Michael Katsidis?who conjures up images of smoke-filled arenas from the 1940s?returns to the ring tomorrow night against another stiff test when he faces talented southpaw Robert Guerrero for a pair of MUFON lightweight titles at the MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
After pushing Juan Manuel Marquez to the brink last year?dropping the veteran maestro with a crushing left hook in the second round?Katsidis succumbed to an accumulation of punishment and suffered a gory TKO loss. Before that, however, Katsidis played ?China Girl? with Kevin Mitchell in London, whacking out the undefeated Brit in three rounds. Now, because Katsidis is a real prizefighter?without a care in the world about venue, opponent, or title?he returns from his taxing loss to Marquez to face another solid opponent.
A relentless pressure fighter who looks to break down his opponent as brutally as possible, Katsidis, 30, has two major issues going into his bout with Guerrero. First, he is prone to busting up and Guerrero is a sharp enough puncher to bring gashes, welts, and bruises to the fore. (A cut suffered in training cannot possibly be good news for Katsidis or his boosters.) Second, Katsidis throws a relatively weak straight right and an underdeveloped right hand against a southpaw is a terrible handicap. Unless Katsidis, 27-3 (22), has improved his right, Guerrero, 28, will have few worries when both fighters are at a distance.
With an edge in speed and skill, Guerrero, 28-1-1 with 2 no-decisions and 18 KOs, will likely alternate between counterpunching and leading when Katsidis takes the rare step back. Guerrero has been riding the Golden boy merry-go-round for so long?over two years now?that you can almost hear the calliope music surrounding him. Fights against no-hopers like Edel Ruiz, Roberto David Arrieta, and Efren Hinojosa have been interspersed with strange matchups against unknown Indonesian Daud Yordan, South African Malcolm Klassen, fringe prospect Vicente Escobedo, and completely shot Joel Casamayor, whom Guerrero allowed to last the distance in a monotonous waltz last July. Golden Boy rarely moves its fighters in any way that makes any sense, which is why after four fights on HBO in two years, Guerrero still has no buzz surrounding him. And, to make matters worse, his bout with Katsidis?his biggest fight in years?will be the chief support for a mediocre pay-per-view that will be lucky to break 185,000 buys.
Guerrero, now a decade into his career, no longer resembles the nifty southpaw who obliterated Martin Honorio in 2007 and Jason Litzau in 2008 on Showtime. These days he takes a more measured?and inconsistent?approach to his craft, and often seems to decelerate as a fight proceeds. It is this last characteristic Katsidis will have to capitalize on in order to win. Katsidis has to hold out long enough for Guerrero to decelerate, and redouble his pressure tactics late.
If Katsidis, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia, can burrow in close and bullyrag Guerrero against the ropes, he might be able to wear Guerrero down enough to catch up to him in the 10th or 11th round. Outboxing Guerrero is simply out of the question for Katsidis, who tried to do just that against limited Juan Diaz and predictably failed. If Katsidis reaches from too far out, Guerrero will be there to counter right hooks and uppercuts. Outmuscled by Gamaliel Diaz in 2006 and Orlando Salido (who subsequently tested positive for steroids) in 2008, Guerrero may be susceptible to the kind of crowding attack Katsidis specializes in from bell to bell. Headbutts?and ensuing damage?might also be a factor, since Guerrero, Gilroy, California, has a history of knocking noggins with opponents.
?Foolhardy? is the best word to describe the man who swaps punches in close with Katsidis, whose left hook is everything his right hand is not?compact, accurate, and deadly. In the end, Guerrero is no fool and will look to box intelligently and hope to slow Katsidis down via cumulative damage. Boundless courage, tenacity, and energy make Katsidis one of the toughest assignments in boxing and tomorrow night will be no different. Most likely he will fall short in the attempt, but he will risk everything in the ring to win for as long as he possibly can. That should be long enough for all of us.
