A lot has been made of Juan Manuel Marquez?s impressive victory over Juan Diaz, to the extent that many observers have felt that Marquez is now entitled to a third fight against fierce rival Manny Pacquiao. Marquez himself has made no secret of his desire to face Pacquiao, and has repeatedly called Pacquiao out since their last bout in 2008. In his post-fight interview Marquez stated ?The trilogy with Pacquiao is what I want. Everybody wants to see it. It?s good for all fight fans, for the Mexicans, the Filipinos. Everyone wants to see it. That?s the most important fight for me now.?
Amir Khan meanwhile has seen his stock rise as a credible opponent in both the Lightweight and Light Welterweight divisions since he decided to move to the States to train with Freddy Roach and join Golden Boy Promotions. A fairly dominant display against Paulie Malignaggi in March certainly helped, and many commentators have since suggested that he could face Michael Katsidis at Lightweight, or Timothy Bradley or Devon Alexander at Light Welterweight. Khan himself meanwhile has recently shown a desire to face Marquez prior to his fight against Diaz. Khan was in attendance for the fight, and afterwards told The Guardian ?M?rquez looked strong and sharp. I still want to fight him. He?s a legend. I know people think I?m stupid to fight someone with so much experience, but I want tough fights against big names.?
A fight between the two is a risky prospect for both boxers but, for a number of reasons, it makes perfect sense and should be a big Pay-Per-View draw.
Other potential opponents for both fighters are either now unavailable or won?t be as attractive commercially. Katsidis for instance is an exciting opponent and would be a tough prospect for both Khan and Marquez to overcome at Lightweight. Apart from his skills and warrior mentality however, there is little that Katsidis brings to the table. He does not hold any world titles but is currently the mandatory challenger for Marquez?s WBO Lightweight title, who faces being stripped of the belt if he chooses not to face Katsidis. Khan meanwhile gains tangibly little from a fight against Katsidis other than a much greater amount of credibility. Potentially, if Marquez does decide to vacate the belt and move up to Light Welterweight to challenge Khan for his world title, Katsidis could instead face current British and European Lightweight champion John Murray for the vacated title. As for Devon Alexander and Timothy Bradley, it seems increasingly likely after Alexander?s lacklustre performance against Andriy Kotelnik that they will face each other even though it has not been confirmed yet. This fight also makes sense; both fighters are not ?big names? outside of America and a prospective fight against Khan would attract comparatively little interest outside of the States. A fight between the two however would attract considerable attention in America especially as both fighters are undefeated, they are domestic rivals and possess world titles. The winner could go on to face the winner of a potential Khan-Marquez bout at Light Welterweight in what would undoubtedly be close to a super-fight. Finally Pacquiao will square off against Antonio Margarito on November 13th for a vacant Light Middleweight title, thereby denying Marquez a shot at Pacquiao any time soon.
If you take the aforementioned fighters out of the equation the only fight that makes sense is Marquez-Khan. To date, British commentators have focused on the benefits for Khan in facing Marquez, but the prospective fight would benefit Marquez too. It may disappoint Marquez that his ?unfinished business? with Pacquiao will for the moment remain exactly that. However, the sensible option would be for him to face Khan first (assuming he wins) before taking on Pacquiao at a higher weight class. The last time Marquez jumped up in weight class from Lightweight to Welterweight, he faced Floyd Mayweather and was utterly outclassed. At 37 years old, it would be sensible for Marquez to take the incremental option of stepping up to one weight class first, and then another. That way he may feel more comfortable at a higher weight class and could retain his rhythm and counter-punching speed, rather than looking like a slow, inflated Lightweight as he did against Mayweather. Furthermore, although this shouldn?t detract from Marquez?s performance against Diaz, the fact is Diaz had already (narrowly) lost to Marquez, looked very poor in two fights against Malignaggi, and looked fleshy and was much less competitive against Marquez than he was in their firts fight. Marquez, although looking impressive, did betray his age somewhat as his reactions were clearly not quite as sharp as they once were. Based on this, Marquez has little chance of ever facing Pacquaio despite the fact that it is a fight many fans would want to see; Pacquiao gains more tangible rewards (although far less credibility) in a fight at a higher weight class against Margarito. Furthermore if Mayweather ever does decide he is ready to face the No.1 Pound-for-Pound fighter, Pacquiao would gain far more from this fight in every respect whether he wins or loses. The only way Marquez can make himself every bit as credible an opponent for Pacquiao at Welterweight is by stepping up a weight division and facing a high calibre opponent.
This is precisely why Khan makes for such an ideal opponent. Khan has now established himself as a credible opponent in America, and has retained his UK PPV draw. He holds the WBA version of the Light Welterweight belt and by putting it on the line, it presents Marquez with the chance of claiming a fourth world title in a fourth weight class. Khan is a stablemate of Pacquiao and also trains with Freddie Roach. If Marquez is able to beat Khan, those who have claimed that Marquez actually won his two previous fights against Pacquiao could then also claim that Roach just doesn?t have an adequate game plan to overcome Marquez ? which would make a third fight against Pacquiao even more enticing (albeit riskier for Marquez at a higher weight class and irrespective of the fact that Khan and Pacquiao are very different fighters). Khan is also in great shape and is only 23 years old, he has terrific hand speed and decent power and may be able to negotiate for a hometown fight in the UK ? if a 37 year old Marquez can overcome such odds, it should truly allow him to become a highly credible alternative to Mayweather for Pacquiao.
Khan meanwhile also benefits a lot from this fight if he wins. Despite his great speed and ability to overwhelm opponents, his chin is still highly questionable as is his defence. Marquez is a noted counter-puncher and Khan will need to be at his very best to have a chance of winning the fight. Furthermore, Khan?s record to date lacks a world class opponent (sorry but a shot Marco Antonio Barrera and Malignaggi REALLY don?t count) and if he is able to overcome a still competitive Marquez, many doors will then be open to him; he be in line for a Light Welterweight unification clash against the winner of Alexander-Bradley and if he wins that he could credibly step up to the highly lucrative Welterweight division and face any number of big name opponents barring Mayweather and Pacquiao.
Despite the benefits the prospective bout is risky for both fighters. Marquez may gain a belt and enhance his chances of facing Pacquiao, but if he loses even by a close decision victory loss, he will have gained nothing other than respect. He would no longer be a champion in any weight class and his chances of facing Pacquiao would diminish greatly. Khan meanwhile would lose his recently attained credibility in losing to a much older fighter who is stepping up a division and is arguably past his peak, particularly if the fight doesn?t go the distance. He would lose his belt, and his chances of facing Bradley or Alexander would be greatly mitigated, as would th prospects of Khan being able to step up to Welterweight.
So, there is a lot of risk involved in this potential fight. However, it?s a calculated risk that both boxers should take if they truly wish to achieve their stated aims of taking on, and being considered, the best. It will be a ?winner takes all? type of contest; for Khan however, even if he loses he is young enough to potentially rise again. Marquez is not and needs this fight if he wants to face Pacquiao or at the very least become Mexico?s first ever four-weight world champion. All that remains is for Golden Boy to do the sensible (albeit risky) thing and make the fight happen.
