I wanted to wait until after the weigh-in before settling down to preview Saturday?s welterweight title fight between Victor Ortiz and Floyd Mayweather Jr. on PPV from the MGM Grand, Las Vegas. Now, I?ve seen it, and I am starting to buy into Mayweather?s assertion that he really is going to try to win inside the distance. Mayweather has said all along that he won?t be running from Ortiz. ?I?ll be coming straight ahead,? he told this week?s press conference in Las Vegas. As Mayweather is normally a counter puncher, one has to ask oneself if he is simply seeking to heighten interest in the fight and thereby increase the PPV orders.
However, Mayweather seemed serious when he pushed his face into Ortiz?s and started what one can only surmise was a stream of invective after the fighters had weighed in this afternoon. If it was an act, it was a good one. Mayweather clearly seemed to be attempting to intimidate Ortiz; a Mayweather hanger-on waved a white handkerchief to remind Ortiz of the way the younger man surrendered against Marcos Maidana.
This is a fascinating fight. Even though Mayweather is a massive betting favourite, one has to give Ortiz a chance. Ortiz, 24, is a big, strong, young southpaw who hits heavily, and he can move quickly in any direction: forward, back, to the side. He is the naturally bigger man and will probably outweigh Mayweather significantly on fight night. Ortiz has the physical and fistic ingredients to make this a very tough night for Mayweather.
It seems strange that Mayweather ? a boxing superstar ? is the challenger. Mayweather, 34, is considered by some to be an all-time great and I can certainly envisage him beating some of the great champions of the past in the 130-to-147-pound weight range. The big question about Mayweather is whether age and inactivity ? this will be only his third bout in almost four years ? will catch up with him on Saturday. However, Mayweather stays in tiptop physical condition year-round, and he employs bigger, world-class sparmates. For Saturday?s fight, Mayweather has been boxing with southpaw junior middleweights Sechew Powell and Deandre Latimore and middleweight Kassim Ouma. He looks as good physically as he has ever done, and the top-level sparring ensures a high level of sharpness.
Ortiz is getting this fight on the strength of his crowd-pleasing win over Andre Berto, when each man was down twice. Ortiz?s gritty performance indicated that it was probably just an aberration when he retired himself from the fight with Maidana. Yet while I give Ortiz a chance, I believe he is going to have problems with Mayweather?s jab and straight right hand. It was only two fights ago when Ortiz was getting hit by Lamont Peterson?s right hand a bit too often for my liking, while a 38-year-old Nate Campbell bloodied Ortiz?s nose a little with a right hand. (Berto, of course, had Ortiz down twice with right hands, and the referee was watching very closely as Berto hammered Ortiz in the sixth; if ?Vicious? Victor hadn?t suddenly dropped the surging Berto with a big left hand, to stop Berto?s charge, the fight might have been moments from being stopped.)
As impressed as I was by Ortiz?s fortitude and firepower that night, he was helped enormously by getting off to a terrific start when he dropped and almost overwhelmed Berto in the opening round. Although Berto came back and had his good moments, especially when scoring the knockdowns, it was always an uphill struggle for him after his shockingly bad start ? I don?t think he expected Ortiz to come out and jump right on him like that.
Ortiz, indeed, is known for his fast starts ? 12 of his 22 KO wins have been inside three rounds, he would surely have won another bout on a first-round knockout if he hadn?t got disqualified for a punch on the break, he had Maidana down three times in the first two rounds and he dropped Peterson (twice) and Antonio Diaz in the third. So, an early onslaught from Ortiz is possible. If he can catch and hurt Mayweather before the older man can get settled down, then the prospect of an upset will loom larger ? if Ortiz is able to impose himself at the start of the fight he could be very tough to beat.
Mayweather, though, is an expert at making adjustments: Zab Judah got off to a flying start and Shane Mosley buckled Mayweather?s legs with a big right hand in the second round, yet by the middle rounds Mayweather was outclassing both men ? and Ortiz has stopped only one opponent after the sixth round.
If Ortiz fails to make a significant impression early, I think he faces a long, hard night, once Mayweather has ? if past form holds true ? figured him out and starts to time him for quick right hands through the middle of Ortiz?s southpaw stance.
It is true that Mayweather?s last two fights were against ageing warriors in Juan Manuel Marquez and Mosley, and on Saturday he faces a big, young, strong, dangerous and vibrant challenger, but Ortiz has never faced anyone like ?Money? Mayweather,
Mayweather has scored just one stoppage win in his last six bouts but he says that his opponents ? with the exception of Ricky Hatton ? went into survival mode when they realised they couldn?t win. He expects Ortiz to be more aggressive, and therefore more available to be hit by crisp punches.
I know am going against the tide, but I believe Mayweather has a good chance of stopping Ortiz. Mayweather to win by decision might seem the ?obvious? outcome, and it would be no surprise to see him box his way through the 12 rounds without taking too many chances, but I think Mayweather might be able to hit Ortiz hard enough, cleanly enough and often enough to discourage and confuse the less experienced man and bring the bout to the point where just a few more clean hits will have the referee intervening.
What I hope is that after all the KO talk we won?t have another 12-round glorified sparring match like Pacquiao-Mosley, Klitschko-Haye or Mayweather?s bouts with Marquez and Mosley ? but I have hopes that will be an an exciting fight and that when it?s over the fans will feel they have had value for money.
Visit fightwriter.com Subscribers? previews include: Smith vs Selby; Morales vs Cano; Vargas vs Lopez; Alvarez vs Gomez; Fury vs Firtha.
