START spreading the news, I?m leaving today? well, tomorrow actually. Yes at 3.30pm, tomorrow afternoon, BA have promised me that my flight will go to Newark airport as planned, although with a ?slightly reduced on-board service?. I therefore expect to cook my own meals and replace the in-flight movie with an improvised game of charades.
I will be staying in New York ? or, more accurately, Jersey City ? for five days, with the highlight coming towards the end when Miguel Cotto aims to become a three-weight ?world? champion at the expense of WBA light-middle title-holder Yuri Foreman. The general consensus appears to be that while Cotto may not walk it, the Puerto Rican will most likely get the job done. I think Foreman?s chances are being unfairly discounted although crucially not so much by the bookmakers. Cotto is the favourite but his Israeli opponent is best priced at 2-1 to win and 3-1 to do it on points ? hardly a rank outsider.
There are many pertinent questions that this fight should answer ? will Foreman, like fellow Brooklynite Paulie Malignaggi against Amir Khan recently, find himself the crowd villain in his own hometown against proven East Coast draw card Cotto? Was Yuri?s title-winning victory over Daniel Santos evidence of a star being born or more a result of the latter being weight-drained? Was Cotto?s showing against Manny Pacquiao that of a fighter in decline or simply an unavoidable defeat against one of the two finest fighters, pound-for-pound, in the world? Will Cotto, more solid at welterweight than 10st, be able to hold a shot from a genuine 11st-er? Will Emanuel Steward make much difference to a fighter in Cotto who has been a pro for nine years and 36 fights?
It?s undeniable that Santos appeared a shade of his usual self against Foreman but that could have been down to the Israeli?s performance more than problems making the 11st limit. Foreman is clearly an improving fighter who has beaten fringe contenders like Anthony Thompson, Saul Roman, Jesus Soto Karass and Andrey Tsurkan. There is also the chance the Brooklynite could grow with the title. With only eight inside-the-distance victories in 28 wins, Foreman may not be the biggest hitter but is a career light-middle taking on a former light-welter; Cotto will feel his shots. The champion also has a four-inch height advantage and it was his lofty stature and long arms which set alarm bells ringing in Freddie Roach?s head when a match between Yuri and his man Pacquiao was discussed.
Let?s look at Cotto. It?s always concerning when a fighter moves up in weight, giving up natural physical advantages, unless they have struggled to make their old limit for some time. Cotto is moving up first and foremost to make history and also because light-middle affords him a far better chance of winning another ?world? title in a marketable fight. Cotto took a pounding against Pacquiao but more worrying is the fact that three of his last four fights have been bruising. His tough win over Joshua Clottey and first defeat, that punishing stoppage loss against Antonio Margarito, sandwiched a routine victory against an overmatched and overawed Michael Jennings. Cotto has more miles on the clock than the average 29-year-old fighter. Miguel has long talked of retiring when he turns 30 in October. This could be his last hurrah and while that could inspire a tenacious effort it could also mean his mind is, to an extent, elsewhere. Steward will try to sharpen up small things ? get Cotto using his brain more, work on his speed and make better use of his excellent jab. Cotto is a warrior and will fight until the last, that is the only real certainty about this fight.
I?m not going to go out on a limb and predict the upset ? at least not in print where it can and will be held against me ? but I do not see this fight as the formality, the Cotto coronation, that many others do. Foreman has worked hard to get where he is and will not allow his ?world? title to slip away just when he has reached the pinnacle.
I?ll be reporting from New York while I?m away and perhaps after the press conference (Wednesday) or the weigh-in (Friday), I?ll be willing to offer a more definitive prediction. Defintely maybe. Until next time?
