THERE are fights where I can?t stop myself from drooling that I have to put on a bib.
And there are fights where I shudder at the thought of the inevitable outcome that I have to peel myself away from the box to do something else than watch a mismatch.
Today, Gerry Pe?alosa takes on undefeated Puerto Rican powerhouse Juan Manuel Lopez for the latter?s WBO super bantamweight belt and I?m in a quandary on what to make of this fight. Lopez is undefeated with 22 foes out of 24 failing to last the distance.
“The Manny Pacquiao Blog”. Click here for stories and updates on the Filipino boxing champ.
BIAS. On paper, this fight is a dandy. The aging, cagy veteran taking on the young proud champion.
The counter-punching wizard fittingly matched against a punching machine.
The fearless against the fearsome. Defense against offense.
But on the other end of the equation, my bias consumes me and I fear for my compatriot.
Yes, of course, I also have my biases the same way most writers do. Homer Sayson was an unrepentant Laker fan. John Pages is partial to Federer (or so it seems).
But I try to tone it down when I am analyzing a big fight. I concentrate on breaking down the parameters and factors that will determine a bout?s probable outcome to provide my readers some tools in making their own intelligent choices. And in the end, I give my own prediction.
I don?t make my choices based on race or color. Sun.Star Cebu readers know that I picked Oscar dela Hoya to beat Manny Pacquiao because I thought the former would be too big and too strong.
Then on fight night, Oscar shows up smaller and lighter than Manny. There goes my prediction. That?s that. No big deal.
But in today?s case, I would have to digress and hope you indulge me if I do not provide you with the usual template.
You see, I have a confession to make. Gerry Pe?alosa is my favorite Filipino fighter but I think he will lose to Lopez.
So today, I will throw out my statistics, and my analysis out the window. Instead I will gaze beyond it towards the heavens, imploring upon the gods to smile kindly upon diminutive Gerry, and deem him worthy of a miracle.
For he will need one today.
OUTCOMES. That being said, here are some possibilities:
Outcome 1: Lopez comes out firing in the first round and catches Gerry hard. The latter?a notoriously slow starter, valiantly fights back and survives to hear the bell. But in the second stanza, ?Juanma? picks up where he left off and pummels Gerry from pillar to post. In the fourth, the referee mercifully rescues Gerry who is defeated but unbowed.
Outcome 2: Lopez starts out like a house on fire but Gerry wisely parries and snipes in a few counters. The fight takes on a repetitive pattern with Lopez initiating the exchanges and Gerry catching him at times. The former decides to shift tactics and call on his underrated boxing skills. He is then able to utilize fully his height and reach advantage to sharp-shoot from a distance and win a unanimous decision.
Outcome 3: Lopez uncharacteristically holds back his punches the first few rounds, as if trying to lure Gerry into making a mistake. But Gerry has seen it all and is wise to the younger man?s antics. The crowd starts booing the lackluster action which spurs the younger man into aggression. He starts throwing bombs and staggers Gerry along the ropes. Lopez gets careless and Gerry deftly sidesteps and catches the Puerto Rican with a wicked uppercut. For all his bravado, the bigger man?s chin is largely untested and he crumples down like he?s been shot. Gerry by TKO in 6.
You know which outcome I will be praying for.
THE LAST ROUND. It?s on Metrobank?s Raymond Tero, who celebrates his birthday today and on my idol Atty. Serge Rocamora who is in town with lovely wife Mel and cherub Luke. Cheers!
