The blog has been quiet this week because the wife and I are out in Las Vegas attending the wedding of two of our friends. On the plus side, that means I am out in Las Vegas, possibly my favorite place in the whole world (though not for long if the tables are as unkind to me as they’ve been over the past few days!).
Every time I’m out here, I like to take a gander at the betting lines on upcoming fights to get an idea of where the public is putting money. The two biggest fights on the fall schedule from a betting standpoint appear to be the Super Six final between Andre Ward and Carl Froch and the final chapter in the trilogy between Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez.
(Before I go on, I should mention that all lines mentioned in this article are from the sports book at the MGM Grand.)
For Ward-Froch, the line is moving in favor of making the American a bigger favorite. Ward opened at -270 and is currently at -300. Froch opened at +230 and stands right now at +250, and even though I slightly favor Ward to win, I must admit that I would be intrigued by betting on The Cobra. My big question would be if he can win emphatically enough to take a decision on American soil, especially in a fight that is not likely to be a pretty one and probably won’t end in a knockout either way.
On that note, the major prop bet on Ward-Froch is whether it will go 11 full rounds, and the line has not moved: -450 for going 11 rounds and +350 for not going 11 rounds. Of course anything can happen in boxing, but even at +350 I wouldn’t be taking the under. Both men are extremely crafty, and neither has shown much one-punch KO power against top competition – unless you count Froch’s stoppage of Jermain Taylor, but I don’t.
