Los Angeles – This early evening I stopped by Downey Billiards, in Downey, California, to ask a few of the sports fans lounging around and shooting pool about the Saturday night battle between Manny Pacquiao and Joshua Clottey.
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The most common response from the patrons was, “who is Joshua Clottey,” and “I am not planning on buying the pay per view.”
This tiny, non-scientific sample does not validate my prediction that Pacquiao and Clottey will garner less than 1,000,000 pay per view buys, but it does provide some ancillary evidence – at best.
[Read my thoughts from yesterday on the total number of pay per view buys I am expecting for Pacquiao vs. Clottey.]
Now some of you readers might wonder, “Why is Lois harping on the pay per view numbers for Joshua Clottey and Manny Pacquiao? Is it another back handed attempt to insult Pacquiao?”
Rest assured my boxing loving friends, this is no attack on Pacquiao – the best pound for pound boxer in the world today – but is merely a well educated look into future negotiations between Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Junior.
[Listen to a special post-fight radio show 30 minutes following Pacquiao’s battle with Clottey on March 13 at www.theboxingtruth.com. Phone lines will be open for fan interaction and comments.]
Remember, the fight we all really wanted to see? The Destroyer vs. Money? The fight which seemed so close to being signed just three months ago, a true fight for the ages.
While Pacquiao was preparing for his bout with Clottey at the Wild Card Gym in Hollywood, California, just a few miles away in Downtown, Golden Boy Promotions was busy arranging for a May 1 fight between Mayweather and Southern California product Shane Mosley.
Last week at a press conference for Mosley-Mayweather, Golden Boy shot caller Richard Schaefer predicted that the fight would clock in 3,000,000 pay per view buys.
In my estimation, Mr. Schaefer may be exaggerating by about 1,500,000 buys, but I do expect Mosley vs. Mayweather to out sell Pacquiao vs. Clottey. The combined star power of Mayweather and Mosley out do Pacquiao’s in a bout with a virtually unknown, but solid welterweight Clottey.
Don’t believe me, believe my small sample of fans at Downey Billiards, who all recognized, knew about, and were willing to purchase the Mosley – Mayweather event.
Let us project into the future.
It is mid-May and boxing fans are burning hot to see Manny Pacquiao vs. Floyd Mayweather. Pacquiao took a solid decision from Clottey in March and Floyd is coming off a hard earned, but clear decision against Mosley.
The pay per view numbers in my scenario have Pacquiao selling 800,000 against Clottey and Floyd bringing in 1,250,000 million with Mosley.
Back in early January, the contract stipulation that kept Mayweather and Pacquiao was the timing of an Olympic-style drug test requested by Mayweather. That one little sticking point, no pun intended, kept us all from seeing Mayweather – Pacquiao four days from today.
There were no arguments about a 50-50 purse split between both high-level stars, the only fly in the ointment was the test.
The second time around in my negotiation scenario, the drug testing will be an issue, but the purse split will also become an issue.
While a 50-50 split might have seemed fair back in December for Team Mayweather, it might not seem so logical if Mayweather out sells Pacquiao in pay per views following his bout with Mosley.
During the initial negotiations this winter, Pacquiao was coming off of a 1,250,000 buys in a bout with Miguel Cotto and Mayweather had recently sold slightly over 1,000,000 buys.
If Mayweather was willing to go 50-50 when he was on the short end of the drawing power measuring stick, what will his demands be when he sits on top of the pay per view sales hill?
A tough, knock ’em down, drag ’em negotiations.
Joshua Clottey, due to his lack of recognition, might become the man who sunk the Mayweather – Pacquiao fight from ever happening.
Check back in this space tomorrow for my thoughts on the likelihood of Pacquiao and Mayweather, EVER fighting.
