It has been ten months since Erik Morales and Manny Pacquiao staged their epic first battle, and it was a thrilling fight. Even with all the fireworks however, it did unfold down a fairly predictable path. Morales used his superior boxing ability to brilliant effect and frustrated Manny’s attempts at landing the big left. Pacman’s aggression and power was matched blow for blow by El Terrible who insisted on answering ferocious flurries with crunching combos of his own. In the end the brilliant and versatile performance by Morales earned him the unanimous decision.
Here is how the rematch looked in the days following their first meeting:
A rematch would involve all the same display of heart, guts and fireworks as the original.
Never content to outbox an overmatched opponent, Morales seems compelled to out tough them and do so at their own game. A war would surely ensue. This time around, however, Pacquiao would likely object to the use of the more heavily padded, “Winning” brand gloves. The “Reyes” gloves he prefers favor punchers like himself, and Manny for one insists they would have made a significant difference in the fight. There is also the issue of the gash Pacquiao sustained in the fourth round. Brought on by a Morales left and made worse by an accidental clash of heads, the blood that flowed clearly impaired Manny’s vision from the right side. If Pacman’s issues legitimately affected his performance, the rematch is wide open. However, purely based on his performance in the last battle Morales would likely be a slight favorite going into Morales-Pacquiao II.
Not much has changed in the eyes of many observers, but the elements potentially coming into play this weekend are worth discussion. There are four power pills the Pacman will need to survive level 2.
First we have the “Manila Ice” redux. Behind closed doors, trainer Freddie Roach has working on Pacquiao’s latest worst-kept-secret weapon. According to hints offered by Roach, this new and deadly technique will be added Manny’s arsenal and only revealed inside the ring come Saturday night. It’s all very familiar, as similar claims have been made in the past. What is no secret is the fact that the shot Pacman needs to master is the right hook, or uppercut, or anything downstairs…whether Roach decides to give the punch a name or not is up to him.
The point is that Manny needs to give up on that thunderous straight left hand if he hopes to best Erik Morales. It is a terrific shot, but Juan Manuel Marquez showed the blueprint of how to handle it and how little else there is within the Pacquiao repertoire. To his credit, he showed more range and versatility in his last outing against Hector Velazquez, but if Roach hasn’t more fully developed his man’s right side artillery, this one won’t go the distance.
Second, the glove controversy surrounding the first fight has been resolved and, predictably, each man will be using his preferred brand. The Pacquiao camp cited the heavy padding of the Winning gloves as detrimental to their game plan as they greatly reduced the effectiveness of Manny’s usually devastating power. That will not be at issue this time. However, at no time in the first fight was Morales hurt or in trouble as a result of punches, and it is doubtful whether being hit with Reyes gloves will change his resilience or chin.
Furthermore, Morales did manage to open a cut on Pacman’s eye in the first fight. He did so in the fourth round and with heavily padded gloves. Manny has to be as concerned about the power he absorbed as that which he dishes. That being said, the blood may indeed have hampered his vision. The absence of such an issue might allow Pacquiao to be more precise with his shots and, more importantly, tighter on defense.
Finally we come to the X-Factor…or ‘Z-Man’, as he likes to be called. The last time Morales stepped between the ropes, he was sharing the marquee with Pacquiao on a night that was to set the stage and up the hype for this rematch. Manny took care of his business with Velazquez via a well-executed beat down that resulted in a sixth round TKO. Morales squared off against the underestimated, over-looked Zahir ‘Z-Man’ Raheem and was bludgeoned like a soggy, over-the-hill tomato can en route to a dropping a humiliating 12 round decision.
How much that fight affected the psyche of Erik Morales is anyone’s guess, but it should not be over-stated. This was El Terrible’s first lopsided loss, but it was also his first foray into lightweight territory against larger opposition. He was not badly hurt of knocked out in spite of the thrashing he took, and Pacquiao has nowhere near the speed or technical expertise it took for Raheem to be so dominant. Styles make fights, and Z-Man was all wrong for Erik in virtually every facet of the game. Still, the luster and aura surrounding Morales was definitely tarnished by the loss and Manny may be able to use any confidence deficit to his advantage.
As always, we can analyze and speculate about a fight all day, but when the bell rings anything can happen. The past is past, but in the case of fighters, it is their history that allows us to educate our guesses about their future. If each of the four factors considered above come into play to a significant degree, Manny Pacquiao will emerge victorious. However, given the superior skills and abilities of Erik Morales, along with his overall toughness and determination, it is difficult to conceive of him not having the answer for anything Pacman can bring. With pride and redemption on the line, El Terrible is too dangerous and should get by with another hard fought decision win.
