1 . WHO is the favorite in this fight? Floyd Mayweather Jr. You may not like him, but you can?t argue with hard, empirical data.
And that data reveals that he is undefeated.
Shane Mosley looked good in his last fight against banger Antonio Margarito, but prior to that he looked woefully ordinary against the clubbing Ricardo Mayorga. At age 38 , Mosley is in the twilight of his career while Floyd Jr. has not exhibited signs of slowing down.
2. Who fought better in his last fight? There?s an adage in boxing that you are only as good as your last fight. If we apply this to both, the scale looks pretty even. Floyd looked like he never took time off the game when he systematically dismantled Juan Manuel Marquez in 12 rounds despite a two year layoff.
Mosley was awesome in his last fight against Margarito. Many pundits thought Mosley was over the hill and that Margarito would walk through the ?Sugar? Man. But he proved them wrong by dominating and stopping Margarito.
3. Who has the faster hands? Mayweather. When he was younger, Mosley?s hand speed was phenomenal but Father Time and Mother Nature have conspired to erode some of that speed. Sure he looked fast against Margarito, but the gangly, plodding ?Tijuana Tornado? isn?t exactly a speed merchant.
4. Considering everything, does Mosley have what it takes to beat Mayweather? Mosley definitely has the tools to score an upset.He possesses the ring generalship not to fall into the traps that Floyd loves to set. I have always thought that the key to defeating Mayweather would be to overwhelm him with punches and try to bully him around the ring.
Jose Luis Castillo found some success when he repeatedly took the fight to Mayweather and tried to turn it into a phone booth brawl. I also thought Oscar dela Hoya did enough to narrowly edge Floyd during their fight, and he was quite effective when he tried to bully Floyd around because he was the bigger, stronger fighter.
Mosley has the strength to back Floyd up. And despite his age, he also possesses one of the best jabs in the business and this could be the key in thwarting Floyd?s counter-punching abilities.
The key here is effective aggression.
5. Who is the stronger fighter?
Mosley. He?s fought several times at the 154-lb. division and is the naturally bigger fighter.
6. Who has the better corner?
Nazim Richardzon seems to be coming into his own as a trainer.
He collaborated with Bernard Hopkins in coming up with the perfect foil to Kelly Pavilik. But Floyd and Uncle Roger have been a very successful tandem for quite some time now. I would have to call dead-even.
7. Who has the better chin? Mosley. He?s been in there against bigger, stronger fighters and took their shots well.
8.How is this fight going to play out? The first few stanzas will be the quintessential feel-out rounds as these cerebral fighters try to establish their comfort zones. Expect Mosley to become aggressive in the fourth and this will produce either of the following scenarios:
Mayweather will back up against the ropes looking to counter.
Mosley is playing right into his hands as he is able to land more effectively when Mosley opens up to attack.
Or Mosely starts finding a home for his jab which sets up his right hands. Most of the middle rounds are close, but Mosley shades them by being the aggressor.
In either case, the superior stamina of Floyd will come into play and he will perform nicely in rounds 9-11. Mosley starts to fade and this will cost him.
The last round (if it comes to that) will be a classic with Mosley getting a second wind, throwing punches in bunches.
Not to be outdone, Floyd will try to showboat his way to win the round.
It?s a close fight, but I think Floyd will preen and prance his way to a decision.
LAST ROUNDS. Are on my SAC buddies, Calvin Cordova and Kelvin Canizares. Cheers!
