This Saturday action hits the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, when Brooklyn native, Zab Judah (41-6,28ko?s) meets the United Kingdom?s Amir Kahn (25-1,17ko). These two champions each put titles on the line in a light welterweight showdown, Kahn?s WBA Super World Light Welterweight crown and Judah?s IBF World title.
We often talk about crossroad fights and this is one for both these fighters, this bout is a crossroad to bigger and better purses in the future for each. In the event that Kahn loses this bout he could come back quicker to the top money, but Judah?s road may be tougher as time and age are becoming a factor.
Judah is quick and accurate with his punches but even with the much slower Mabuza, Zab demonstrated that he can be hit, his tendency to duck with his face looking at the canvas can spell disaster for the New Yorker as Khan has a quick, punishing left hand body shot as demonstrated in the Maidana bout where in the first round, time saved Marcos, after suffering the knockdown.
By the seventh round Judah figured out the switching Mabuza and when Kaizer switched and led with the right once too often Judah countered with a left to stop Mabuza. Make no mistake Zab still retains enough speed and power to stop anyone with that left.
When figuring speed advantage Kahn is quicker than given credit for but Judah holds the advantage
Hand Speed: Zab Judah A , Amir Kahn B+
The lead right is a tool that could be used by Kahn to some effectiveness but its selection will have to be cautious and infrequent.
Khan will have to be careful about getting baited into traps set by Judah and not get suckered into feeling he is the aggressor when actually it is Zab allowing Khan to come forward and setting Amir up for counters.
Judah dislikes being smothered in tight where his footwork and defensive style is cut short and less effective.
I disagree with Alex Ariza, Khan?s strength and conditioning coach that Khan has fought people as skilled in the ring as Zab Judah, though he has fought people with singular characteristics of Judah, Malignaggi has the boxing ability but not the power of Zab, Maidana has the power but not the ring skills and defensive quickness, and McCloskey displayed a half speed head movement that Judah displays with much slower hand speed or reaction time. McCloskey also didn?t have the footwork of Judah to create the needed angles to counter Kahn effectively.
Judah has both better upper body defensive ability and increased footwork skills than the younger UK champion whether he uses these skills and takes control of the fight rather than fall into a defend and return style is another matter, often when Judah does this he allows openings to occur and gets hit, and Kahn can hit hard. If9 Judah allows Kahn to be the ring general in this bout instead of taking control of half the round then it could come down to the judge?s ruling, which as we have all seen can be anything, at times not even based on what happens in the ring.
Kahn can tighten up his defense if he desires as demonstrated in his sparring with Pacquiao but the ebb and flow of a sparring session is a world away from actual combat, old habits die hard they say, so I don?t expect too much of a dramatic change which means edge to Zab
Defense: Judah A- Kahn B+
Kahn has shown power against lower level opposition and flashes of it as the competition increased, his time spent with Roach has been a picture perfect classroom setting and Kahn has shown improvement in many areas and sitting down on his punches is one of these, do not discount Khan?s time with Roach and his conditioning coach, his power is developing more.
Judah has displayed the ability to turn a fight around on one punch throughout his career and has pop in both hands.
This category in my opinion is a wash though many could give the edge to Judah if you?re strictly going by the numbers based on quality of opposition. Both have recently been the beneficiaries of well-matched opponents that gave both fighters the advantage.
Power: Judah A Kahn A
What struck me during the McCloskey bout was intensity that Khan focused on Roach and listened to his instructions, often looking to him. It seems that the two have stuck a cord similar to the one that Pacquiao and Roach have formed. You can see the influence that Roach has had in watching the sparring sessions between these two fighters. If Kahn can bring that same defensive intensity to the Judah fight that he shows in the Pacquiao sparring sessions then Judah is in for a surprise. Unfortunately Kahn has displayed a habit of allowing his offense to become his defense , often leaving himself widely exposed while he focuses on hitting his opponent, with Judah?s ability to slip and take advantage of openings for his left hand, I think Kahn can be stopped unless this flaw has been reduced dramatically.
While Pernell Whitaker is a good trainer and great champion, but I wonder if these two have formed the same type of bond when things begin to go south with the game plan, if Zab has the same confidence in Pernell, and after so long a time training with his father.
Training and Corner man: Khan
This bout has the making of a fight of the year candidate based on styles if both these men come in meaning business, more so if Judah has rededicated his life to the sport and refrained from destructive behavior.
Both these fighters have the ability to make this fight a short event , if you are given to experience , guile, and pop then Judah is your man , if you are inclined to youth , power, and aggressiveness than you may be a Kahn fan.
Breaking down this fight is close to the most difficult I have faced, as there are many outside influences that can become a factor in the predicting, including the word that Judah has changed most of the outside bad behaviors that could played a factor in his career or at least the press releases to that effect. Changes in the people that surrounded him at least will prevent further combative disruptions inside the ring.
I think the hunger, conditioning, and youth of Amir Kahn will win out the day.
It would be easy to get lured into believing that Judah has turned things around and will not fade in this bout as has been his habit, but I need more than sound bites to believe it is so.
It is so unlikely that this bout will come down to a decision that it will probably be just that, a unanimous decision in favor of Kahn. So that is my call.
Don?t take my word though, this fight could end anywhere inside of the 12 rounds for either fighter and has the formula to be something truly special for boxing.
