THE latest smoke signals emanating from Camp Pacquiao – as in the Filipino’s team, I’m not referring to Manny as “camp” – indicate that the next potential victim along the superstar’s path of destruction will be one of Juan Manuel Marquez (who the WBO welterweight champion would meet for the third time), exciting WBC lightweight champion Edwin Valero or the disgraced Antonio Margarito. I am far from being the only one that would prefer to see Pacquiao meet the Floyd Mayweather-Shane Mosley winner or Andre Berto as a decent consolation prize, but the shortlist is what it is so let’s weigh up the three options available to the amazing Pacman.
Juan Manuel Marquez
This is the one I’d least like to see. Not only has Pacquiao already beaten Marquez – albeit contentiously following a draw in their first encounter – but the fact that the Mexican is Manny’s lightweight counterpart with the WBO shows another major problem with this potential contest. While Pacquiao has moved gradually through the weights and against Miguel Cotto and Joshua Clottey looked as if he is becoming accustomed to welter, Marquez is a lightweight, a light-welter at best. He scaled 10st 2lbs in his last fight against Mayweather and looked as if he was carrying some excess. Pacquiao is clearly strong at welter and crucially, has improved exponentially since the first two Marquez battles. Marquez is not getting any younger and has had more hard fights than the Filipino – the likes of Joel Casamayor and Juan Diaz got through with plenty of leather before Juan Manuel came back to triumph. He has been out of action since last September and is not about to start improving at this stage of his career. If the Pacquiao of 2008 could just about get past the Mexican at his super-feather peak, the improved, bigger, stronger Manny of 2010 can defeat an older, smaller Marquez far more easily. It would prove very little.
Edwin Valero
This match-up too has its faults but for me is the most exciting out of the three possibilities. Valero is of course unbeaten and has destroyed all 27 of his victims inside the distance. He can match or possibly surpass Pacquiao for handspeed, produces an impressive workrate and divides his dynamite power between both hands. They are the plus points. Unfortunately, Valero’s old motorcycle head injury that led to a failed MRI scan in 2004, plus his arrest last May for Driving Under the Influence (DUI) which saw his US visa revoked, mean he will find it hard to get licensed Stateside. Having said that, the one time the Venezuelan has appear in the States since his bike crash it was in Texas where Pacquiao recently routed Joshua Clottey and where the huge Cowboys Stadium is just waiting for the next instalment of the Pac Attack. But even if Valero manages to overcome these outside-of-the-ring problems to meet Manny in America – or, to avoid the licensing problems, the Philippines – there are several factors counting against him, most notably size. Southpaw Valero has been ‘elevated’ to WBC “champion in recess” at lightweight, having scaled the 9st 9lbs division limit just once and is a former WBA super-feather king. Even if he looks good beating Lamont Peterson at light-welter this summer the fact remains that Valero has never looked big at the lighter weight. Add to that a certain vulnerability, a characteristic Pacquiao seems to have partially eradicated in his own performances, and meeting Manny at welter could be just asking for trouble. At super-feather this would have been a huge attraction and a mouthwatering contest, at welter the odds are stacked firmly in Pacquiao’s favour.
Antonio Margarito
I have one significant issue with this fight being made and it has nothing whatsoever to do with Margarito’s 12-month ban for being caught with a “plaster-like substance” in his handwraps before he lost to Mosley in January 2009. Whether that ban was long enough is another matter entirely – it certainly was not, in my opinion – but I don’t like this fight because I believe it would be a mismatch in Pacquiao’s favour. Harsh words, considering the Mexican would be arguably the biggest, strongest welterweight Pacquiao has met thus far – when you consider the bigger Ocsar De La Hoya was significantly weight-weakened? Perhaps, but let’s look at how Mosley defeated Margarito, who returns against Carson Jones in Mexico on May 8. It wasn’t with strength or even power, but speed, guile, great footwork and intelligence. I could have just listed four of Pacquiao’s best qualities. He is fast of hand, has excellent foot speed, great timing and improved ring generalship. Margarito’s style was perfect for a Mosley who had looked all but shot against Ricardo Mayorga in 2008 and in the first Fernando Vargas fight in 2006. The Mexican applies persistent pressure and hits very hard but if – like Mosley and Miguel Cotto – an opponent is smart enough to draw him in and counter, and fit and agile enough to see it through for 12 rounds – Mosley was, Cotto was not – they can defeat “Tony” relatively comfortably. Margarito would be far more ambitious than Clottey but all that would mean is a greater chance of his being busted up, beaten up and stopped. All that aside, despite his protestations of innocence, does Margarito really deserve to come back from a ban for potentially seriously endangering an opponent to the biggest crowd and payday of his career? Of course he does not.
