If Manny Pacquiao is half as contentious in the ring on May 2nd as he was at the bargaining table the past few weeks, Ricky Hatton could be in for an uncomfortably long evening. Finally agreeing to a few adjustments in the contract and a proposed 52/48 split of gross revenue from the fight, promoter Bob Arum and Golden Boy Promotions executive, Richard Schaefer can both breathe sighs of relief, now that the first mega-fight of 2009 is all but signed, sealed and delivered. The question now is how and whether the outcome of Hatton-Pacquiao impacts the 135, 140 and 147 lb. divisions now and in the future.
Coming off his December 2007 10th Round TKO loss at the hands of Floyd Mayweather, Hatton rebounded nicely with solid wins over Juan Lezcano and Paulie ‘Magic Man’ Malinaggi. Many boxing fans have sniffed indignantly at those results, but in a sport where gate appeal trumps accomplishment, getting his name back ?in the mix? was far more important to the Englishman’s career than defeating a member of the pound-for-pound elite. The two victories in 2008 positioned Hatton for another big-money mega-fight and re-established him as one of the sport’s top gate attractions. And as mega-fights go, it doesn’t get any more ?mega? than a date with the Pac Man. Yes, a bout with perceived 140 lb. ?top dog? Tim Bradley would have been quite a treat, but the reality of the matter is that Hatton plans to fight only a few more times and with that being the case, he plans to maximize his earnings, and fighting a Bradley, Kendall Holt or Andreas Kotelnik just doesn’t make any ?cents?, at this point in his career. They are all superb fighters and may even go on to become superstars in the sport, but right now, Hatton is looking for fights with huge payoffs, and a match with any of the other 140 lb. champions won’t offer that at this time. It appears that Ricky learned more from Mayweather than how to avoid a ?check hook?!
Since it’s still possible that Pacquiao could opt to fight as a lightweight or a welterweight if the right (highly lucrative) fight is proposed, top fighters from both of those divisions will be watching anxiously when he steps into the ring with Hatton in May. It’s no secret that newly-crowned lineal lightweight champion, Juan Manuel Marquez would like nothing more than a third go at Pac Man. Whether he gets that chance or not hinges on the outcome of his upcoming title defense against former champion, Juan Diaz, in a fight that figures to be one of the toughest of his Hall of Fame career. Marquez may be hoping in vain, though, because Pacquiao probably believes that he has ?bigger fish to fry?, fish named Mayweather, Mosley, Cotto and until last Saturday night, Margarito. If he escapes with a victory over Hatton, it’s doubtful we’ll see Manny in the ring as a lightweight ever again, so that rules out a third Marquez scrap, but he be compelled to campaign again as a junior-welterweight? At the moment, there are no big-name superstars residing at 140 lbs. not named Hatton. Basically, all of the other junior-welterweights are fighting to position themselves to be the last champion standing in the division and very little of this will interest or influence Hatton’s immediate plans. And since Manny will be 31 later this year, his objective almost certainly has to be to migrate to the division with the biggest stars, and after taking care or business with Hatton that would be the welterweight division.
But what if Manny were to lose in May? In that event, expect to see Manny return to 135 lbs., closer to his most natural weight.
Shane Mosley’s shocking TKO of Antonio Margarito this past weekend suddenly throws yet another name into the mix of potential ‘Pac Man Sweepstakes’ entrants. After traveling back-and-forth between the welterweight and junior-middleweight divisions for the past six years, ‘Sugar Shane’ may have returned to the 147 lb. division for good. Looking strong, fast and amazingly agile against Margarito, Mosley now appears to be a fighter with many options, nearly as many options as Pacquiao. Having appeared to have very little future in the welterweight division after his close points loss to Miguel Cotto just over a year ago, and looking at the prospect of closing out his hallowed career in the 154 lb. division against the likes of Daniel Santos, Paul Williams and Vernon Forrest, the future Hall of Famer from Pomona, California has done the unthinkable and has once again made himself the man to beat in the welterweight division. It’s a crowded, deep and talented weight class, much like the junior-featherweight division, and has no shortage of fan-pleasing fights on tap, but before we begin visualizing a Mosley showdown with the winner of Pacquiao-Hatton, let’s not forget about the soon to be unretired former pound-for-pound king, Mayweather and the recent rumblings about his imminent return to the square circle. Looking at things from the standpoint of pure economics, Mayweather-Pacquiao is far more likely to take place than Mosley-Mayweather or Mosley-Pacquiao. Mayweather-Mosley will probably not happen because Mosley, despite his impressive skills and big fight experience, is still not a major player at the gate. This is theoretically an easier fight to make than Mayweather-Pacquiao because it won’t involve dealing with Bob Arum, whom Mayweather has a distinct aversion to. Mayweather would have to exhaust virtually all other possibilities before agreeing to a Mosley fight that would see him earn far less than the $20 Million plus he’s recently grown accustomed to, and that’s unlikely to happen. For an explanation of why Mosley-Pacquiao probably won’t happen, please see my rationale for Mayweather-Mosley not happening. Aside from that aspect of things, Pacquiao’s trainer, Freddie Roach, would probably never allow his prized pupil into the ring with a big, fast, experienced and iron-chinned welterweight like Mosley. Its doubtful Pacquiao would be able to outbox Mosley and after the blowout of Margarito, the chances of Pac Man effectively fighting inside against him would seem quite slim. Pacquiao is a natural junior-lightweight, while Mosley is a natural welterweight/junior-middleweight.
After the dust settles this May 2nd, expect to see Team Mayweather and Top Rank Promotions sit down and begin hammering out the details for a Mayweather-Pacquiao showdown for next fall. The negotiations won’t be smooth, as Mayweather and Pacquiao both believe deeply in their own box office appeal and wide fan base. Though Mayweather has made his contempt for Bob Arum quite clear in the past, he’s also astutely adopted ?If it makes cents, it makes money…? as his mantra going forward. Hence, ?money talks? and personal animus can take a flying leap! This is all predicated upon a Pacquiao victory on May 2nd, of course, and as we’ve discovered from Pavlik-Hopkins, Pacquiao-De La Hoya and Mosley-Margarito, it’s extremely unwise to assume or presume anything when it pertains to the outcomes of major boxing events.
