is Chad very uncomfortable at close range, evidenced by the fact that when opponents get inside rather than punch he will push them away, but Dawson is not very adept at infighting. Secondly, ?Bad? Chad as the challenger to Hopkins title must be consistent throughout the bout to give the judges the impression that he is in control. And lastly, Dawson must not become discouraged if he is unable to forcefully deter Hopkins, as once more Chad is not the biggest of punchers. These keys to victory, which when not applied by the challenging Chad Dawson, will lead to his demise. In fact without consistent movement by the challenger, it may figure to be an uphill battle because first of all Bernard postures differently than any other fighter Chad has, or will face. Fighting from a crouching stance that doesn?t leave his body open, or much of anything else, Bernard holds a distinct advantage during exchanges because Dawson not only carries his right hand low, which will allow Hopkins to use a jab as well as administer his right hand, but Dawson? head remains still while he punches, whereas Bernard moves his head, rotates his shoulders, and transfers his weight while delivering his shots. This may leave Dawson a sitting duck, similar to the way in which Sergio Martinez was able to find and then connect on Paul Williams. Additionally, when Chad drops body shots, he doesn?t dip into them but remains standing tall which allows too much open space, a circumstance where Hopkins could very well find counterpunch opportunities in between those shots. This is provided ?B-Hop can still pull the trigger with precise timing, which if he can, would lessen any hand speed advantage on the part of the challenger, especially as the bout progresses. Bernard is a master technician who in my opinion may prove to be too versatile for Chad Dawson. He can do it all. He can box outside or fight up close. He knows when to press and when to pull out. He can stand in front of you ala Roberto Duran, track you down and beat you like a Mike Tyson, or counter punch like Archie Moore. He mixes his attack to the point where you don?t know what to expect, sometimes throwing punches he shouldn?t just to keep you off balance, all while smothering and limiting an adversary?s opportunities. Combine these facts with the low KO percentage on the part of Dawson, and this fight will no doubt go into the latter rounds. Or if there is a knockout, it will be Hopkins doing the deed. Not to overstate it, but Chad is totally vulnerable to right hands, being dropped by Tomasz Adamek, as well as eating many a solid right from Jean Pascal in their recent bout. Chad will be a victim of Bernard? prolific right hand from the get go, which will open up other assorted punches when B-Hop gets inside. And inside he will get, as he has done on every opponent he has faced to date. Hopkins knows that getting on Dawson like a cheap suit is one of his keys to victory, which is why Bernard is most likely to be aggressive. As opposed to many thinking that the chances of Bernard winning a fight against a sticking and moving Dawson are nil, I believe ?B-Hop? has at least one more good physical performance left in him that would enable him to deal with the younger challenger. In this fight I see Hopkins characteristically breaking down Chad to control the second half of the fight, imposing his will in much the same way he has throughout his career, to the point that Chad will fold mentally, followed by a physical breakdown for either a late round stoppage, or decision victory for ?The Executioner.? But don?t take my word for it, tune in this weekend to HBO? World Championship Boxing beginning at 10:15 p.m. ET/7:15 p.m. PT, to see Hopkins vs. Dawson: ?Once And For All,? a 12 round bout for Bernard? WBC and Ring Magazine light heavyweight world title belts. This bout is presented by Golden Boy Promotions and Gary Shaw Productions, and is sponsored by Caesars Atlantic City.
