Does Ghanaian underdog Joshua Clottey stand a chance against Manny Pacquiao in their welterweight title fight Saturday in Dallas? Wishful thinkers will find some support in the numbers.
Data show that opponents who have given Mr. Pacquiao his toughest fights have been those best at avoiding his buzzsaw of punches. And Mr. Pacquiao has never fought anyone as good as Mr. Clottey at making guys miss. Over his past three fights—destroying Miguel Cotto, Ricky Hatton and Oscar De La Hoya—Mr. Pacquiao connected with 42.4% of his punches, according to ringside statistician CompuBox (the welterweight average is 33.2%). On the flipside, Erik Morales won a decision with him in 2005 by limiting Mr. Pacquiao’s connect rate to 24.3%. Juan Manuel Marquez held Mr. Pacquiao to a similar connect rate over their two close matches.
Now comes Mr. Clottey, who’s a defensive master. Over the nine fights of his CompuBox has tallied, he has held opponents to a stingy connect rate of 21.2%, while landing his own punches at a 37.7%. Against Antonio Margarito, a relentless puncher like Mr. Pacquiao, Mr. Clottey held his opponent to just 19% over the first four rounds. Mr. Clottey injured his hands in that fight and lost, but by the end he broke the record for most punches avoided (1,338).
A good gauge for Mr. Clottey’s chances in Cowboys Stadium will be available early: If the numbers show he’s making Mr. Pacquiao swing and miss, it might be a fight. Don Steinberg Swing and Miss
Manny Pacquiao’s success is linked to the connect rate of his punches WHEN PACQUIAO DOMINATES….. Opponent Pacquiao Result Connect Rate Hatton KO (Rd. 2) 57% Cotto TKO (12) 43% De La Hoya TKO (8) 38% WHEN PACQUIAO STRUGGLES….. Morales L, decision 24% Marquez Draw 23% Marquez W, split decision 25%
Source: CompuBox
