WHY Manny Pacquiao is a mere 3-1 favorite to defeat Tim Bradley seems unreal.
But then, I tell the skeptics that the fight hype has just begun. Wait till the fight proper comes near. And that?s on June 10 (Manila time) at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, when Pacquiao stakes his World Boxing Organization welterweight crown (147 lb) against Bradley, the world junior-welterweight king.
Patience, my dear.
Early bets put Pacquiao, 33, at minus 340. That means your $340 bet for Pacquiao would fetch a measly $100.
For Bradley, 28, he is at plus 280. That means your $100 bet for Bradley would earn $280.
Those are figures that are easily un-Pacquiao like if we go by the odds of his past fights.
Is Pacquiao fast losing the luster in his name?
Is he a fading star as the early numbers attached to the fight seem to suggest?
Well, it could be yes and no.
This has something to do with Pacquiao?s last four fights, which were victories on mere points.
His four previous bouts ended in decisions in his favor against African Joshua Clottey, Mexican Antonio Margarito, American Shane Mosley and Mexican Juan Manuel Marquez.
The Clottey and Mosley fights were black eyes in boxing. Insults. Embarrassments.
Clottey did nothing but cover his face with both his hands every single round to virtually hand a 12-round unanimous win to Pacquiao in 2010. After the farce, Clottey laughed his way to the bank clutching a $10-million paycheck.
After suffering a knockdown in the third round, Mosley literally danced away from harm?s way as Pacquiao scored another 12-round unanimous victory in 2011.
I personally felt Pacquiao could have finished off Mosley after the third-round knockdown in that same round, if not in the fourth.
But Pacquiao seemed to have ?cooperated? with Mosley in orchestrating a bout lasting the distance.
Before the fight, Pacquiao always spoke kindly of Mosley, calling him a ?nice person? several times.
History tells us that once Pacquiao starts to heap praise on a fighter he is about to fight, he?d be half of his ferocious self come fight time.
Before the Mosley fight, Pacquiao was thoroughly convincing in defeating Margarito.
Although it lasted 12 rounds, there was not an iota of doubt that the Margarito fight was vintage Pacquiao at his best.
In fact, going to the 10th round, Margarito?s face had become a bloody mess, a mask of distortion. Pitifully, Pacquiao had transformed Margarito from ?Mexican Tornado? to ?Mexican Tomato.? Margarito?s face was so terribly swollen that only his mother would be the sole person to recognize him after the mutilation.
In that fight, Pacquiao threw everything at Margarito but the Mexican?s sheer weight advantage prevented the Pacman from scoring a knockout.
In case you have forgotten, Margarito was 17 pounds heavier than Pacquiao at fight night.
Now, to the November 2011 Marquez bout whose outcome was deemed controversial by mostly pro-Marquez faction?controversial to them because they believed Pacquiao lost it.
But I disagreed then as I still do today.
Pacquiao?s victory by majority decision was prim and proper.
I submit that Pacquiao struggled in that fight?as in his previous two fights with the counterpunching Mexican in 2004 (draw) and 2008 (split decision win for Pacquiao).
But clearly, Pacquiao won the third one because he was more aggressive than Marquez, and delivered the more telling blows when Marquez decided to mix it up?which came as rare as rain in summer.
Before the decision making Bradley as Pacquiao?s 60th opponent in June, Marquez was also considered. But Pacquiao himself deflected that.
?You don?t want to see the same movie again,? Pacquiao said.
What a graphic description of what might be.
And so, will we see a different movie in the Pacquiao-Bradley fight?
Maybe, if we consider Bradley a foe fit for Pacquiao?s style.
I can see that Bradley is unbeaten in 28 fights (13 KOs). That could either be a minus factor or a plus factor for the fight itself.
Minus, as Bradley might just employ a hit-and-run tactic in hopes of stealing a win on points. That might happen as every fighter worth his salt is always fearful of Pacquiao?s power punches?thus the ploy of fighting long-distance.
Plus, as Bradley might be a real blast and would mix it up with Pacquiao. When that happens, Pacquiao might just snap his mini slump?a slump of failing to win by knockout in his last four fights the last two years.
Otherwise, the Pacquiao luster could be gone? Or, the Pacman could be a fast-fading star?
Take your pick.
