While boxing doesn’t have a salary cap or similar financial limitations we all know that monetary negotiations are part of being a fan. Particularly when it comes to Floyd Mayweather, PPV sales are always as much a part of the fight as the action itself.
So while I’ll be giving my analysis of what I expect to happen in the ring, I’d like to talk a moment about Floyd’s favorite subject, money. Namely, how the PPV sales for Mayweather-Mosley could impact a potential bout.
The focus here will be on what happens in the event of a Mayweather victory. If Mosley wins there will either be a rematch or a quick agreement with team Pacquiao. Without the steroid issue and Mosley’s eagerness to get in the ring against any opposition he would likely be willing to accept the short side of a 60-40 split with Pacquiao and the fight could likely happen without a hitch.
If, however, Mayweather wins, Saturday’s PPV sales could offer another block for the fight we’re all waiting to see. Before negotiations broke down over blood testing procedure Mayweather and Pacquiao had agreed on an even purse split.
Since that time Manny fought and defeated Joshua Clottey. That PPV sold 700k units, an exceptional amount against a less than elite name.
On Saturday Floyd will be facing one of the biggest stars in the sport, Shane Mosley. Though Shane isn’t at Floyd or Manny’s level, he is universally respected among boxing fans and even has a solid reputation among general sports fans.
With Golden Boy’s terrific promotional team behind him, the 24/7 series, and a genuinely competitive fight expected, we could be looking at a huge number. Here are the results from both Pacquiao and Mayweather’s most recent fights.
Manny Pacquiao
Vs. De La Hoya: 1.25 million PPV Vs. Hatton: 850k PPV Vs. Cotto: 1.25 million PPV Vs. Clottey: 700k PPV
Floyd Mayweather: Vs. De La Hoya: 2.4 million PPV Vs. Hatton: 940k PPV Vs. Marquez: 1.05 million PPV
There is definitely an argument to be made that Floyd Mayweather is the bigger PPV star. There are mitigating factors to all of these numbers, but Floyd has a good argument to make.
If Floyd’s fight with Mosley does as well as it might, you can expect Floyd to make that argument, and to make it loud. Here’s my take.
1.2 million or less: This is about the minimum I can imagine this fight selling, and for the purposes of making a fight with Pacquiao come to fruition relatively easily I think this would be the best number. Mosley is roughly at the same level of general popularity as Miguel Cotto, so if Mayweather-Mosley does a close approximation of Pacquiao-Cotto I think the parameters for an even split will still remain.
1.4-1.5 million: While no one would argue that Joshua Clottey is a star, what happens is Mayweather-Mosley doubles Manny’s last fight? I don’t think Floyd will bite his tongue. They might be able to salvage a purse split, but it won’t be easy.
1.9 million or more: If the fight does these types of numbers there will be hell to pay. Floyd will argue, and probably rightfully so, that he should get the lion’s share. He will have done as much in this fight as in Manny’s last two combined. It is doubtful Manny’s pride will let him take the smaller piece of the purse, particularly with the steroid accusations still lingering. I always hope events sell well as it’s good for the sport, but this might be dangerous.
Which brings me to prediction time. How much is this fight actually going to sell?
I love the fight. I’ve been waiting for years to see it happen. I find it far more intriguing than, for instance, Mayweather-De La Hoya.
But while I think the fight is great, I’m keeping my projections a little modest. Unlike the more recent superfights this bout has fighters from the same background with a similar African American fanbase. Marquez and De La Hoya, for example, drew from the Hispanic community.
Still, the fight is just so great it has to sell. Golden Boy has done a great job with the promotion and Mayweather has been both obnoxious and entertaining in equal measure. People are looking forward to this one.
I’m expecting 1.35 million, just low enough to salvage an equal split without too much rancor. What’s your guess?
