This weekend?s boxing schedule only has one card that recommends itself inside of American borders, in terms of ramifications on world rankings, but luckily it is the one show that will be televised nationally. ESPN2’s Friday Night Fights is taking this week off, in favor of a NASCAR race, as is TV Azteca and HBO. There is a Pacquiao/Hatton 24/7 episode to quell some of our boxing withdrawal, and fans have the option of self-medicating if they are willing to spend money on an interesting PPV card emanating from the Philippines. That’s it in terms of what is available on American TV, but there are good fights in South Africa (which will not be televised) that are worthy of our Cheat Sheet treatment.
The only non-PPV event this weekend is the latest edition of Showtime’s excellent ShoBox series. This franchise continues to excel and impress, bringing us the best young talent from around the world. Now they are expanding their grip on the champions of tomorrow to European countries, importing young Turkish prospect Selcuk Aydin, based in Germany, whose reputation is that of a volatile kayo artist.
Headlining the card is Yuriorkis Gamboa, a Cuban expatriate who never fails to bring excitement in one way (his being knocked down) or the other (his opponent being knocked out). As is nearly always the case with ShoBox, the opposition for the prospect, Selcuk Aydin, is formidable, with hard-nosed Said Ouali providing a good test and difficult stylistic matchup.
APRIL 17th, FRIDAY
At Buffalo Bill’s Casino, Primm, NV (Showtime) Yuriorkis Gamboa (14-0) vs. Jose Rojas (25-6-1) (Showtime) Selcuk Aydin (17-0) vs. Said Ouali (25-2)
Selcuk Aydin: His nickname is ?Little Tyson?, and like Mike Tyson he must learn how to control his temper. Won multiple tourneys on the international level, has over 350 bouts to his credit, and was highly sought after by all major European promoters. Lost a chance to compete at a second Olympics by receiving a ban from all amateur competitions (reports range from one to five years), when he punched a referee after a bout at the European championships. Since turning pro the 25 year old has done nothing untoward and he has impressed ring observers with his skills. Fourteen of his seventeen wins have come via stoppage, but only one kayo has come past the third round. Aydin either gets opponents out early, or goes the distance. Going the distance does not seem to be a problem, as he dominated solid South African Lucky Lewele over twelve rounds. Former champion Graciano Rocchigiani was brought in to train Aydin, and commented about his pupil. ?Selcuk is an aggressive fighter who loves to come forward. The only difference between us is that he hits way harder than I ever did. He?s got enormous punch power.? To me, it appears that even when Aydin does not get a stoppage, he has the kind of thudding power that leaves opponents passive. I am eager to learn if a similarly aggressive Ouali will push back in the face of that power.
Said Ouali: The Moroccan born Ouali (who came to America by way of Belgium, and who speaks five languages) is not the first southpaw Aydin has faced, but he is the best and certainly the most offensive minded. Ouali has kayoed his last eight opponents, including Irving Garcia, a sparring partner to Cotto and De La Hoya, Sven Paris, and Xavier Tolliver. He has two losses, to Grover Wiley (where two points were deducted from him for hitting behind the head) by points and Kermit Cintron via stoppage early in his career. Since then, Ouali’s defense has improved markedly, and he has really matured over the last two years under the tutelage of trainer John David Jackson. Under the guidance of Jackson, Ouali’s guard is higher, but he remains a free swinger and comes in behind quick but wide punches. What I don’t like is that his last three fights have been against weak opposition, and that is no way to prepare for an Aydin that has upped his level of competition.
Verdict: As I noted earlier, Aydin either gets quick kayos or easy decision wins. This will be neither. Ouali might be a bit faster than Aydin, which should help him in the early rounds along with his aggression. As the rounds go on, the more educated and straighter flying fists of Aydin will tell, and he should win by seventh or eighth round kayo.
Yuriorkis Gamboa: Most boxing fans are aware of Gamboa’s story – a superbly talented Cuban amateur (2004 Olympic Gold medalist at flyweight, final record of 122-19-3) who escaped the country and has been fast tracked to a world title by everyone around him, which is not a bad thing, since Gamboa’s skills and physical abilities demand rapid acceleration against elite opposition. As well as the fans? attention. To look at Gamboa, physically and in style, he is reminiscent of Meldrick Taylor, but with more power and less fluidity in his combinations. The Taylor comparison is also apt because he gets wrapped up in exchanges that his speed and skills could avoid. Consequently, Gamboa has been put on the canvas four times, against three opponents, but rebounded each time to win his fight and never looked in danger of actually losing. Speed, power, reflexes, boxing skills – Gamboa has them all, but so far has failed to combine all four on a consistent basis. He seems like Zab Judah in this sense, always dangerous but never fully focused. To this point the competition has allowed him to get away with having just two of the four components in place. I fear it would not be enough against someone the caliber of Chris John.
Jose Rojas: It would be foolish to overlook someone who handed Celestino Caballero and Pastor Maurin their first losses, but at age 37 Jose Rojas will have to rely on experience instead of speed or strength. The Venezuelan southpaw?s most recent effort against an elite opponent came in a lopsided 12 round loss to Chris John. Truth is that John has been his only real opponent the last five years. He had a cut shortened technical draw with John 2004, and otherwise faced four men with a combined record of 23-43-6 (and 22 of those wins came from a 22-10-3 foe). Just as disturbingly, Rojas has only fought once a year the last three years, and probably peaked in 2003. How the WBA continues to rank him is beyond me…oh yeah, both are based in Venezuela. Rojas has lots of experience, and five years ago would have been considered a credible opponent. I could even see Rojas utilizing his experience against a less physically adept opponent, like Cristobal Cruz or Takahiro Aoh, and I recall Rojas having snappy power in his prime. Still, my mind strains to come up with a plausible scenario which would lead to a positive result against someone like Gamboa. It is too bad Showtime had to, in all likelihood, accept Rojas as an opponent (because of the WBA’s nepotism in installing a favorite son/countryman as their number one contender) over a more qualified contender. But I am willing to put up with it to get a look at Selcuk Aydin. Showtime probably felt the same way.
Verdict: One word, speed. It is the only advantage Gamboa needs. Combined with his power, I see this one ending before the sound of the bell for the third round, and that might be generous.
APRIL 18TH, SATURDAY
At The Araneta Coliseum, Manila, the Philippines (PPV) Nonito Donaire (20-1) vs. Raul Martinez (24-0) (The Ring Magazine #1 Flyweight vs. Unranked) (IBF Flyweight belt) (PPV) Ulises Solis (28-1-2) vs. Brian Viloria (24-2) (The Ring Magazine #1 Jr. Flyweight vs. Unranked) (IBF Jr. Flyweight belt)
Nonito Donaire: Despite Donaire’s knockout of Vic Darchinyan, one of the decade?s best, I am still not quite sold on him yet. Given two victories since then, over well qualified Moruti Mthalane and Luis Maldonado, my skepticism flies in the face of reality. Hard to explain, I know, just one of those feelings. At 26, Donaire is in his prime, and has a wealth of amateur experience to fall back upon as well. His all around boxing skills are multiplied by abundant handspeed, and at 5’6 Donaire has done well not to ignore body work. Of course, Donaire (who competed for a spot on the American Olympic team, losing to Brian Viloria) is living in the shadow of Manny Pacquiao at this time, and it is a wise career move to hold this fight in the Philippines. The only flaw I have seen with Donaire is that he gives up too much of the ring to weaker opponents, but that could just be his fighting preference. Donaire likes to move backwards and sideways to lure opponents into mistakes as they advance, which worked to perfection against Darchinyan and others to this point. Donaire could be more active (two fights in the last two years) but the youngster should not suffer too much ring rust after a six month layoff. This is his first fight back in the Philippines since 2002, so Donaire will want to put on a thrilling performance.
Raul Martinez: It is sink or swim time for Martinez. He is a two-time American flyweight champion in the amateurs with a 70-20-1 record, who has raced to a 24-0 start in just over four years under the promotional guidance of Top Rank (after splitting with Main Events). Martinez is the best prospect to come out of San Antonio since Robert Quiroga, and he exhibits a nice combination of handspeed and intelligent ring movement. He is boxer first and foremost, whose rapid combination punches befit his nickname of The Cobra. Martinez began his career with a string of kayos (a 55% kayo ratio is flattering), but his impressive stoppage of Victor Proad in his last fight was something of a mirage. His skills have kept him from being severely tested to this point of his career, even though he showed composure in climbing off the canvas in his fifth pro fight and in the first round of his fight against Ilido Julio. In that bout, Martinez displayed an aggressive streak by going for and getting a stoppage victory in the final round. He also exhibited poise in dealing with a flow of blood from a cut just below the hairline, and swelling around his right eye. Otherwise, Martinez has not been pushed hard, nor made to dig deep by opponents or circumstances. That will not be the case with Donaire, who is sure to make this the hardest fight of his career.
Verdict: Given the skillsets of both men, I cannot see this fight degenerating into a slug fest. Both can rely on smarts and solid jabs to get them out of trouble, and have the feet to avoid unnecessary contact. Donaire sports a two inch height advantage, but their reach is the same at 68′, and the Filipino uses his length to more effect. Knowing he will have to take the title, there is a chance Martinez rushes his offense and fails to box and throw compact punches. Donaire is very good at exploiting openings, and he gets off to fast starts. Donaire will get an early lead, then outbox an ever more frustrated Martinez, as the Texan opens himself up to more counters in search of a fight altering punch. Donaire by comfortable decision.
Ulises Solis: In spite of a 65% kayo ratio Solis is a boxer at heart, whose movement throws opponents into hesitation induced funks. Just when fighters think they have Solis lined up, he makes a pivot that throws their angle off and he fires a combination which lands flush. The champ has already repelled a solid list of challengers, and this fight marks the eighth defense of his title. Everything Solis does revolves around an excellent left jab, which should be considered one of the best in the business, and he has good power in both hands. The only negative with Solis has been a tendency to cut, and in his lone loss he was bullied by the physically stronger Nelson Dieppa. I don’t see another fighter doing that to a more experienced Solis now, but fear his left eye is one good punch or headbutt away from being sliced open. At 27, Solis is in his prime, both physically and mentally, and he has been an active champion, averaging three fights a year. Solis and Viloria enter the fight with virtually the same height and reach, so it comes down to who forces their style upon the other.
Brian Viloria: I desperately want Viloria to finally deliver on his potential, or be banished to big fight undercards as a top level gatekeeper. At 28, I fear the latter will be the case, but I continue to hold out hope. Following this boxer, whom I tabbed as a Val Baker trophy winner way back in the 2000 Olympics, has resulted in a series of disappointments, followed by performances that hinted at his having finally put everything together. Frustrating! There is no doubt Viloria has the physical talent, and I understand that at flyweight there are very few easy fights. Viloria has the power to knock guys out, or go the speed route and box around tougher chinned foes, which is what he relied upon as he moved up to flyweight, winning three of five bouts via the distance route. Worryingly, all five wins have come against mediocre boxers, or good boxers at the tail end of their careers like Cesar Lopez and Jose Bernal. Those are not the kind of bouts to prepare for someone of Solis’ caliber, but given Viloria’s experience and the surety of getting a title shot, it can be forgiven. Now Viloria is coming down in weight and taking on the second best jr. flyweight, behind Ivan Calderon, to make himself into the type of champion many had predicted him to be all along.
Verdict: I have been burned by Viloria too many times, and despite his activity, I do not like Viloria’s opponents or fighting weight over the last year. The other factor is Solis? excellent left hand, which should counteract Viloria’s advantage in speed and physicality. Viloria has flamed out against elite fighters, and I think Solis has the skills and enough power to push Viloria back into his big fight shell. Solis by unanimous decision.
At The NorthWest University Complex, Mafikeng, South Africa Cassius Baloyi (36-3-1) vs. Malcolm Klassen (23-4-2) (The Ring Magazine Unranked Jr. Lightweight vs. Unranked) (IBF Jr. Lightweight belt)
Cassius Baloyi: A solid boxer, who has better pop than a 47% kayo ratio suggests. The 34 year old veteran has seen every kind of style and punch thrown at him over a 15 year career, and has challenged the best his nation has to offer. He twice defeated well respected Lehonolo Ledwaba and a faded Manuel Medina, plus he sports wins over Mbulelo Botile and Steve Robinson. Baloyi’s hand speed is average, but his lanky physique gives him the advantage at a distance. Is difficult to derail once allowed to set the pace or control the center of the ring. Baloyi did have his limitations exposed when he moved up to lightweight, and he could not match Isaac Hlatshwayo’s strength on the inside, suffering a knockdown in the second round. Also lost to Phillip N’dou, where he could not cope with the speed of N’dou. His only other loss, to Gairy St.
Clair, seems to have been because of a lack of focus entering the fight and was avenged. Unless an opponent comes to the dance with at least one overwhelming physical advantage, Baloyi seems capable of defeating any opponent.
Malcolm Klassen: On paper, Klassen is one of the weakest title holders of recent vintage (held IBF jr. lightweight title for five months), and I was surprised that he was able to stop a shot Manuel Medina in his last fight. Watching a tape of Klassen I was a bit surprised that he looked as good as he did, and he even switched effectively from orthodox to southpaw. Seems to have better handspeed than Baloyi, and when he finds his rhythm, he likes to throw quick combinations. At 28 (reportedly), this is his chance to get a title and hold on to it, and he has only suffered one close loss (to Mzonke Fana) in the last seven years. At a reported 5’4, Klassen will have to overcome Baloyi’s size advantage with more than just speed, but he seems to have a good set of feet and balance. This will be the fight that defines Klasssen as an also ran, or launches him onto bigger fights on the world stage.
Verdict: A fascinating aspect to this fight is that these men are stablemates. Both are trained by Nick Durandt (who was reportedly staying in Baloyi’s corner), but I have not gotten word if they had sparred much against one another. Regardless, neither will have the fear of the unknown circling in their heads. This is a difficult fight to predict, since I am weary of a 34 year old veteran without one standout strength, and scared of hotshot youngsters who might have learned from past mistakes. I am reluctantly picking Baloyi, given his advantage in size and because he has trainer Nick Durandt in his corner. Klassen will look better over periods of time, but Baloyi’s skill will win out by unpopular split decision.
