WBO welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao held a media day in Los Angeles earlier today ahead of his May bout with Shane Mosley, and as usual the event attracted both celebrities and the media in their droves, all eager for a glimpse at the man who most regard as the best fighter in the world today.
By all accounts Pacquiao didn’t disappoint, looking sharp and in excellent shape despite having been without trainer Freddie Roach over the last week or so, who was in England to corner fellow Wild Card fighter Amir Khan’s defense of his WBA light welterweight title last weekend against Paul McCloskey.
The overwhelmingly positive reports are also somewhat uncharacteristic of a Pacquiao camp however, which have tended to be chaotic and plagued by distractions in the past.
During Pacquiao’s last training camp prior to his bout with Antonio Margarito, there were reports of the congressman lacking focus and motivation, as well as rumors that he was knocked down in sparring.
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Both promoter Bob Arum and trainer Freddie Roach expressed concern for the lack of progress being made during the build up to the fight, although in the final weeks Pacquiao was able to catch up and eventually put a woeful beating on Margarito.
Perhaps then it is because of the all positive reports emanating from Pacquiao’s camp at the moment that the odds against Shane Mosley continue to lengthen.
Back in December shortly after the bout was confirmed by Top Rank boss Bob Arum, the odds for the bout were around -700 for Pacquiao (1/7 on, or a probability of 87.50%) and +400 for Mosley (4/1 against, or a probability of 20%).
Bearing in mind that the opening odds against Mosley were longer than usual anyway after his two last fights, a loss to Floyd Mayweather and a lackluster draw with Sergio Mora.
The odds today stand as low as -850 for Pacquiao (2/17 on, probability of 89.48%) and +650 for Mosley (13/2), meaning that bookmakers are giving the 39 year old just a 13% chance at victory.
Given that we are still a little way away from the fight, this shift is somewhat surprising, particularly given that Mosley has reported no problems during his training camp.
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Also in many ways Mosley stylistically at least could potentially be Pacquiao’s toughest assignment to date at welterweight, given that he has the kind of speed and one punch knockout power that many of Pacquiao’s recent opponents have lacked.
Pacquiao’s large and loyal fanbase can tend to make the odds shift in the days immediately before a fight, as thousands of bets are places on him to win compared to relatively few on his opponent.
This far out however the fact that Pacquiao is progressing well ahead of schedule appears to be the main reason for the shifting odds.
What the odds will be on the day of the fight is anyone’s guess, but barring any negative news coming from the Wild Card gym in the coming weeks, they look certain to continue to lengthen against Mosley, who most don’t believe has much more than a punchers chance.
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