TIGERBOXING ANALYZES THE BIG FIGHT BREAKING IT DOWN IN 12 CATEGORIES. MATTHEW SANDERSON STATES HIS CASE FOR ERIK MORALES. SHAWN KREST STATES HIS CASE FOR MANNY PACQUIAO.
The judges are Lyle Fitzsimmons of Atlantic City, Ian Palmer of Toronto and Tom Thompson of New Orleans.
ROUND 1:
SANDERSON:
Seeing as he?s facing a dangerous puncher, Erik will be sure to have covered all bases: in terms of defense, offence and the physical fitness to back him up. The plan is to use his range to outbox Pacquiao and hurt him from a distance, and you can bet he?ll stick to it. Morales have suffered weight problems in the past, even in his last fight at 130 pounds. But he?s trained three months for this one, has been able to take it off slowly, and looks lean and mean. If he can go 12 hard rounds against the likes of Barrera when dehydrated, he?ll be a real specimen on Saturday.
KREST:
Pacquiao left the Philippines three months ago to train at the Wild Card gym in Los Angeles. He originally though he was going to fight Juan Manuel Marquez on February 26. There were concerns over whether he would be fully prepared by then, but when negotiations fell through, he received an extra three weeks to work out. At a workout for the media in mid-February, he looked ready to go, dominating sparring partners Raymundo Beltran (16-2), Justin Juuko (39-8-1), and Jorge Diaz over ten rounds with no signs of fatigue. He?s also worked with Israel Vasquez (37-3). The fight is contracted for 130 pounds, the heaviest of Pacquiao?s career, so making weight shouldn?t be a problem. He?s said he expects to come in at about two pounds under. More importantly, while Morales is bouncing back from the most disappointing and damaging loss of his career, Pacquiao fought a tune-up fight against Fahsan (3-K Battery) Por Thawatchai in mid-December, cruising to a four-round TKO. Pac Man is ready.
ROUND 2
SANDERSON:
Father-son relationships in boxing are often frowned upon. The clich? is of loyal sons unwilling to dump fathers whose persistence got them to where they are, but who may lack the savvy to keep him at the higher level. But Morales senior has taken Erik to the top ? when as a 19 year old boy he outpointed slippery Hector Acero Sanchez to reach world class ? and kept him there, going 17-2 in major title fights and annexing world titles at 122, 126 and 130-pounds and earning a certain place in the Hall of Fame.
One of the problems with father-son teaming is that they?re often stubborn, sticking to what?s always worked, while at the same time failing to iron out serious faults. It is true that Erik has always been quite easy to hit, and little appears to have been done about it. But Morales has faced more top class opponents than any active fighter. He?s beaten every one of them. Jose Morales must be doing something right.
KREST:
Pacquiao has been known to show uneven work habits at times during his career. Freddie Roach has worked with Mike Tyson, the most uneven worker in the game. He knows all the excuses and takes no guff. Roach brags that the nine-week training camp is the longest of the Roach-Pacquiao era, and it?s given him the opportunity to do more work developing his right hand. Giving Roach extra time is a little like Patriots head coach Bill Belichick getting an extra week to prepare for the Super Bowl. A master knows what to do with the time.
ROUND 3
SANDERSON:
Morales fights best with his back to the wall, and he will certainly be pressured by the aggressive, no-nonsense Pacquiao. This, combined with the fact that he lost his last fight, will give Erik plenty of nervous energy that he can channel to his advantage. He will be sharp, because he cannot lose this fight. Although written off a bit in the wake of Pac Fever that has gripped America, his immense pride will help him through many a rough spot, as it has in the aforementioned 19 world title fights.
This tremendous experience includes wins over 12 world champions, including two Hall of Fame Mexicans (Barrera and Daniel Zaragoza), a classic three fight series with Barrera (winning one and losing two), and numerous fierce wars in Las Vegas. Erik Morales has been there before. Pacquiao, by contrast, has participated in “only” ten world title fights, a mere two of which were major fights: the resounding win over Barrera, and the lucky draw with Marquez, in which he was flat outboxed from rounds three through eleven. Edge Morales.
KREST:
Pacquiao has fought 34 times in the Philippines, where he?s as popular as Imelda Marcos in a shoe store. Events don?t come any bigger than a Pacquiao fight in Manila. He?s also come up big in his major U.S. fights, battering Emmanuel Lucero, Marco Antonio Barrera, and nearly stopping Juan Manuel Marquez in the first round. With an average Pacquiao fight lasting four and a half rounds, with six first round stoppages (twice as many as Morales in six fewer fights), and with 27 of his 30 knockouts coming within six rounds, clearly Pacquiao comes out ready to fight. If there?s any question about his mental preparation, he?s got the right man in his corner: Roach, who has been tasked with getting Iron Mike Tyson ready to rumble. He should have the mental edge over Morales, who may be looking back at the heartbreak of November 27 rather than the opponent in front of him.
ROUND 4
SANDERSON:
Morales drives his whole body into his long, swiping shots, and has been a cruel puncher all the way from 122-130-pounds. Erik tends not to stop elite fighters, unless they are either lacking in durability (Junior Jones), smaller men moving up (Jose Luis Bueno), or shopworn (Espadas II). But he has shaken granite jawed Wayne McCullough (admittedly a blown up bantamweight), and hurt Barrera numerous times. In addition, he dropped natural 130-pounders Jesus Chavez (twice) and Carlos Hernandez (almost by accident).
To swing things further in Erik?s favour, Pacquiao couldn?t finish the suspect chinned Marquez off when he had him seriously hurt, at feather. How will he stop Morales at super featherweight?
KREST:
Thirty of Manny?s 39 wins have been knockouts, many of them of highlight film quality. Morales has said that Pacquiao is probably the strongest fighter he?s ever faced and has lobbied for fluffier gloves to try to neutralize Pacquiao?s advantage. Manny has strength in both hands and is one of the hardest hitting southpaws around. He won the WBC flyweight title on a one-punch knockout while trailing on the scorecard. The only Pacquiao fight that has gone the distance this millennium was the Marquez bout, which could easily have been stopped in the first. A big concern is whether Pacquiao, who debuted as a straw weight, will be able to bring his power with him up to 130. Ask Barrera and Marquez if his power has come up with him so far.
ROUND 5
SANDERSON:
Although ?El Terrible? prefers to fight a steady pace, he is able to come up with very quick little cameos that can surprise opponents, especially on the counter. When he puts punches together, they rain down on his foes with excellent speed, and can be very difficult to cope with. In addition, he has beaten some very quick opponents, such as Acero Sanchez and Junior Jones.
KREST:
Hand speed is Pacquiao?s trademark. He finished fourth in the category in World Boxing Magazine?s Best in Boxing poll. He?s two years? younger and has sustained far less ring damage than Morales. Age aside, he?s simply faster. Look at their common opponent: Pacquiao landed 30 or more punches in six of their eleven rounds, according to Compu-box. Morales landed that many in just five of the 36 rounds they fought in their trilogy. Pacquiao landed an average of 28 of 76 punches per round against Barrera. Morales landed just 21 of 63.
ROUND 6
SANDERSON:
Erik?s footwork is functional at best, and he often seems to be shuffling along. He also backs off in straight lines too much. But he can use subtle footwork on occasion, as when he faced an in shape Paulie Ayala. Fighting a southpaw, Erik frequently stepped over to his right in order to charge up and then let loose his choice punch, which he often doubled up on. This will serve him well versus southpaw Pacquiao, should Erik beat him to the punch. He can also circle effectively, and sidestep out of trouble, as he did just before dropping Hernandez.
Even if he usually does this in spurts, expect an animated and livelier Erik Morales, who will use his feet (and fast hands) to keep Pacquiao from getting inside.
KREST:
Roach has done a lot of work with Pacquiao in this area and Team Pac Man thinks they have a distinct advantage over Morales. If the fight ends early, watch the replay and see Manny slide one step to the right just before throwing the deciding blow. It?s something they?ve been working on in camp. The Pacquiao camp was overjoyed when Morales replaced Marquez as Manny?s opponent. Roach says that Morales is ?more hittable and stays in front of you.?
ROUND 7
SANDERSON:
Here?s where Morales rocks. He?s been ten rounds or more an impressive sixteen times, compared with Pacquiao?s measly six. In addition, Manny has never won a 12-rounder, while Morales has won 10. If Manny has been able to blow lesser opponents out very early, Erik knows that he has superb stamina to fall back upon in the big league. Even during fights in which he has been weight drained, Erik has been able to participate in very tough bouts. If he goes through quiet patches now and again (i.e. versus Chi, and Espadas I), he can also raise his game when he has to.
One of Erik?s greatest strengths is to punch through difficulty whether it be in the early or late rounds, if he is fresh or tired, and he finished particularly strong against Barrera III (almost securing a draw), and Zaragoza, who he stopped late. Even if Morales disliked the pace that perpetual punching McCullough forced, he was able to rally back and put his opponent in place consistently.
KREST:
Pacquiao hasn?t fought twelve rounds in awhile, because he hasn?t had to. That doesn?t mean he can?t. Morales fought twelve rounds three times in 2004. At some point, all that work and all the beatings catch up to a fighter. Pacquiao tired during the Marquez bout, but still did enough to win if all three judges knew how to count to three (the number of knockouts in round one). He was also fighting on an injured ankle in that bout, so it?s not a fair gauge of stamina. Rest influences a fighter?s stamina, and Morales will be fighting just 112 days after his war with Barrera. Pacquiao had a tune-up and a super-sized training camp and will be ready to go twelve.
ROUND 8
SANDERSON:
Again, Erik is the man. One of the best blood-and-guts warriors of the last ten years, Erik proved his worth in symbolic form, winning his first world title from established hard man Daniel Zaragoza. Only 23, Erik seemed to fall behind in a very tough bout, but rallied to stop the gritty southpaw with a well-placed body shot. Also, ?El Terrible? is one of the finest at any weight to rally back after taking hard shots, and he usually follows bad rounds with a good one, as with McCullough, Jones, and round 12 of the last Barrera fight.
In particular, it seems that Morales needs adversity to get the best out of him. In the Jesus Chavez fight, Erik wobbled his man after getting stung in the opening round, and dropped him twice in the second after taking more flak. When Chavez hurt his shoulder, preventing him from throwing the right, Morales was unable to hurt him again. Erik may be hoping that Manny brings it on.
In addition, Manny is an on top fighter: he only does well when he?s dishing it out. When the tables are turned, he gets discouraged, as when Marquez dominated him for three quarters of their fight.
KREST:
The Barrera win was so lopsided that few remember that:
A. Pacquiao was an underdog going into the fight;
B. Pacquiao was knocked down in the first round.
It?s not the first time that Manny has rebounded from adversity to come up strong. On at least two other occasions?against Nedal Hussein and Serikzhan Yeshmangbetov?he recovered from an early knockdown to knock out his opponent. He was losing against flyweight champion Chatchai Sasakul, fighting in Sasakul?s hometown, before he landed an eighth round hook to win. He also suffered low blows and intentional head butts that opened a cut against Agapito Sanchez, but kept his cool.
Pacquiao has been known to let his sparring partners land a dozen or more free shots to his midsection before he begins working on counters, so he is prepared to take whatever Morales can dish out.
ROUND 9
SANDERSON:
If there?s one area that Erik has always needed to improve on, it?s defense. He often holds his hands low, backs up in a straight line, and his guard can be leaky. He can, however, pull off sweet moves, but only seems to do so in spurts. Morales subscribes to the theory that a good offence is the best defense. Indeed, his attacks can be so overwhelming at times that opponents of the caliber of Barrera and Paulie Ayala have had to back up and abandon offence when Erik puts the burners on.
KREST:
This is a round that both fighters might take off. Morales and Pacquiao both use a good offense and ability to absorb punishment as their primary defense.
Pacquiao’s ?good offense? is better, and while he?s is no Floyd Mayweather, he seems to play better defense than Morales. Look at the Barrera Compu-box numbers again. In their three fights, Morales allowed Barrera to land nearly half (47 percent) of his power shots. Pacquiao held him to just 39 percent. On overall punches, Morales allowed Barrera a connect percentage of 43, Pacquiao just 31 percent.
This category really shouldn?t be scored as Morales? defense against Pacquiao?s (though Manny has an advantage there as well). The story of the fight will be whether Morales? defense is better than Pacquiao’s power and hand speed. If it?s not, it will be a short night.
ROUND 10
SANDERSON:
Erik has a solid grounding in the basics of boxing. That, combined with his innate ferocity allows him to adjust to opponents of varying styles. As an inexperienced 19 year old, he was pitched in with crafty ex champion Hector Acero Sanchez. Although Sanchez frustrated him early, Erik made adjustments. He used footwork to lure his elusive opponent in, and countered his man?s jab with thrashing right hands. Against a man with a bob-and-weave defense, Erik wisely used the uppercut, too, and won on points.
In their second fight, Barrera tried to back off and counter punch from the outside, but Morales used his superior reach to control many rounds at a distance. When Barrera got frustrated and came forward, Morales picked him off with straighter punches. He did the better work throughout but lost a controversial decision. When he cannot find a tactical solution, Erik almost always finds a way. He can force his way to victory, as with Zaragoza and a handful of others.
As for Pacquiao, he went to sleep after knocking Marquez down three times and breaking his nose. Juan Manuel consistently outboxed him, and Manny couldn?t solve him at all.
KREST:
This is another category that Morales needs to win in order for the real fight to make it to the tenth round. Thus far, only Marquez has been able to dictate the pace of a fight against Pacquiao, and that was only after an absolutely brutal first round. Plus, Freddie Roach learned from the Marquez draw and won?t allow Pac Man to make the same mistakes twice. Pacquiao is a southpaw and has an advantage in footwork and hand speed. All of that should give him an edge in ring generalship. The only area that Morales has him beat is experience, and when that experience comes courtesy of epic twelve round wars, it?s an advantage you?d rather not have. Morales has fought three southpaws of note and done well against them, but the last of them was in 2002, which was 47 rounds ago. And Paulie Ayala, Kevin Kelley and Daniel Zaragoza didn?t have the same combination of power and speed that Pacquiao presents. The only way for Morales to control the pace against Manny is to avoid engaging him for the first few rounds, something that he has been unwilling to do in his career up to this point.
ROUND 11
SANDERSON:
If Morales doesn?t always keep busy, he does explode in exciting volleys. His jab is fairly regular, and if he pitty pats with shots now and again, it is to establish a rhythm and look for hard blows. Rather than staying on top of opponents, the slightly temperamental Morales always makes opponents pay after stinging him.
KREST:
I?m going to have to look over at the ref and ask him to stop the fight during this category. Pacquiao?s life story could be titled ?Effective Aggressiveness.? His bouts with Barrera and his first round with Marquez were the epitome of effective aggression. He simply steamrolls his opponents. If they survive, and if the judges have some trouble with math, the best an opponent can do is salvage a draw. Both fighters are aggressive; the key to this category is the first word. Simply throwing a lot of punches isn?t enough. The punches have to land and hurt. Look at the punch stats for Morales-Barrera at any level and you?ll see the story. For their eleventh round ?round of the year,? Morales threw 18 more punches but landed nine fewer. For their third fight, Morales threw 40 more punches but landed 60 fewer. For the trilogy, Morales threw three hundred more punches but landed 40 fewer. Morales showed aggression against Barrera and dropped two decisions to his more efficient enemy. A battered Barrera throwing in the towel against Pacquiao after getting floored twice?that?s the result of effective aggression.
ROUND 12
SANDERSON:
A solid rather than massively talented fighter, Erik lacks the natural rhythm and fluidity of many top-level performers. He often forces his punches out, but they land with venom. He has a fine repertoire of shots, and can fight effectively at range with the long jab and crashing right, but also tear opponents up inside with uppercuts. Morales can hurt or knock opponents down with just about any punch, and can work well to the body ? as was the case when he dropped Barrera in their second fight, although it was not acknowledged by the referee.
KREST:
This is the summation of the previous eleven rounds. Pacquiao has a clear advantage in power and hand speed, which will allow him to land cleaner, harder shots more often than Morales. Pacquiao has prepared for this fight, while Morales is rushing in to get rid of the ghost of Barrera. The expected slugfest between two ultra-aggressive fighters may come down to defense, controlling the pace, and footwork. Pacquiao has the advantage in all three. The fight will come down to whether or not Morales can withstand an early Pacquiao storm. The guess here is that he can?t. Manny and Freddie Roach learned from the one that got away in the Marquez fight. The pick here is Pacquiao in three.
*****
Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a unanimous decision. Judge Ian Palmer of Toronto scores the analysis 116-113; Judge Lyle Fitzsimmons of Atlantic City scores it 116-112; and Judge Tom Thompson of New Orleans sees it 116-114 for the winner by unanimous decision, Manny Pacquiao!
