The big fight is almost here, and after much deliberation, I’m ready to make my prediction.
I’ve been back and forth on this issue for so long, but I think I’m finally ready for a prediction on the big May 1rst Mayweather/Mosley showdown. I’ll get to that at the end of the column. First, let me just state that I’m extremely excited for this fight. There’s no doubt in my mind that it’s the second biggest bout that can be made in boxing. This fight has been over 10 years in the making, since Floyd was a relatively “unknown” 130 pounder looking for a big money opportunity. At that time, Mosley looked like the second coming of Sugar Ray Robinson, and was moving up to 147 from 135 to chase after the Oscar De La Hoya “cash cow”. Ironically, after Shane’s star has dimmed in the past 5 years, and Floyd’s become the biggest star in the sport, Shane has been the one begging for a match-up in the ring.
Now, they’re finally going to get it on in a promotion called who are you picking? I’m ready to make that pick, but first let’s take a look at each fighter.
Why I should pick Mosley
Mosley is the biggest challenge Floyd has taken on since he fought Oscar back in 2007. Oscar was the roughest struggle of Floyd’s career, just ahead of the first Castillo fight back in 2002. Oscar was off for a year, and had lost a great deal of speed and pop, but Floyd was still outworked in several rounds. Floyd also had a great deal of problems with De La Hoya’s jab, on the rare instances that Oscar used it. Shane, even at age 38, has a better jab, has more speed, and more power than the 2007 version of De La Hoya.
Floyd has carefully cherry-picked his opponents since his move up to welterweight, and has avoided names like Williams, Margarito, Cotto, Collazo, Clottey and Mosley. Shane fought Cotto, and nearly beat him. He beat Collazo before that, and destroyed Margarito last January. Shane is battle-tested and experienced. There is nothing Floyd can show him, that he won’t be ready for.
Shane also takes a really good shot. Only Vernon Forrest really hurt him, and a head-butt started that near debacle. The hard-punching Forrest landed hard shots on Shane for a total of 24 rounds. Shane has also taken the prime blows from people like Wright(a much bigger man), De La Hoya, Cotto, Mayorga, and Margarito. Floyd doesn’t hit as hard as any of those guys-not even close. What happens if he can’t get Shane to respect him, and Shane attacks him without any fear of what’s coming back in return?
Mosley has had problems with certain types of fighters in his career, and Floyd isn’t the type of fighter to make him worry. Shane doesn’t fight well against talented aggressors. I’ve watched the Cotto fight a lot recently, and I believe Cotto deserved a razor close decision in an underrated fight. Early and in the middle of the fight, Cotto kept a lot of pressure on Shane, and took advantage of Shane’s surprising inability to excel fighting going backwards. Shane also felt Cotto’s power and was bothered by his jab. Later in the fight however, as Shane became the aggressor and stalked Cotto, he had a great deal of success. Shane will stalk Floyd all night.
I know Margarito is an aggressor, but he was so dreadfully slow, and unskilled, that Mosley was able to tee-off on him. Mosley was also able to hurt Margarito early, and take away much of whatever little confidence he had going, after losing his “loaded” gloves prior to the fight. Skilled aggressors would still give Shane problems; somebody like Paul Williams or of course, Manny Pacquiao.
It’s not in Floyd’s nature to stalk or be aggressive. Unlike the great Sugar Ray Leonard, he hasn’t proven to display versatility in his fighting style. Even against slower, over matched opponents like Hatton or Marquez, Floyd is content to simply pot-shot and counter his way to victory. Shane can outwork Floyd and steal rounds; much like Zab Judah did against Floyd earlier in their fight. However, unlike Judah, Shane has the patience and mental toughness to keep it up into the middle and late rounds.
Winky Wright and Vernon Forrest were able to physically impose their will on Mosley. They were terrible match-ups for him, and he never should have sought rematches against them. Both were able to keep Mosley at the end of long jabs, land straight power punches, and out-muscle the smaller, flailing, Mosley on the inside. Mayweather rarely works his jab, so that’s one thing Mosley won’t need to worry about. Mosley will also have the size, reach, and strength advantage against Floyd.
Surprisingly, the biggest performance “knock” I can put on Mosley in recent years, was his most exciting victory- the last second knockout over Ricardo Mayorga. Mayorga was able to out-box Shane and certainly keep him in defensive, grabby, mode for much of the fight. It was a lousy performance on Shane’s part, because Mayorga should have been put to sleep much earlier in the bout, with his lack of defense and inferior talent. However, there’s nothing from that fight Mayweather can take away, because Mayorga outweighed Shane by 10-15 pounds on fight night, and again, was aggressive.
Another reason I should take Mosley, is because Naazim Richardson is his trainer. Richardson is a major upgrade over Shane’s father, Jack, who often had you wondering what fight he was watching, when you heard his off-base advice in the corner. Richardson knows the fight game very well, will make sure Shane is aggressive, and will give him the right advice.
There is really nothing about Floyd’s style that Shane should be worried about, based on his record and experience. He’s the biggest, strongest, fastest, and mentally toughest opponent Floyd has ever faced in one package. Shane should win this fight via late stoppage or at worst, a 3-4 point unanimous decision victory.
Why I should pick Mayweather
Floyd likes to say that there’s no blueprint to beat him. He’s wrong. However, luckily for him, Mosley doesn’t have the blueprint in his arsenal. Oscar De La Hoya and prime Jose Luis Castillo gave us the best examples of how to beat Mayweather. To a lesser extent, so did Hatton for 3-4 rounds.
You just gotta maul Mayweather and beat him up. Mayweather doesn’t have a busy work-rate, and likes to take some rounds off on the ropes. He loves fighting while in reverse. Oscar and Jose just stepped on the gas when Floyd was laying back. They’d punch him to his body, all over his arms, shoulders, and elbows, and impress the judges with their intensity while Floyd was laying on the ropes or in the corner.
Shane doesn’t fight that way. Shane likes to fight in space, and at this stage in his career, he may not be able to match Floyd’s speed in the center of the ring. Shane has the strength to maul Floyd, but he hasn’t shown the tendency to fight that way. Shane is a subpar in-fighter, and doesn’t have the stamina anymore to constantly pound on a fighter while keeping him in the corner or on the ropes.
Speaking of Shane’s stamina, he really needs to lay off the clinching and holding or Floyd will embarrass him. Floyd is a cool customer in the ring and is always well-conditioned. He can really make Shane look his age, if he simply patiently holds his arms in the air, or to the side, and shrugs his shoulders while waiting for Shane to be separated from his body by the referee. The Margarito fight aside, Shane has spent a good 3-4 rounds a fight in recent years, mostly clinching, and frankly, it’s unappealing. Shane will make up for it a few minutes later by engaging in an exciting exchange, or throwing a flashy right hand, but still, Floyd can psychologically get the fans and judges on his side by exploiting this.
Shane is 38, and hasn’t fought in about 15 months. I still stand by my claim that he should have kept that January 30th date from the Berto cancellation, and fought a “tomato can” to knock off some rust. Shane, who has been in many wars, has not done himself any favors by taking on a boxing savant like Floyd, after such a long layoff. Floyd just fought in September, and looked as good as ever, after a 21 month layoff. The layoff, while he was still in a youthful prime, allowed him to rest his aching hands and shoulders, and he looked crisp as ever against Juan Manuel Marquez. Shane, at 38 and battle-worn, simply made a mistake by being so inactive this past year. None of that is Floyd’s fault, and this is the best fight available for him, but Shane has screwed his chances of taking advantage of Floyd’s slow starts. He’ll be so rusty with bad timing in the early rounds, and Floyd can make him pay.
Floyd will be able to build an early lead by throwing crisp pot-shots, and making Shane miss in embarrassing fashion. By the time Shane gets his motor running in the 7th or 8th round, he’ll likely start pressing for the knockout. But Floyd will use his smarts to counterpunch and move, move, move. When Floyd does go to the ropes, Shane won’t have the energy to do long sustained damage like Oscar and Castillo did. He’ll likely show a lot of heart, and maybe rock Floyd once or twice, but his rally down the stretch will be too little, too late. Floyd will win a unanimous decision by 3-4 points, mainly due to his early lead, and smarts down the stretch.
Who am I picking?
It’s going to be a majority draw.
No, I can’t punk out. Considering how neither fighter is the type that typically bothers the other, I’m really at a quandary on who should have the advantage. Do I go with Mayweather’s skill, youth and freshness or should I pick the guy with the power to close the show in any round and a package of skills Mayweather has never had to deal with?
I’m going with Mosley by late stoppage-10th round TKO. Since I can make the case for either guy, I’m going with what I WANT to see happen. Mosley can follow the Judah plan, but with more power, and more discipline to adjust when things aren’t going well. Floyd will win most of the early rounds, but Shane will land something in the middle of the fight to totally turn things around. Floyd will go completely defensive, and Shane will become emboldened to step on the gas. Nobody smells blood, or closes the show like Sugar Shane Mosley. Mosley also still has the speed to catch Mayweather just right, and he sure as hell has the power.
Lastly, if any one of you ever want to see Floyd versus Pacquiao, you better hope Mosley wins on May 1rst. The Mayweathers are still smearing Pacman with the performance-enhancing drug allegations, so they haven’t learned their lesson in how to get Manny in the ring; assuming they want him.
After Mosley wins on May 1rst, Mayweather won’t ask for his rematch right away. He’ll fight Paulie Malignaggi or Matthew Hatton in the fall to regain his confidence and make easy money. Mosley wants to cash in and just cement his legacy, so he’ll fight Pacquiao in the fall without any drug-testing garbage during negotiations. Floyd can sit back and watch Manny and Shane beat the living crap out of each other, and leave a piece of themselves in the ring-which is what would happen.
First of all, Floyd’s financial problems will have to resurface to further humble him. After Manny is victorious in a war against Mosley, Floyd will come “hat in hand” and ask for blood-tests just 30 days out, and once more after the fight. He’ll admit that this will be more than enough to prove neither fighter has a doping advantage, and he was just playing mind-games before. Manny will accept the offer, Floyd’s apology, and a 55-45 purse split in his favor. Then and only then, will Manny and Floyd ever fight each other. Considering all of those contingencies, it’s not likely boxing fans will get their dream match.
In the meanwhile, just sit back and watch Sugar Shane Mosley turn back the clock on May 1rst, and knock Pretty Boy Floyd’s ass all over the ring. You read it all here first.
