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Preview & Analysis: MORALES VS. PACQUIAO II

Naseem Hamed may be long gone, but his legacy lives on in the form of fighters like Erik Morales and Manny Pacquiao. Hamed ushered in the era of million-dollar featherweights, and since he faded from the scene early in the current millennium, megabucks pay-per-view showdowns at or around 126 have become commonplace. On March 19, 2005, Morales and Pacquiao generated about 350,000 PPV buys and nearly $16-million in pay-per-view revenue with a fight that turned out to be well worth the price. So, naturally, they’re doing it again on January 21, 2006, and the purses will be far from paltry. If Hamed was “The Prince” of featherweight financial fortune, then Morales, Pacquiao, and their mutual rival Marco Antonio Barrera are turning out to be the kings of that same sovereignty.

Money talks, and that’s why Morales’ unexpected slip-up against Zahir Raheem in September couldn’t prevent Morales-Pacquiao II from happening. In certain regards, it may even have made the rematch more appealing, since “El Terrible” won the first fight by unanimous decision. Pacquiao, fighting in the co-feature to Raheem-Morales, looked like he was settling into the super featherweight division as he disposed of Hector Velazquez. Those who were certain that Morales would repeat his feat against “Pac-Man” must now wonder just how certain that result is.

RECORD AND WORLD RATING Morales: Is 48-3 with 34 knockouts … Turned pro in March 1993 … Won WBC super bantamweight belt in September ’97 in 27th bout … Made nine successful defenses before departing the division undefeated … Won WBC featherweight title in February ’01, lost it in June ’02 in second defense (in a bid for the Ring title), regained vacant WBC title in November ’02, and made two defenses before moving up in weight again …Won WBC super feather belt in February ’04, added IBF version in July ’04, but was quickly stripped of IBF title and lost WBC strap in November ’04 … Is rated second at junior lightweight and sixth pound-for-pound by The Ring.

Pacquiao: Is 40-3-2 with 31 kayos … Turned pro in January ’95 … Claimed WBC flyweight title in December ’98, but lost it in second defense, in September ’99, after weighing a pound over the limit and losing by knockout in weight-weakened state … Moved up three divisions and captured IBF junior feather title in June ’01 … Made four defenses before moving up to featherweight and winning the world 126-pound title in November ’03 … Came away with a draw in bid to unify Ring belt with WBA and IBF feather titles in May ’04 … Moved up to junior lightweight in March ’05 … Is rated third at junior lightweight and fifth pound-for-pound by The Ring.

AGE AND PHYSICAL EQUIPMENT Morales: Is 29 years old … Stands 5’8” with a 72-inch reach … Showed minimal dropoffs in power and effectiveness moving from 122 to 126 and from 126 to 130, but appears to have climbed one division too far in testing the 135-pound waters his last fight … Boasts one of the best chins in the business … Susceptible to facial cuts and swellings, but never to the point where it cost him a fight.

Pacquiao: Is 26 years old … Stands 5’6” with a 67-inch reach … Arguably better suited at featherweight than at junior light, but seems to be growing more comfortable with the new weight … Possesses exceptional speed, reflexes, and explosiveness … Chin is good, but not quite made of iron, as he has suffered flash knockdowns throughout career … Suffers the occasional cut, but isn’t what you’d call a bleeder.

BEST WEAPONS Morales: Most effective weapons are probably his heart and resiliency, as he almost always roars back and metes out punishment just when you think you have him in trouble … Hard to say which of his powerpunches is best; left hook, straight right, and searing uppercut can all turn out the lights … Though better known for his slugging, is a dangerous counterpuncher.

Pacquiao: No question about it, his go-to punch is his lightning-fast southpaw straight left hand that collides with opponents’ chins before they even realize the punch has been launched … Quick right jab does a great job of blinding foes and setting up the straight left … Has extraordinary hunger to win, hardly ever taking a backward step.

PREVIOUS FIGHT Morales: For the first time in his career, lost to someone not named Marco Antonio Barrera, as he dropped a unanimous 12-round decision to Zahir Raheem in Los Angeles in September … Weighed career-high 134 pounds, and didn’t carry the weight well … Was outsped and outboxed throughout by the slick lefty, though he did pick up the pace somewhat in the second half of the fight, showing his usual desire and keeping it competitive.

Pacquiao: On the same card as Raheem-Morales, fared much better than rival Morales, pounding out a sixth-round TKO against tough journeyman Hector Velazquez, a fighter who hadn’t been stopped in more than eight years … First couple of rounds were close, but eventually, the Filipino’s speed and power began to tell … It was all Pac-Man by the sixth, and a knockdown at the end of the round convinced ref Lou Moret to stop it.

QUALITY OF OPPOSITION Morales: Has tangled with the very best 122-to-130-pounders of the last decade, mostly with excellent results … Fellow titleholders on his resume include Daniel Zaragoza (KO 11), Junior Jones (KO 4), Wayne McCullough (W 12), Barrera (W 12, L 12, L 12), Kevin Kelley (KO 7), Guty Espadas (W 12, KO 3), Injin Chi (W 12), Paulie Ayala (W 12), Jesus Chavez (W 12), Carlos Hernandez (W 12), and Pacquiao (W 12).

Pacquiao: Has faced lots of elite competition as well, even if the list doesn’t look quite as impressive as “El Terrible’s” … Fellow titlists he’s taken on include Chatchai Sasakul (KO 8), Medgoen 3K-Battery (KO by 3), Lehlo Ledwaba (KO 6), Jorge Eliecer Julio (KO 2), Barrera (KO 11), Juan Manuel Marquez (D 12), and Morales (L 12) … Showed great confidence by taking on Barrera, Marquez, and Morales in a 16-month span.

DEFENSE Morales: Brilliant defensive performances, such as the one against Ayala, are not quite the norm; though the skills are there, his warrior instincts usually overrule them, leading to defensive showings that are spotty at best … Excellent chin is probably part of the reason he gets so careless defensively.

Pacquiao: That old saying about the best defense being a good offense certainly applies here, as Pac-Man’s dynamic punching ability keeps opponents off-balance much more than anything he does on “D” … Trainer Freddie Roach has tried to teach better head movement, but his charge is still easy to hit, especially when he’s darting in.

STYLE Morales: The term “boxer-puncher” was invented for guys like Morales … Has demonstrated an ability to switch from a boxer to a puncher, and vice versa, numerous times in a single fight, but when all’s said and done, seems to enjoy slugging more … Equally effective fighting from a distance or chest-to-chest … One of the most consistently crowd-pleasing warriors of his generation.

Pacquiao: He’s a southpaw, but he’s no cutie—rather, he’s a relentlessly aggressive machine with a heat-seeking missile attached to his left wrist … Varies his punching angles about as creatively as anyone since Prince Hamed … Doesn’t pace himself much, but with his conditioning, doesn’t really need to … Rarely in a dull round, much less a dull fight.

THE QUESTIONS Morales: Can the Raheem loss be chalked up to the wrong weight and/or wrong style, or is El Terrible beginning to fade from all the grueling wars? Will his confidence be affected at all by the Raheem defeat? What impact will his decision to fire his trainer (his father, Jose Morales) have? What does he stand to gain—besides money—by taking a rematch with a fighter he already defeated?

Pacquiao: Is his aggressive style made to order for Morales? Would it serve him well to follow the Raheem blueprint at all and try to make Morales come to him? Based on the power he showed against Velazquez, can his punches do more damage now than they did last March? Where does he go from here if he loses again, to a fighter who’s now coming off a loss?

THE OUTCOME It’s the ultimate boxing clich?, but it’s true: Styles make fights. Morales will be more focused than he was for Raheem, and has all the right attributes to give the slightly less versatile Pacquiao fits. It will be the Mexican by unanimous decision again, with a knockdown or two along the way this time.

20 PREDICTIONS FOR 2006

By William Dettlof

I don’t believe in psychic ability and never have been great at predicting the future. But I feel pretty strongly about these predictions for the coming year. Remember, you read it here first.

1. Cedric Kushner will come around finally to recognize what everyone else already knows: He looked better when he was fat.

2. Don King will continue to get sued by one fighter after another. And just as many will sign long-term, multifight contracts with him.

3. Shannon Briggs will score five more first-round knockouts, talk himself into a fight with Sam Peter, and get his spleen knocked into the fourth row.

4. Bernard Hopkins will make headlines around the sporting world. Not by announcing a comeback or by beating Roy Jones, but by digging into his own pocket to put change in a parking meter.

5. Lennox Lewis will maintain that he is not coming back, and mean it. George Foreman will tell us the opposite, and be lying.

6. Oscar De La Hoya will tell us again how he has to keep fighting because he wants to “save” boxing. Hey, thanks, big guy.

7. John Ruiz will be sorry he sued to get James Toney’s blood tested again for steroids when the re-tests reveal it wasn’t Nandalone after all that was in Toney’s blood when he outpointed Ruiz last April. It was Jamoca Almond Fudge.

8. The debut episode of The Contender on ESPN will draw nine million viewers. The following week it will be pre-empted for the World Series of Backgammon, live from Cleveland.

9. Lou Savarese, tired of competing in triathlons and in the best shape of his life, will announce a comeback, get a fight on ESPN2, and throw an average of three punches a round while losing a unanimous decision to a guy you’ll never see again.

10. Marco Antonio Barrera and Erik Morales will fight again. It will rock.

11. Some guy will remember that the WBC went bankrupt not long ago and wonder how it could be that it’s still around. Then he’ll shake his head.

12. Zab Judah will wake up one morning, look in the mirror, and say: “I’ve got jewelry in my teeth. What the hell was I thinking?”

13. Three or four fighters will die. Nobody will know what to do about it. There won’t be anything to do.

14. Eight or nine fighters nobody ever heard of will get famous on The Contender, four or five will make several hundred thousand dollars, and Thomas Hauser will call for an investigation into ESPN’s unfair labor practices.

15. In about the ninth round of Winky Wright’s win over Jermain Taylor, Lou DiBella’s head will explode at ringside.

16. Don King will announce that due to the sport’s poor health, he’s not able to pay his fighters in money any longer, and will instead compensate them in baked beans. Immediately, Chris Byrd will claim he was shorted two-dozen beans.

17. Jean-Marc Mormeck will run over everyone he faces.

19. There will be no boxing on network television.

19. We will get confirmation, finally, that Tommy Gallagher is the bastard son of Art Carney.

20. Emanuel Steward will offer that Tye Fields is probably the greatest heavyweight he’s ever seen, right before he announces that he’s signed on to train Tye Fields.

Bill Dettloff can be contacted at [email protected]

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