Bernard Hopkins and Chad Dawson will battle for the world light heavyweight championship on Saturday, October 15th. It has been well documented in the past that Hopkins avoided Dawson when Dawson held the title. But Hopkins’s draw and immediate rematch with Jean Pascal, which followed Pascal’s win over Dawson, kind of forced Hopkins into facing Dawson.
Dawson is a slight favorite at -140, which is actually a little shocking to me. Hopkins is again the underdog at +120. Based on recent performances, the line should be even money or Hopkins should be the favorite. But Hopkins actually likes being the underdog because he fuels off doubt.
This is a close fight no matter how I break it down. Dawson is very physically talented. His workrate and southpaw jab alone will win him rounds. But if you look at Dawson closely he has a monotonous style. Sort of like Devon Alexander without the grunts. He does not have alot of creativity in his approach. People like to use the Joe Calzaghe/Jermain Taylor (both of whom beat Hopkins in close fights) comparisions but the difference is those guys just fought. They were reactive instinctive fighters. In Dawson’s fights you can actually observe him thinking before he does certain moves. You can’t fight Hopkins like that.
Dawson also has a poor strong hand. Meaning he is naturally right handed and he fights out of a southpaw stance. He does not turn over a threatening left hand like Taylor did with his right hand from the opposite side. This is very important. He has to keep Hopkins honest. Hopkins can usually take away a power punch and I see him taking away Dawson’s right hook.
Hopkins has one of the best lead right hands I have ever seen. He leans to his left, taking your eyes with him, then he shoots out a right hand straight and clean to your face. He hits everybody with that shot. Dawson stays on a straight line and he gets hit with that shot consistently. Tomas Adamek dropped him with that shot, Geln Johnson and Adrian Diacanou both clipped him several times with the shot. I expect the same in this fight.
