For anyone who has been an ardent observer of the sweet science for any length of time, the cynic in you is what often becomes your guide when it comes to handicapping the outcome of certain big or marquee fights. Forget about who you think is the better or more skilled fighter. The overriding thought that echoes in the back of your head is, what outcome sets up the next big fight best.
On June 5th WBA junior middleweight title holder Yuri Foreman 28-0 (8) will defend his title against former junior welterweight and welterweight title holder Miguel Cotto 34-2 (27) at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, NYC. Cotto hasn’t fought since November of last year when he was stopped by Manny Pacquiao in the last round – thus losing his WBO welterweight title. Foreman last fought in March when he won a unanimous decision over Daniel Santos (showing more tenacity than we’ve seen from him in previous fights) on the Pacquiao-Cotto under card. Both Cotto and Foreman are promoted by Bob Arum.
Cotto and Foreman are 29 years-old, but that’s about the only thing they have in common other than working for Arum. Cotto has done good by Arum since the beginning of their promoter-fighter relationship. Miguel has fought the best of the best in both divisions he’s campaigned in and has never put forth a half effort or been in a bad fight. Cotto is a real fighter and because of that there’s probably not much left in the tank being that he’s given everything he has every time out. Miguel has endured a lot of punishment over the last 22-months in three (Margarito, Clottey and Pacquiao) of his four fights during that time. His skin busts up easy now and it’s hard to picture it holding up over the course of a long fight. Remember, Miguel is not hard to find whether he’s moving back and looking to counter or pressing the fight and forcing the action. And in reality Miguel hasn’t really forced the action when he’s been in with the class of the welterweight division, starting with his fight against Shane Mosley in late 2007.
Yuri Foreman may hold a title, but he hasn’t really faced much resistance since turning pro in 2002 because his opposition has been so-so at best. Cotto is the biggest name fighter Yuri will have faced and he’s facing him at the right time and at a higher weight than Cotto has ever fought at. Foreman is also four inches taller than Cotto and has a much greater reach. He’s also the fighter that represents the future and if he wins the fight he’ll be in the sweepstakes for at least one mega fight later this year, most likely against Manny Pacquiao. That’s right, if Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather can’t agree on the terms of a fight between them, Foreman would be the perfect opponent for Manny to face in November and attempt to win a title in a record extending eighth weight division for him.
I see Foreman as being a kind of “years of faithful service” award for Cotto from Arum. Foreman isn’t much of a puncher and if he beats Miguel, it’s doubtful that he’ll hurt him, if at all. If Cotto wins there are plenty of fights that Arum can use him for and fatten his bank account even more, something that I doubt any boxing fan would begrudge him.
So forget about who you or anyone else thinks is the better fighter between Cotto and Foreman. The reality is Cotto and Pacquiao wouldn’t be a big fight if they met in a rematch. As of this writing Pacquiao-Mayweather has so many hurdles to clear before it’s made, and everyone knows Manny is going to fight this coming November. If Pacquiao can’t secure a super-fight with Floyd, he has even more options than Mayweather does. And facing Foreman for that eighth title is probably looking better and better if Mayweather holds true to form and wants to dictate the terms of the fight. The game plan looks like it calls for Foreman to remain undefeated, mostly for Pacquiao as a fallback option.
Breaking down the X’s & O’s of Foreman-Cotto is somewhat compelling. But the cynic in me won’t allow for me to get that far into it, because it looks as if Cotto is getting a nice going away present, allowing Foreman to be the front-runner to be Pacquiao’s next opponent and affording him the opportunity to make history again by winning a title in an eighth different weight division.
Both fighters will give it their all, but the business of boxing is best served by Foreman winning a decision. That must be taken into account when determining the winner of this fight.
